Vienna conference finds no clear consensus on the catastrophe's consequences (04/28/96)

Vienna conference finds no clear consensus on the catastrophe's consequences

by Ika Koznarska Casanova

VIENNA - Ten years after Chornobyl, no clear consensus can be reached on the effects and consequences of the nuclear catastrophe. This is perhaps the most obvious conclusion of the high-level international conference "One Decade After Chornobyl: Summing Up the Consequences of the Accident," which took place here at the Austria Center on April 8-12. The conference was organized jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Commission (EC).

Chaired by Germany's Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Dr. Angela Merkel, the conference was attended by over 1,000 delegates, scientists and politicians from the international community, including high-level official delegations from the three most affected republics: Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation.

The 10-member Ukrainian delegation was headed by Prime Minister Yevhen Marchuk. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka headed the delegation from Belarus.

Scientists and experts from Ukraine took part in the conference and participated in the drafting of background papers prepared in advance by expert panels that were used in the eight sessions of the technical symposium which made up the bulk of the conference proceedings.

The stated aim of the conference was to summarize, synthesize and draw conclusions on the health, ecological, socio-economic, psychological and political consequences of the accident that took place at Unit 4 of the Chornobyl nuclear plant on April 26, 1986.

In order to take stock of the present situation and to make the necessary recommendations for appropriate action, the Vienna conference tried to incorporate the findings of all work done to date, including the outcome of two major international conferences, one hosted last November by the WHO in Geneva, the other organized last month in Miensk under the auspices of the EC and the governments of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia.

The eight sessions of the technical symposium, in which the relevant background papers were introduced by a rapporteur followed by open discussions, covered the following topics: clinically observed effects in individuals exposed to radiation; thyroid effects in populations exposed to radiation; longer term health effects; environmental stress reactions; consequences for the natural and human environments; social, economic, institutional and political impact; nuclear safety remedial measures; and consequences in perspective: prognosis for the future.

In her remarks presenting the final conclusions and recommendations of the conference, Dr. Merkel recognized that "even 10 years after the disaster the consequences of radiation due to Chornobyl cannot be completely assessed."

Fundamental disagreements remain

It became evident throughout the conference that there are fundamental disagreements among experts, politicians, journalists and the informed public concerning even the number of fatalities that can be attributed to the radiation released after the nuclear accident - not to speak of the Ukrainian long-term health effects.

According to the newest data released by Ukraine's Ministry of Health, as quoted in the newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung (April 11), the number of victims of Chornobyl's radiation in Ukraine alone is estimated at 1,800.

IAEA spokesperson David Kyd, however, characterized this figure as "totally false." The official figures given by the report of the IAEA, WHO and EC, which according to Mr. Kyd have been "confirmed by politically unbiased scientific experts from East and West," are 28 victims killed by radiation in the year of the accident and 14 additional fatalities due to radiation in the succeeding years.

WHO representative Wilfried Kreisel added that "Ukraine is well-known for its tendency to inflate the number of victims, in order to receive more aid from the West."

The wide number of gaps, however, can be attributed not only to the different interests represented by the participating groups at the conference, but also to the inherent difficulties in ascertaining with absolute certainty the number of fatalities that can be attributed directly or indirectly to radiation effects from Chornobyl. Scientific experts, journalists and spokespersons from the Ukrainian Embassy in Vienna, when asked to comment on the controversy, all insisted on the need to exercise utmost caution when dealing with numbers.

The health of "liquidators"

In the conclusions of the closing session it was recognized, for instance, that there is a lack of sufficient knowledge about the state of health of the approximately 200,000 so-called "liquidators" from many parts of the former Soviet Union who worked in the disaster clean-up effort in 1986-1987, when the exposure to high-level radiation was most significant, and of the additional 600,000 persons who worked on ameliorating the accdient's consequences on contaminated territories and were exposed to lower levels of radiation.

Some studies have confirmed that the number of cases of leukemia among the liquidators is double the normal average rate, while the number of cases of thyroid cancer has increased fivefold. According to IAEA estimates, the number of anticipated additional cancer deaths among the liquidators is in the order of 2,500, with 2,500 additional cancer deaths expected among the approximately 3.7 million persons in the affected regions. Given the natural rates of cancer among a population of such a magnitude, however, the Chornobyl cases are not statistically significant and, therefore, tend to go unreported. Moreover, given the extremely deficient and highly unreliable official health statistics of the former Soviet republics, it is nearly impossible to establish credible comparisons of the health conditions of the population before and after the Chornobyl accident.

