BOOK REVIEW: Norwegian author's study focuses on Ukraine and European security (09/13/98)

BOOK REVIEW

Norwegian author's study focuses on Ukraine and European security

Ukraine and European Security, Chatham House Papers by Tor Bukkvoll. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs and Pinter, 1997. ISBN 1-85567-465-3 and 1-85567-464-5. ix + 129 pgs.

by Taras Kuzio

This important and elucidating contribution to Ukrainian studies is conveniently divided into an introduction and three chapters. It is a testament to the growing interest in Ukrainian affairs among a broad section of journalists, policy-makers, governments, think tanks and academia. Tor Bukkvoll is a lecturer at the Norwegian Military Academy, and the book was written with the financial sponsorship of the Norwegian Ministry of Defense and the German-based Volkswagen Foundation.

In the introduction Mr. Bukkvoll provides three reasons that Ukraine is central to European security. First, a Ukrainian independent state is a "defining feature of the future European security architecture." Second, Ukraine will help determine Russia's future transformation. Finally, there have been exaggerated claims about the alleged fragility of the Ukrainian state that could be a potential threat to regional security.

Chapter 2 discusses domestic threats to Ukrainian security within the realm of its democratization, marketization, civil-military relations and center-periphery relations. The author concludes that Ukraine has made tremendous strides in its democratization process, that reformist parties and parliamentary factions are moving closer to the national democrats on questions of statehood and that the military has not become involved in politics. Mr. Bukkvoll does point to a problem area; namely, that the armed forces still include within the top ranks of the officer corps many Russians whose loyalty is questioned by Ukrainian nationalists.

Chapter 3 surveys ethnic mobilization and separatism. This chapter is probably the best in this study because it rejects the traditional analysis found in most Western studies of a Ukraine allegedly divided into a "nationalist West" and a "pro-Russian East." In fact there are no political parties in eastern Ukraine that advocate separatism.

In southern Ukraine, meanwhile, "little or no organized anti-independence political activity exists" and, "since Ukraine became independent in 1991, attempts at mobilization against its independence in ESU [eastern-southern Ukraine] have been few and scattered." Left-wing and inter-front parties and groups demand "reunification" with the other former Soviet republics or with the eastern Slavs; they do not advocate separatism. The local elites in eastern-southern Ukraine are pro-Ukrainian, while among the population at large, Mr. Bukkvoll rightly points out, there is an identity transition under way.

Regionalism, which exists in this region in the form of demands for economic de-centralization and local self-government, should not be confused as separatism. The only example of separatism that Mr. Bukkvoll points to is that in Crimea, where he believes that it only suffered a "temporary defeat" in 1995, a region where the Tatars could become a threat to stability.

Chapter 4 discusses Ukrainian-Russian relations within the context of ongoing problems that exist between the countries, as well as Russia's inability to accept Ukrainian independence as a permanent feature. Mr. Bukkvoll points to the similarities in the foreign policies of Ukraine's two post-Soviet presidents. Ironically, the administration of Leonid Kuchma is adopting more concrete measures to return Ukraine to "Europe" than that of Leonid Kravchuk, during whose presidency there were more "declamations" than "real achievements."

Mr. Bukkvoll looks at the various scenarios that could unfold if certain types of leaders are in power in Russia and Ukraine. The most likely, in this reviewer's view, is scenario three, "moderates in Ukraine and nationalists in Russia." A moderate Ukrainian leadership would still value good relations with Russia, including it within its definition of "Europe." Nevertheless, "the Ukrainian moderates will also keep a certain distance from Russia." This seems to sum up nicely the Kuchma leadership.

The study, though well written, does suffer from some mistakes. The 1994 parliamentary elections did not bring a "left-wing majority" to power, a claim made by many Western authors. The three left-wing parties only obtained one-third of the parliamentary seats.

The Constitution of June 1996 did not deliberately exclude the text of the national anthem to appease the left. The lyrics in the national anthem are outdated ("Ukraine has not yet perished"), and therefore a public competition was launched for new lyrics to accompany the music.

The parliamentary faction Statehood (1994-1996) never included members of the two radical right parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian National Assembly and the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists. Although the author wrote off the New Ukraine bloc, it is precisely this bloc that is slated to be President Kuchma's 1998-1999 election bloc. The last presidential elections took place in July 1994 (not 1995).

It is also difficult to see where Mr. Bukkvoll would draw the line within Ukraine when he talks about it unraveling "along ethnic lines" and where the "ethnic division of the country" would actually be. There are no "ethnic lines" in Ukraine, apart from that which separates it from the Crimean peninsula. If these "ethnic lines" existed, there would be more demands other than just those from Crimea for political autonomy within Ukraine.

Overall, Mr. Bukkvoll has produced a valuable contribution to the growing Western literature on contemporary Ukrainian security policy.

The writer is research fellow at the Center for Russian and East European Studies, the University of Birmingham.

| Home Page |