State Department official offers pre-election analysis of Ukraine (03/08/98)

State Department official offers pre-election analysis of Ukraine

Ukrainian National Information Service

WASHINGTON - The Kennan Center of the Woodrow Wilson Institute on February 13 sponsored a lecture titled "Elections in Ukraine" which featured a pre-election analysis by Jack Segal, director, Western Slavic and Moldovan Affairs, U.S. Department of State. Mr. Segal, who recently returned from Ukraine where he had participated in the U.S.-Ukrainian Binational Commission meeting on foreign policy, briefed the audience on his impressions of the upcoming elections. In his opinion "few people are interested in the elections or expect the elections to change things."

With less than a month left before the elections, campaigning becomes increasingly important and financing campaigns is crucial. Currently, there are no spending limits, which greatly benefits the larger parties. An important effort to create a more level playing field is the provision for 15 minutes of free regional airtime for all candidates to articulate their platforms. Mr. Segal also noted the presence of hundreds of domestic and foreign election monitors to observe the elections.

Mr. Segal stated that the focus of the elections is on Ukraine's "economic deterioration." Unemployment and a collapse of productivity represent the main concerns. Problems revolve around high foreign debts and the recycling of those debts. Also targeted, as factors hindering economic development, are high levels of corruption, over-regulation, and bureaucratization. These factors according to Mr. Segal have caused many investors to label Ukraine the "hardest place to do business in the former Soviet Union." Mr. Segal did, however, offer optimism for the longterm explaining that "Ukraine is a sleeping giant that is in trouble but has high potential." However, Mr. Segal doubts that the inadecuate economic situation will be affected by the elections.

Another important issue is the political climate not only of Ukraine, but of the region in general. Democracy and transition matter to Ukrainians and Mr. Segal noted that Ukrainians are happy with the success of democratic transition because Ukraine is viewed as a country of geo-strategic importance. While President Kuchma maintains a pro-Western stance, including increased relations with NATO and its members, these foreign policy goals remain mainly the focus of the political leadership, with little, or no, interest expressed by the Ukrainian people.

Mr. Segal also spoke of recent pre-election legislative developments in Ukraine, specifically, the proposed legislation to erase the 4 percent threshold to win seats in Parliament. He expects this measure to be approved for two main reasons: it would dilute the Communists' power and numbers in Parliament, and it would provide President Kuchma with an "undecided" cushion. However, such action could also further limit the Parliament's effectiveness.

Recent public opinion polls were examined as well. The Communist Party remained first in the polls with 11 percent of popular support, followed by Rukh (9 percent), Socialist & Peasant Block (6 percent), National Democratic Party (5.6 percent), Social Democrat Party-United (4.5 percent), and "Hromada" (2.6 percent). The key factor in determining the composition of the new Parliament hinges on the 45 percent of voters who are still undecided.

In conclusion, Mr. Segal stated that the Ukrainian people admit that they have seen worse, and they are positive "the future will only get better." The current situation in Ukraine, argued Mr. Segal, presents a "truly daunting agenda and future for whoever controls the government."