Ukrainian journalists in Canada study influence of public opinion (01/07/96)

Ukrainian journalists in Canada study influence of public opinion

by Oksana Zakydalsky

TORONTO - The Center for the Study of Public Opinion at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, recently brought a group of 15 Ukrainian journalists, government policy analysts and academics to Canada for a series of seminars on the role of public opinion in democratic development.

The group was in Canada on October 19-November 4, 1995. In Toronto on November 3 they met with the Ukrainian community at the invitation of the Ukrainian Canadian Professional and Business Association of Toronto.

The Center for the Study of Public Opinion was established in 1994 and deals with research into public opinion and its role in political processes. The course, organized for the Ukrainian group by Prof. George Perlin, director of the center, had two purposes: to introduce the Ukrainians to issues in the study of public opinion in democratic states, and to show policy-makers and analysts the uses and limitations of opinion research in the policy process.

The participants of the course took part in an intensive program of seminars, lectures and meetings at Queen's University in Ottawa and Toronto. In organizing this pilot course, Prof. Perlin had long-term objectives: to develop opinion research courses for use in Ukraine, and to promote collaborative research between Ukrainian and Canadian scholars.

The Democratic Initiatives Center of Kyiv helped Queen's University identify persons in Ukraine who would benefit from the course. The project was financed by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and the Kyiv-based Renaissance Foundation.

At the Toronto meeting, Ilko Kucheriv, director of the Democratic Initiatives Center, introduced the group of visitors and spoke about the center.

The group included: three government policy persons, Viktor Nebozhenko and Serhii Turbovets from President Leonid Kuchma's staff, and Vyacheslav Lokshyn from the city of Kyiv; two sociologists, Iryna Bekeshkina and Serhii Makeev; two TV journalists, Volodymyr Skachko ("Nova Mova" program) and Veronika Sklyarenko (UTN); and five print journalists, Iryna Soporniuk (press officer, Democratic Initiatives), Natalya Filipchuk (Holos Ukrainy), Volodymyr Kartashov (Chas), Serhiy Naboka (Respublika) and Vitaly Suddya (Holos Ukrainy).

Established in 1992, the Democratic Initiatives Center is a Kyiv-based research organization specializing in public opinion polling and the analysis of political and social trends. During 1993-1994 the center was heavily involved in pre-election polling. Mr. Kucheriv said the center was the first to point out to then-President Leonid Kravchuk that there were problems with his popularity.

The center publishes the Political Portrait of Ukraine bulletins (in Ukrainian and English) and press releases dealing with public opinion issues. It makes its publications available to political leaders, journalists and political scientists free of charge.

After each survey, the center holds a press conference where analyses are made available to the media. It also organizes periodic seminars to discuss the latest public opinion data.

Mr. Kucheriv said the polling data provided by the centers are well regarded in Ukraine; there are frequent references to it in the Ukrainian media. The center is supported by the Renaissance Foundation and Freedom House.

Sociologist Iryna Bekeshkina gave an overview of the center's polling activities in Ukraine. She said that because Ukraine is a "partly democratic" country (a designation given by Freedom House), the opinions held by people are often ambivalent; that is, opinions that contradict each other are held at the same time.

This fact made the analysis of polling data difficult. For example, she said, most people support the privatization of land but when asked if people should be allowed to sell land, most people say no; most people support the privatization of small-and middle-sized enterprises, but not of large enterprises, and yet the majority supports change to a market economy.

Ms. Bekeshkina said public opinion in Ukraine differs significantly among three age levels. The youngest group, up to age 30, expects radical economic changes and rapid change to a market economy, is ready to rely on itself, expects nothing from the state and even believes that if the state did not interfere it would be able to cope better and bring about change more easily.

The middle group - age 30 to 55 - wants economic reform, but at a gradual pace. It is more cautious and fears radical change.

Those over 55 have, in general, the lowest standard of living and the most negative attitude to the new order and democracy, although, Ms. Bekeshkina added, if the state could guarantee them security, their attitude to the new society would probably change.

The euphoria with democracy at first declined gradually, Ms. Bekeshkina pointed out, but public opinion polls of 1994-1995 show that support for democracy has declined drastically. People are blaming democracy for not being able to cope with the new realities and many believe the president should take over decision-making and make the right decisions.

Ms. Bekeshkina brought the results of a poll taken of the residents of Kyiv on October 15-16, which asked questions in various issues, including the December 10 supplementary elections to Parliament.

The poll indicates extreme political apathy among the population of Kyiv: 45 percent did not even know that elections would be taking place. Of those who lived in districts where elections would be held, 32 percent did not intend to vote while 28 percent had not decided if they would vote.

To a question that asked whom the person trusted, the highest rating was given to President Kuchma (2.8), followed closely by the army (2.7) and the security forces (2.5). The lowest confidence rating was given to the Parliament (1.9).

The visitors gave a very positive evaluation of their program in Canada, although some mentioned that when courses on the study of public opinion are developed to be used in Ukraine, more input from persons who know Ukrainian conditions and needs would be necessary. The group was witness to one major expression of public opinion during their stay in Canada - the Quebec referendum.

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