The end of the Soviet Union (09/01/91)

The end of the Soviet Union

by John Hewko

Revolutions breed strange bedfellows. On Saturday, August 24, the Communist majority and democratic minority in the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet (Parliament) by an overwhelming vote declared Ukraine an independent, sovereign state.

For the democratic opposition, the declaration marked the beginning of a new era, the opportunity to transform Ukraine into a pluralistic and market-oriented society. For many of the Communist deputies, the vote for independence was the culmination of a growing split in the party between hard-liners and those who favored Ukrainian sovereignty; for others it was an act of desperation: gripped by fear of Boris Yeltsin's all-out war on Russia's Communists, they saw an independent, yet Communist-dominated, Ukraine as their only hope for survival.

As the anti-Communist carnage in Moscow continues and gathers speed in Ukraine, it appears almost certain that the Communists will fail in their bid to maintain power in Ukraine. Seventy-four years of rule are over.

After the vote on independence, the Parliament adopted measures to depoliticize completely the Ukrainian KGB, police, army and all governmental agencies. All union property located in Ukraine was nationalized; the armed forces stationed on Ukrainian territory were put under the control of the republic's authorities.

On Sunday, August 25, the move against the Communist Party continued. The Parliament's Presidium decreed that all of the party's property in Ukraine be transferred to the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet and that all political prisoners be released.

The Kiev City Council ordered the militia to seal and occupy Communist offices in the capital; similar measures are reported to have been taken in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetske and other cities; in western Ukraine, all remnants of Communist rule have disappeared, as the local population has simply taken over party buildings.

Regardless of the outcome of Communism's last stand, Ukraine's declaration of independence has hammered the final nail into Mr. Gorbachev's coffin and virtually assured the political dissolution of the Soviet Union. The introduction in Ukraine of all of the attributes of an independent country, its own customs, currency, army, will render obsolete Mr. Gorbachev's concept of "renewed" federation.

At present, it is highly unlikely that Ukraine would even consider entering into a new union until after the December presidential elections and a new Ukrainian Constitution is approved. If a new union were eventually created, it would, in all likelihood, be along the lines of the European Community.

Ultimately, Ukraine's participation in a union with other republics will turn on its relationship with Russia. The democratic members of Parliament are calling for Russia and Ukraine to interact as fully independent countries which maintain a normal economic relationship through a mechanism of agreements and treaties. An attempt by Mr. Yeltsin and the Russian federation to preserve a "Great Russian" state would be a recipe for disaster and would reverse the tremendous steps toward democracy taken since the failure of the coup.

The Ukrainian declaration of independence and the disintegration of the party, however, leave unanswered several key issues.

On December 1, a Republican referendum is to be held to ratify the act of independence. Western Ukraine overwhelmingly voted for independence during Mr. Gorbachev's referendum and will certainly do the same in December. The outcome of the voting in the heavily industrialized and Russified provinces of eastern Ukraine, however, is not yet clear; a miraculous preservation of power by the Communists or a failure of the Ukrainian government to implement quickly economic and democratic reforms could give rise to cries in the eastern provinces to join Mr. Yeltsin's progressive and non-Communist Russia.

The events of the past week also did not result in the calling of new parliamentary elections or in a shake-up of the bureaucracy. Despite the wave of anti-Communist sentiment, it is not certain how soon the opposition will be able to force new elections. If elections are held, they would probably not occur until after the presidential elections slated for December 1. Thus, a question remains: will the current Parliament and upper-level bureaucracy, dominated by ex-Communists, be capable, at least in the short run, of taking the radical measures necessary to reform Ukraine's economy and to create the structures required for independence?

Finally, the events of last week have added considerable uncertainty to the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections. Prior to the coup, Leonid Kravchuk, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament, was widely considered the front-runner. However, Mr. Kravchuk has come under heavy criticism from the democratic opposition for what they feel was a failure immediately to condemn as unconstitutional and unlawful the activities of the instigators of the coup. The extent to which his performance during the first two days of the coup has affected his popularity remains to be seen.

The events in Moscow have dramatically hastened the inexorable and inevitable process of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The Communist debacle is over. The time has come for an independent Ukraine and Russia to give democracy a chance.

John Hewko is a U.S. attorney currently working in Kiev as an adviser to the Ukrainian Parliament. The views expressed in this article are strictly his own.