Choices galore in Parliament elections as over 3,000 candidates are registered
by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau
KYIV - So many candidates and parties have registered for the Verkhovna Rada elections slated for March 29 that observers fear voters will have a difficult time making a smart decision, which may foster disenchantment with the democratic process.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) reported on February 11 that 4,643 people had announced their candidacies to the Verkhovna Rada elections, and with hours to go before the deadline 3,293 candidates had met all the requirements to be registered by the CEC in the 225 single-mandate districts of Ukraine.
Earlier, 30 parties had registered in a new mixed election system in which each voter will make two choices: one for the political party he supports and the other from a list of candidates registered in the district.
The chairman of the CEC, Mykhailo Riabets, said that, as in 1994, the candidates have again packed the ballots. "There is an average of eight candidates registered in each district, and in some districts more than 20 candidates will be on the ballot," said Mr. Riabets. In the city of Kyiv one electoral district has 49 registered candidates.
Although the large number of candidates on the ballots appears to be a glowing pronouncement of democracy in full bloom, Ilko Kucheriv, director of the sociological survey organization Democratic Initiatives, in part funded by the U.S.-based National Endowment for Democracy, said it could dim a desire for the democratic process.
"The electorate is going to be disoriented," said Mr. Kucheriv. "It is going to be difficult to make a choice. People will be confused and ultimately disenchanted. It is not good for building confidence in democracy."
Mr. Kucheriv said that in the single-mandate voting, independent candidates who have little support, but do have money, could win in many districts simply by advertising extensively, which would give them name recognition among the voters. "They could buy the elections," he said.
The new election law, passed last autumn, stipulates that half the Verkhovna Rada will be chosen according to electoral support for individual political parties, with each party given seats according to the proportion of the vote it receives, while the other half will come from 225 electoral single-mandate districts, where both party representatives and independents are allowed to run.
In the vote for political parties the appeal of a well-recognized name on the ballot has not been lost on political organizations. Since the March 29 ballot will list the 30 registered political parties along with the top five names on each party's candidate list, parties have packed the top of their candidate lists with well-known political, sports and entertainment figures in hopes of attracting voters to their ticket. The Social-Democratic Party (United) has included the well-know owner of the Dynamo Soccer Club, Hryhorii Surkis, while Rukh's top five includes the heralded Ukrainian folk singer Nina Matvienko.
But an extensive survey done in January by Democratic Initiatives in conjunction with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies, which questioned 10,000 voters in all of Ukraine's regions, found that the Communist Party, one party that has refrained from pushing celebrity, remains the strongest.
The poll - the largest ever conducted in Ukaine - shows the Communists winning 11.2 percent of the vote. Falling in behind them is the right-of-center Rukh, at 9.5 percent. Then comes the Socialist Party/Agrarian Party coalition at 6.3 percent, followed by the National Democratic Party, considered the party of power and led by Prime Minister Valerii Pustovoitenko, at 5.6 percent. Next in line are the Social Democratic Party (United) of Leonid Kravchuk and Yevhen Marchuk at 4.5 percent and Pavlo Lazarenko's Hromada Party at 2.6 percent. (See Table 1)
Mykola Pohrebynskyi, director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies, said two parties, Rukh and Hromada, had markedly improved their position in the last two months. "Rukh has gained the most - almost two points," said Prof. Pohrebynskyi. Because a party must attain at least 4 percent of the electoral vote before it can obtain a single seat in the Verkhovna Rada under current law, the results of the Democratic Initiative poll suggest that only four parties, as of January, are capable of such an achievement.
However, Hromada, which Prof. Pohrebynskyi explained had almost no voter recognition last year, now has a considerable and growing base of support. "In the last month Hromada has climbed dramatically and now also has a chance," he said.
As many as nine political parties could pass the 4 percent barrier on March 29, because 46 percent of the respondents were undecided, predicted Prof. Pohrebynskyi. He explained that the survey was structured so that it only considered people who were at least fairly sure that they would vote.
However, the landscape for the by-party election could change even more drastically if Ukraine's Constitutional Court decides that the 4 percent barrier is unconstitutional. The court is currently reviewing the election law, which Prof. Pohrebynskyi believes may result in a decision that the 4 percent barrier is unconstitutionally exclusive. The court could decide to lower that threshold.
"There is a chance that the 4 percent barrier may be eliminated altogether," Prof. Pohrebynskyi said.
He believes such a decision would considerably lessen the number of seats the Communist Party could take. He suggested that having no barrier would most benefit the center, while a scenario that would include a 4 percent barrier with seven parties making the cut would give leftist political parties the most seats in the new Verkhovna Rada. (See Table 2)
He explained that 9.9 percent of the support for centrist parties is diffused among several lesser parties that would not get seated if they needed to obtain 4 percent of the electoral vote.
"The center has the most strength, about 22.6 percent," pointed out Prof. Pohrebynskyi, "but nearly half is among parties that won't make the mark."
Prof. Pohrebynskyi also said that although his studies suggest the youth vote would considerably aid the political center and right, there is no reason to expect such support. "Unfortunately, the youth do not want to vote," he explained. "Those who do are supporting pro-business forces. But most are not going to vote."
| Parties (blocs) | Percent |
Total % | |
| Left | Communist Party | 11.2 |
20 |
| Socialist + Peasants Parties | 6.3 | ||
| Others (3 parties) | 2.5 | ||
| Center | National Democratic Party | 5.6 |
22.6 |
| Social-Democratic Party | 4.5 | ||
| Hromada | 2.6 | ||
| Others (19 parties) | 9.9 | ||
| Right | Rukh | 9.5 |
11.4 |
| Others (5 parties) | 1.9 | ||
| Total of all above | 54 |
54 | |
| Undecided | 46 |
| Scenario | Left |
Center |
Right |
| Without 4% barrier | 81 |
113 |
31 |
| With 4% barrier, 10 parties | 85 |
110 |
30 |
| With 4% barrier, 7 parties | 103 |
86 |
36 |
Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, February 15, 1998, No. 7, Vol. LXVI
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