ANALYSIS: Poll asks experts about NATO-Ukraine relations (02/09/97)

ANALYSIS: Poll asks experts about NATO-Ukraine relations

by Volodymyr Zviglyanich

NATO's proposed enlargement eastward has stirred debate among politicians and analysts, particularly with regard to its impact on Ukraine's relations with the West and Russia. In Ukraine, which occupies a strategic position between the countries of Central Europe, which want to join NATO, and Russia, which enters a new period of political struggle caused by President Boris Yeltsin's prolonged absence from public sight, the issue of NATO enlargement to the East is particularly important. Equally important is the opinion of experts and the population at large.

An expert poll on Ukraine and NATO

In late November-early December 1996, the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Center for Peace, Conversion and Conflict Resolution Studies and the Democratic Initiatives Sociological Center conducted an expert evaluation of relations between Ukraine and NATO.

The group of 44 specialists polled included representatives of the following social strata:

1) officials of the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, and researchers of advisory bodies to the government (e.g., the National Institute for Strategic Studies);

2) officers of the military forces of Ukraine (the lowest rank was lieutenant-colonel), including professors and specialists of higher military educational institutions and research centers, most of them with scholarly degrees;

3) deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, including members of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and Relations with the CIS and the Committee on Defense and State Security; and

4) leading journalists specializing in international issues and representing the most influential mass media.

The experts' positions

The first question was: "If it were up to you to decide whether or not Ukraine was to become a member of NATO, what would you decide?" The experts' opinions can be divided into following categories:

"Alarmists" (It is imperative that Ukraine immediately join NATO, i.e., despite the absence of necessary preconditions for such a move) - 23.8 percent.

Trying to justify their standpoint, these experts mentioned the necessity of defending Ukraine's national security and territorial integrity, and noted that Russia is seen as a threat. The necessity of joining a collective security system, of European integration, improbability of the USSR's restoration - the arguments common to all pro-NATO groups - also were mentioned.

However, this group is over-optimistic in its evaluation of NATO's tasks and opportunities. It revealed an incomplete understanding of the nature of this organization and its current policy. For example, one of the "alarmists" wants to join NATO "together with Russia in order to restrain the expansion of Western civilization in cooperation with it" (the West).

"Strong supporters of NATO" (Ukraine should become a member within three to four years; joining NATO remains a strategic goal toward which Ukraine should move consistently) - 26.2 percent.

Experts belonging to this category stress that Ukraine is not yet ready to join NATO. First it must "adopt a proper military doctrine and work out a program of actions preparing Ukraine for joining NATO." This includes the development of infrastructure, increasing safety standards at military installations, and resolving all border disputes and other historical disagreements with neighbors (Russia and Romania, first and foremost).

Corresponding changes in the public mentality also are needed for a better understanding of Ukraine's attitude toward NATO. One of the experts in this group implies that "in three to four years Ukraine will have its lobbyists in NATO from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland."

"Weak supporters of NATO" (Ukraine should become a member within five to 10 years, during which time there would be room for maneuvering regarding the state of relations between NATO and Russia, Russia and Ukraine, etc.) - 33.3 percent.

The experts in this group stress that, "due to the very difficult economic and social conditions, non-restructured economy, unfinished state-building process and lack of reforms in the army, it is unrealistic to join NATO within a short period of time." Stabilization of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe also is necessary for Ukraine to be treated equally.

"Opponents of NATO" (Ukraine should never become a member under any circumstances) - 16.7 percent.

The core of experts in this group consists of left-wing members of the Verkhovna Rada. However, some of them today side with patriots and thus have backtracked from the statement made by their leader, Chairman Oleksander Moroz, in November 1996: "I don't care whether the doors of NATO are open and whether they exist at all."1

This group of experts maintains that relations with Russia could deteriorate significantly if Ukraine joins NATO. The underlying idea is that "our economic and spiritual interests are in Russia; we should be oriented toward it." Remarkably enough, almost no one completely rejects cooperation with NATO (one national deputy considers NATO "an enemy" structure). Another basic idea expressed by experts in this group could be summarized as follows: "Now it is impossible, later it is unnecessary."

Evaluation of opinions

The results of the poll stress the political elite's inclination to join NATO and to develop multidimensional cooperation with the alliance. An overwhelming 88.5 percent of the experts polled think joining NATO does not contradict Ukraine's national interests. Only 12.2 percent have an opposite view, while 2.44 percent didn't have an opinion.

