Elections in Russia portend tough times for Ukraine (06/23/96)

Elections in Russia portend tough times for Ukraine

by Marta Kolomayets
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - No matter who wins the presidential race in Russia, Ukraine is headed for some tough times with its northern neighbor, according to political observers in Kyiv.

"It may become another watershed for Ukrainian-Russian relations," said Petro Matiaszek, the director of the Council of Advisors to the Ukrainian Parliament, who worries that even if President Boris Yeltsin wins the run-off scheduled for early July, Aleksandr Lebed, his new secretary of the security council, may turn the tide in Russia from reforms and democracy to national chauvinism.

"The alliance between President Yeltsin and retired Gen. Lebed will increase the imperial pressure of the Russian leadership on Ukraine," added Rukh Party leader Vyacheslav Chornovil.

"And this presents a great danger to Ukraine, but the danger presented by Gennadiy Zyuganov, the Communist leader (who captured 32 percent of the vote, as compared to 35 percent for Mr. Yeltsin, 15 percent for Mr. Lebed and 7 percent for Grigori Yavlinsky), is even greater," said Mr. Chornovil, pointing out that often the devil you know is safer than the devil you don't.

Ukrainian government officials - though cautious in their statements - continue to support Mr. Yeltsin for president. President Leonid Kuchma, who had declared his support of President Yeltsin months before the election and endorsed Mr. Yeltsin at the recent CIS meeting in Moscow, told reporters during a June 19 news conference with Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev in Kyiv that "it is good that elections did take place in Russia, despite all the forecasts."

"This fact in itself is a great achievement of Russian democracy," he noted.

But, he did go on to say that "for Ukraine, it would be better if the current policy was continued in Russia."

Crimean Prime Minister Arkadiy Demidenko told Interfax-Ukraine that Mr. Yeltsin's victory is more favorable for Ukraine, explaining that "certain relations have been developed and agreements have been reached. If a new President comes, they will have to start anew."

"Gen. Lebed's third-place finish testifies to the fact that many Russians are nostalgic about a 'strong hand.' But nowadays it is impossible to solve problems with the help of force. The economy is the key factor," said the Crimean prime minister.

Presidential Chief of Staff Dmytro Tabachnyk told Interfax-Ukraine he hoped that the "people of Russia will make their choice in favor of democracy and human values, stability and well-being."

He added that "the hopes of the Ukrainian left-wing forces, and especially the Communist Party, for a landslide victory for Gennadiy Zyuganov have flopped."

But Ukraine's left-wingers were not as pessimistic, pointing to the fact that the margin between Messrs. Yeltsin and Zyuganov was very narrow.

Crimean Communist leader Leonid Grach called Mr. Zyuganov to congratulate him on his "good showing" in the elections. The candidate told Mr. Grach he feels very confident.

Mr. Grach also claimed that Zyuganov's victory will "signal a warming in relations between Ukraine and Russia," and this will allow the Crimean issue to be resolved positively.

And, he added, if Mr. Yeltsin is victorious, "the dictatorship will toughen and the Crimean card will be played out until the situation turns into a conflict."

Both Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko and Socialist Party head Oleksander Moroz, who is also the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament, have said that Mr. Zyuganov has a real chance of becoming the next president of the Russian Federation in the run-offs.

"Zyuganov has a real chance to beat Yeltsin," said Mr. Moroz, "provided that the election law is observed."

Mr. Symonenko told Interfax-Ukraine that if Mr. Zyuganov wins the run-off, "Ukraine is not going to lose its independence and sovereignty. We are convinced of this and have no doubts about it."

"His victory will help settle the problems of Ukrainian-Russian relations, and obstacles which disunite our people will be removed," said Mr. Symonenko.

Mr. Zyuganov has already said that if he wins the Russian presidency, his first trip abroad will be to Kyiv.

"The problem is that Ukraine is so dependent on Russia," added Ivan Lozowy, the director of the Institute on Statehood and Democracy in Kyiv. "So it becomes vulnerable and concerned about what is going on in Russia. And that has to change," he said.

"Even if Mr. Yeltsin is re-elected, a significant portion of the population has voted for Mr. Zyuganov and Gen. Lebed, and he will have to cater to that segment of the populace. So there will be a heightening of Communist and nationalist tendencies," said Mr. Matiaszek.

And that, coupled with the fact that Russia's new ambassador to Ukraine is Yuri Dubinin, a staunch Russian nationalist, underscores that pressure on Ukraine will continue to mount in the future.

Both Messrs. Matiaszek and Lozowy believe that even if Mr. Yeltsin wins the election next month, he may not serve out his full term. They speculate that he may be removed due to poor health and/or internal conflicts.

"And that is the time Ukraine has to be prepared for," explained Mr. Matiaszek, adding that there has not been a precedent of succession in Russia, and what can happen is anybody's guess.

Roman Zwarych, director of the Center of Democratic Reform in Kyiv, thinks it is not only Ukraine that should be concerned about the results of Russian elections.

"The elections - no matter who wins - will have negative repercussions not only for Ukraine, but for Eastern Europe and Europe in general," he said.

"One way for Ukraine to face the future with Russia is for it to develop a clear and aggressive foreign policy," said Mr. Zwarych. "And it should come up with a much clearer position on European security, expand its role in the Partnership for Peace and play its trump card by getting the United States and Russia to restart its talks on START II," he said.

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