NEWS ANALYSIS: Ukraine not a nuclear bogeyman (01/17/93)

NEWS ANALYSIS

Ukraine not a nuclear bogeyman

by Borys Klymenko

Ukraine's procrastination in ratifying the START I treaty is, very simply, a means for this independent state to protect its own interests. It would be difficult to even imagine how, say, England or France would respond if the Russian Federation, the United States of America and China tried to pressure either of them to unilaterally begin total nuclear disarmament.

But, that is exactly what is happening to Ukraine - about which most government officials know only that it is home to 176 nuclear missiles. Demands are being made on Ukraine to immediately disarm itself. Furthermore, certain countries, adding their own interests to the equation, do not even attempt to calculate whether Ukraine would be able to accomplish this feat - even in the seven-year span provided for in START I.

On the eve of his departure for the United States, Deputy Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk told this correspondent: "Ukraine did not exert any special effort to obtain nuclear arms, and now it must direct its efforts at disarmament. However, given the economic crisis today facing Ukraine, this is not a priority."

President Leonid Kravchuk, when asked about the pressure being applied on Ukraine by other states, said: "There is pressure. And it must be so - that is the reality. The superpowers, which have taken upon themselves the role of guarantors of world security - that is the U.S. and the former USSR, now Russia - are concerned about the emergence of another nuclear power. Then the balance of power in the world will change. They are not concerned about our interests."

In regard to the U.S. pledge to allocate $175 million to Ukraine once the latter has ratified START I, President Kravchuk said he considers this, "thus far, merely a proposal." He commented: "But there is a long way to go from a proposal to realization. And what is $175 million when we need $1.2 billion just to destroy 130 missiles?" However, he stopped short of stating that ratification of the START pact is dependent upon receipt of such funds. "If for some reason we do not receive $1.2 billion we will not ratify the document - that simply is not the way we pose the question. Furthermore, we cannot insist on some definite sum - I am merely stating how much we would need."

Thus, one of the goals of the Ukrainian delegation's visit to the United States was to obtain additional funds so that Ukraine's financial burden in nuclear disarmament is decreased. Ukraine expects to obtain the assistance of all members of the nuclear club.

Ukraine's situation is complex also from the ecological perspective. On the one hand, the realization of the provisions of START II, which has just been signed by the Russian Federation and the United States, is dependent upon Ukraine's ratification of START I. On the other hand, Ukraine is technologically dependent upon Russia in terms of the dismantling of nuclear warheads and disposal of highly toxic missile propellant. Minister Tarasiuk, who headed the Ukrainian delegation visiting Washington, told the newspaper Holos Ukrainy before his departure that "significant portions of the safety mechanisms on most of the warheads located on the territory of Ukraine have already expired. After a certain time, when these mechanisms are no longer effective, no one will even attempt to dismantle these nuclear warheads - not even those enterprises that had collected them. This becomes dangerous." And, all these enterprises are located in Russia.

It is understood that Ukraine cannot but hurry to transfer to Russia those warheads whose safety mechanisms are expired. But, Ukraine would like to know the fate of these nuclear components. To date, Ukraine has no assurances from the U.S. that "it will not sign any draft agreement initialled by the U.S. and Russia concerning $5 billion in U.S. assistance until such time as Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement on compensation to be paid to Ukraine for the nuclear components contained in the strategic and tactical warheads that are its property," said Mr. Tarasiuk.

Ukraine was to begin negotiations on this issue with Russia in December, but now these talks are expected to begin no earlier than January 15.

In any case, no matter how negotiations with the U.S. and the Russian Federation proceed, Ukraine today needs guarantees of its national security. To be sure, no nuclear power can assume this responsibility without studying all its ramifications and considering all means of providing such assurances. At the same time, however, by delaying the granting of security guarantees, they force the Parliament of Ukraine to examine even more closely the provisions of START I and any agreements under which the security of a nuclear-free Ukraine would be guaranteed.

Thus far, Ukraine's position on its national security, as explained by Minister Tarasiuk, is as follows: "Nuclear powers should accept political responsibility in the form of an appropriate document that would state they will consider unacceptable any use or threat of force against Ukraine on the part of any nuclear state. To be sure, assumption of this responsibility does not, in and of itself, guarantee Ukraine's security, but it does have an important political-legal significance."

Ukraine today is a primary example of worldwide interdependence. And those countries who try to brand it as a "nuclear bogeyman" should listen to the words of President Kravchuk, addressed to the nations of the world on the occasion of the signing of START II by the U.S. and Russia:

"One must evaluate not only the delineation of approaches to the reduction of (nuclear) weapons arsenals, but also the policies of those states that voluntarily proceed toward a non-nuclear status."

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