EDITORIAL: Geopolitical allies? (03/03/96)

EDITORIAL

Geopolitical allies?

Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma characterized his February 20-22 visit to Washington, his second in 19 months in office, as marking a turning point in U.S.-Ukrainian relations. "I personally felt that now Ukraine is viewed as a state with an important role - one that guarantees stability, first of all in Europe," he told reporters in Kyiv on February 24.

In comparing last week's visit to the nation's capital with his official state visit in November 1994, Mr. Kuchma reflected that "very serious changes have occurred in our relations."

Indeed, in the span of 48 hours, Mr. Kuchma had 17 high-level meetings, including a 65-minute session with President Bill Clinton and one hour with Vice-President Al Gore.

His first meeting after touching down at Andrews Air Force Base was with International Monetary Fund Executive Director Michel Camdessus, who departed for Moscow after his meeting with the Ukrainian president to negotiate a sizable amount of money for Russia. Mr. Camdessus promised to release a held-up tranche of Ukraine's stand-by loan when Ukraine's Parliament passes a budget. The IMF director also said the fund will increase the amount of money available to Ukraine by $200 million and negotiate a new program with the country through the end of the century.

The Ukrainian president also had lunch with Secretary of State Warren Christopher and dinner with World Bank President James Wolfensohn.

Why such high-caliber meetings during a last-minute, private visit to the United States?

Political pundits in Ukraine claim that President Kuchma initiated the visit in order to solidify Ukraine's relationship with the United States during an election year in America. Pundits on this side of the Atlantic say the Clinton administration, fearing Russian President Boris Yeltsin will lose his presidential bid and Communist Party Chairman Gennadiy Zyuganov - or worse, ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky - will succeed him, wanted to be sure an independent, pro-Western Ukraine will guarantee some measure of stability in that region of the world.

In his speech at the Freedom Award banquet, Mr. Kuchma said that the shift in U.S. policy "from not accepting Ukraine as a truly independent state to seriously supporting its political sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity" has not gone unnoticed in his country and that "Ukraine will assist in encouraging constructive cooperation in Europe, particularly in mutual understanding between Russia and European structures."

The Ukrainian president told reporters in Kyiv that he knew his visit to the United States was upcoming. Has Mr. Kuchma accepted his country's role as guarantor of stability in the Western world? What was promised in return?

Ukraine was given membership in the exclusive commercial space launch club with the signing of the Commercial Space Launch Services Agreement, an expanded credit line with the IMF, permission to export close to 1 million more wool coats to the United States a year, and promises from the administration and the IMF to consult donor countries on Ukraine's needs in preparation for a Paris donor conference tentatively scheduled for September.

But, in light of Ukraine's historically aggressive northern neighbor, one must ask the question: is that enough to support the viability of this geopolitically important ally?

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