Electorate in Ukraine distrusts leaders, Communist Party most popular, says poll (12/21/97)

Electorate in Ukraine distrusts leaders, Communist Party most popular, says poll

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - Newly released results of a public opinion poll show that, early in this election campaign to the Verkhovna Rada, the Communist Party remains the most popular in Ukraine and has Ukrainian citizens' confidence to deal more effectively than any other party with a crisis. However, the most striking result is that a large portion of the electorate is simply disenchanted with the current leaders and the political situation in the country.

In the survey taken in November by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute and the University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy sociology department, 2,129 respondents were given a list of the 18 largest political parties in Ukraine and asked which party they would vote for if elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held today. The respondents gave the nod to the Communist Party 11.6 percent of the time. Rukh followed with 6.9 percent, and the Democratic Party of Ukraine took 4.3 percent. (The poll's margin of error was 2.6 percent.)

However, 29.7 percent said they would vote for none of the 18 listed parties.

Voters who will take part in the Verkhovna Rada elections, which are scheduled in March 1998, for the first time will make two selections because of the new law on elections passed in October. In accordance with the new mixed electoral system they will vote once for the political party of their choice and then for a candidate running in their district. The 450 seats in the Verkhovna Rada will be split, with political parties that gain at least 4 percent voter support divvying up half the seats proportionally to the amount of the electorate's vote they receive, and the other half of the available seats filled by individuals directly elected from the 225 electoral districts of Ukraine.

The poll indicates that few parties will achieve the necessary 4 percent threshold to claim any seats in the legislature. Only the Communists, the Democrats and Rukh overcame that margin in the poll.

In another question, the respondents were asked which political grouping they would support "if the situation in Ukraine became critical." Seventeen percent put more faith in the Communists than in the Socialists, Social-Democrats, Liberals, National Democrats or Radical Nationalists, which were the other options. The National Democrats came in second with 12.1 percent.

But, again, the extent of apathy in Ukraine and disregard for the political forces active in Ukraine was apparent. Almost one-third (31.3 percent) of the respondents said they had faith in none of the political groupings.

Respondents were asked also to rate 12 national political figures on the basis of how much trust they had in them (ranging from complete trust to complete distrust).

Most expressed little trust for the leaders listed, especially for the most well-known politicians. Leading the poll in terms of distrust was Pavlo Lazarenko, the former prime minister and current leader of the Hromada Party, who was "not trusted at all" by 31.1 percent of the respondents. He was followed by President Leonid Kuchma and Rukh Party leader Vyacheslav Chornovil at 27.3 percent; Verkhovna Rada Chairman Oleksander Moroz at 26.7 percent, and the leader of the Communist Party, Petro Symonenko, at 20.4 percent.

When asked which institutions were held in highest esteem, about one-third of the respondents turned thumbs down to each of the major government institutions: the presidential administration, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Constitutional Court, and local and regional administrative bodies.

The respondents expressed some respect only for religious institutions and the military.

The poll also suggested that the number of people who desire a return to an authoritarian political-economic system is on the rise. In a similar survey taken in 1995, in which respondents were asked whether they supported a monocentric totalitarian system, 45 percent of respondents said yes. In 1997 that number has risen to 57 percent. Meanwhile, those supporting a liberal-democratic political and economic system has fallen from 34 percent in 1995 to 30 percent today.

However, the nostalgia for a return to an old system did not transform into a desire for the return of the Soviet Union. When asked where they saw Ukraine's future, 44.1 percent of respondents stated that they saw it in a system comparable to ones in the West, while only 28.4 percent said they would like a return to a renewed Soviet Union.

| Home Page |