There was agreement, however, that the sharp increase in thyroid cancer, particularly among children, is the most manifest consequence of the disaster. According to Fred Mettler of the University of New Mexico, over 800 such cases have been reported so far, the majority of which were registered in Belarus, with an additional 4,000 to 8,000 expected.

Referring to the unexpected incidence of thyroid cancer, in particular among children, and its unusual type as well as to data indicating that an increased rate of leukemia has not yet been confirmed, Dr. Merkel went on to note "the projected number of affected persons is still determined exclusively by using the Hiroshima and Nagasaki data, and in light of the experience from the Chornobyl consequences, it has to be questioned if these models apply without any adaptation to different exposure situations."

The disaster's psychological effects

Perhaps the most relevant conclusion of the conference was the recognition of the tendency on the part of experts so far to underestimate or even to ignore altogether in their reports the widespread psychosomatically induced illnesses that can be attributed to Chornobyl, as well as the psychological and social consequences of the disaster. According to Dr. Merkel, "quite a large number of diseases, which are not considered to be induced by radiation, such as immune deficiency and gastritis, have been clearly on the rise. In addition to the distinct deterioration of general living conditions, this increase has to be attributed mainly to the psycho-social area."

In his background report for the fourth session, Prof. Terence R. Lee of the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, referring to "chronic environmental stress syndrome," discussed these diseases as well as the widespread public anxiety and pessimism about the Chornobyl accident, which to the experts appear to be out of all proportion to the radiation-induced health effects.

Dr. Merkel concluded that "the lack of credibility of experts and political leaders resulted in a feeling of anxiety and the experience of utter helplessness, and social trust was relinquished. ... Jointly we have to make every effort to ensure that these people regain a positive perspective for the future again."

Marchuk's keynote address

Prime Minister Marchuk, in his keynote address on the first day of the conference, confirmed the relevance of this newly recognized perspective when he said that "this man-made catastrophe, unprecedented in its scale and consequences, whose 10th anniversary we observe as we gather in this hall, is fixed in our consciousness as an event that separated two epochs. For the people of Ukraine 'before Chornobyl' and 'after Chornobyl' means two different worlds.

"The accident at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant doomed millions of people to suffering, has made them anxious about their children's future, has changed their environment and their very psychology," he stated.

The toughest discussions at the conference centered on the question of what is an acceptable standard for safety, especially with regard to RBMK reactors. Dr. Merkel, in her concluding remarks, noted that "personally, I would have hoped for a stronger statement on the closing down of the Chornobyl reactor as well as of other reactors which do not meet the safety standard required."

Notwithstanding the lack of consensus on many issues, one of the most important objectives of the conference appears to have been reached, namely, that the results of the proceedings will convince representatives of Western governments of the need to mobilize additional financial aid for the countries most affected by the catastrophe, and particularly to help Ukraine in its intention, confirmed by Prime Minister Marchuk at the conference, to decommission the Chornobyl plant by the year 2000.

Mr. Marchuk noted, however, that "without real, concrete financial assistance by the world community, Ukraine is unable to go through [with the shutdown] because of the difficult economic situation [the country is experiencing today]."

* * *

Members of Ukraine's official delegation at the conference included: Volodymyr Horbulin, national security advisor; V. Yazenko, chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Issues of the Chornobyl Catastrophe; M. Pavlovsky, chairman of the Parliament Committee on Nuclear Policy and Safety; Volodymyr Kholosha, minister of affairs for the protection of the population from the consequences of the Chornobyl accident; Yuriy Kostenko, minister of the environment and nuclear safety; K. Hryshchenko, deputy minister of foreign affairs; V. Breshniev, deputy minister of forestry; V. Lipinsky, chair of the State Committee for Hydrometeorology; and N. Nigmatullin, first deputy director of the State Committee for Atomic Energy Use.

Among the Ukrainian scholars and experts taking part in the conference were: Dr. O. Bobyleva, Ministry of Health; Dr. V. Bebeshko and Profs. I. Liktariev and A. Prisyazhniuk, Institute for Radiation Medicine; Prof. N. Tronko, Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism; Prof. N. Arkhipov, Prypiat Scientific and Technical Center; I. Ponomarenko, deputy minister of health; Prof. I. Wowk, IAEA, Vienna; and Prof. Y. Saenko, Institute of Sociology.

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