At the same time, another poll conducted by SOCIS-Gallup and the Democratic Initiatives Sociological Center revealed poor knowledge among the population at large about NATO and its activity. Nineteen percent of the 400 Kyiv residents polled said Ukraine should never join NATO; 45 percent were undecided. Twelve percent of respondents said they trust NATO, 19 percent do not trust it, 28 percent neither trust nor mistrust it, and 41 percent were undecided. Those who supported joining NATO were mostly young people, university graduates and those who favor private enterprise. Knowledge about NATO may be rated a 2.2 on a five-point scale. The NATO Information Center in Ukraine has much to do to fill the information gap in public opinion about the alliance's activities.

The experts were also asked: "If the issue of Ukrainian admittance to NATO were posed to a national referendum, to what extent would it be supported by the Ukrainian population?" They replied that there would not be large public support: 51.2 percent of the experts evaluated the extent of support as "medium" and 35.5 percent as a "small," while 9.3 percent failed to find an answer.

At the same time, the experts evaluating the effectiveness of the Individual Partnership Program (IPP) between NATO and Ukraine, rated it 3.2 on a 5-point scale. Peacekeeping, humanitarian and other similar operations were rated 3.51, while the Partnership for Peace program got 3.5.

One of the military experts whose general evaluation of the IPP is 3 points, stressed that the "IPP is well implemented only on paper, and it is the leadership of the Defense Ministry which is to blame."

Right-wing members of the Verkhovna Rada are those who enthusiastically applaud cooperation with NATO and are an actual or potential lobby for NATO. As such, they were mentioned by 88 percent of the experts. The centrists in the Verkhovna Rada, the chief staff of the Ministry of Defense and army generals, leaders of financial and banking businesses, and officers of the armed forces were mentioned by 26 to 29 percent of the experts.

It is important to increase the number of pro-NATO officials among the state leaders protecting the military-industrial complex's interests and among arms producers. Without their support, the idea of Ukraine joining the alliance is doomed to failure.

Thus far, leaders of the military-industrial enterprises oriented toward cooperative links with Russia occupy third place among all opponents to rapprochement with NATO (60.5 percent).

First and second places are occupied by pro-Russian politicians (86 percent) and left-wing members of the Verkhovna Rada (81 percent).

The list of priorities for Ukraine's cooperation with NATO is as follows:

1) providing additional security guarantees to Ukraine;

2) assisting with implementation of military reforms;

3) creating conditions for Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO;

4) training personnel;

5) participating in peacekeeping operations;

6) assisting in elaboration of a military policy;

7) joint maneuvers;

8) weapons trade and services;

9) coordinating military strategy and armament policy;

10) maintaining the military-industrial complex.

The experts polled consider expansion of the zone of stability and security in Europe and prevention of regional conflicts as the chief goal of NATO's eastward enlargement (58 percent). Other NATO goals were cited as follows: adjusting to new realities in the post-Cold War era - 51 percent; creating military preconditions to curb Russian expansionism - 46.5 percent; filling the security vacuum in the region - 39.5 percent; supporting integration into European structures - 34.9 percent.

However, 25.6 percent of the experts consider NATO's enlargement to be a means of enforcing America's hegemony in the region as the only superpower remaining after the collapse of the USSR.

Current Ukrainian policy is oriented at expanding cooperation with NATO and supporting NATO's eastward expansion. This policy receives the support of 50 percent of the experts polled and is viewed as corresponding to Ukraine's national interests.

At the same time, 19 percent of the experts believe that current policy puts Ukraine in the position of a buffer state between NATO and the Tashkent Treaty countries headed by Russia, while 14 percent think it will undermine the stability of relations with Russia. Among those who see the negative aspects of NATO's enlargement, only 2.4 percent openly characterize it as contradictory to Ukraine's interests.

The experts gave high ratings to the Verkhovna Rada leadership's stance on cooperation with NATO and its enlargement, based on the criterion of meeting Ukraine's national interests (3.7 on a 5-point scale). However, they underlined that there is a lack of clarity and coordination of positions among various branches of power on the NATO issue.

Conclusion

The majority of the experts polled gave a positive evaluation to the consequences of Ukraine joining NATO. Between 59 and 75 percent of them mention among such consequences: creation of proper conditions for the reform and modernization of Ukraine's military forces; Ukraine's membership in the club of developed market democracies with effective international security guarantees; strengthening of security throughout Europe; and creation of an effective system of civil control over the military.

Today there is a pro-NATO majority among the political elite in Ukraine. Whether it will succeed or lose depends on Russia's policy in the region, current and future policies of Russian leaders toward Ukraine, and international support for Ukraine's integrity.

1 Kyievskiye Viedomosti, November 20, 1996.

Dr. Volodymyr Zviglyanich is adjunct professor of East European area studies at George Washington University.

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