EDITORIAL: Watching and waiting (12/17/95)

EDITORIAL

Watching and waiting

With Russia's parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on Sunday, December 17, it is now widely acknowledged that the Communists are expected to prevail. That, of course, is bad news for Russia, as the party platform is filled with Soviet-era concepts like zero unemployment, a halt to privatization and state protection for certain industries.

One of the reasons for this scenario is that Russia's reformers and democrats are splintered - so much so that Yelena Bonner, widow of Andrei Sakharov, has appealed to several of the parties, asking them to withdraw their candidates. "You are confusing the democratically oriented voters, and you are making the victory of Communist and nationalist [read chauvinist] forces much easier," she wrote.

A Communist victory in Sunday's parliamentary elections is bad news also for the huge Russian Federation's wary neighbors. Comrade Gennadiy Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party of Russia, pledged last week that he would scrap the agreement that led to the dissolution of the USSR and would work actively toward restoration of the Soviet Union. He told a meeting of Communists from territories across the former Soviet Union that the Belovezhskaya agreement - the so-called Slavic summit held December 7-8, 1991, that declared the USSR had ceased to exist - had brought Russia to its knees, and he called for a referendum "to allow for the re-creation of all that was destroyed."

That, coupled with rumblings in the Russian Federation about its role in the "near abroad," as well as a military doctrine which refuses to acknowledge that new independent states on former Soviet territory can determine their own destiny, does not bode well for this region. As noted by an analyst writing in Prism, Russia's military doctrine (adopted in 1993) was calculated to put "pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on other former republics of the USSR which had refused to need Moscow's cries and were trying to build their own states independent of the opinions and intentions of the Kremlin leadership." The doctrine "was directed toward creating and securing Russian dominant influence within the bounds of the former USSR, while assigning the other former republics the role of obedient younger brother."

In addition, Prism reports that the Russian General Staff is now working out a new military doctrine, taking into account possible expansion of NATO toward the east. Prism goes on to note: this document envisions "the redeployment of troops, including nuclear forces, to Russia's western border, and the sending of troops to the Baltic states if they join NATO."

All of which should be cause for concern, if not alarm, as the world watches and waits to see who will take charge in Russia.

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