Talbott calls for realism about Russia (11/15/98)

Talbott calls for realism about Russia

RFE/RL Newsline

STANFORD, Calif. - In an address given at Stanford University on November 6, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott suggested the U.S. and the West adopt a realistic but not pessimistic perspective on events in Russia. He asserted that Russia is not necessarily "a troika-wreck waiting to happen" and called for "realism about the complexity of the challenges and uncertainty Russia faces."

He said it is still "too early to proclaim Russian democratization irreversible" since "the longer the economic meltdown continues," the harder it will be for Russia to sustain the institutions and habits required for "political normalcy."

While he cautioned that the U.S. and Russia "may be in for heightened tensions over security and diplomatic issues," he also noted that "virtually every issue between [the U.S. and Russia] can be boiled down to matters of mutual interest and mutual benefit."

Mr. Talbott also concluded that Russia will "never again be a monolith" because of its pattern of regional differentiation with "oases of liberalization" in Nizhnii Novgorod, Samara, Leningrad and Sverdlovsk oblasts on one hand and "Jurassic-like theme parks of Soviet-era policies and personalities," such as Kursk, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Pskov and Volgograd oblasts on the other.

He noted that while aid from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund will have to wait until Russia appears willing "to make difficult structural adjustments," the U.S. will remain engaged in key areas.

He said that Western energy companies continue to want to invest into Russia's oil sector, which will need close to "$15 billion a year for the next seven or eight years just to get back to 1988 production levels."

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