NEWS ANALYSIS: Belarus opposition unites to protest merger with Russia (01/31/99)

NEWS ANALYSIS

Belarus opposition unites to protest merger with Russia

by David R. Marples

Three Belarusian opposition leaders have criticized the signing of the December 25, 1998, agreement to merge Belarus with Russia as a "crime against the Belarusian nation. "The signatories to the protest were Stanislau Shushkevich, the former parliamentary chairman who was the de facto leader of Belarus from August 1991 to January 1994; Mechyslau Hryb, the former prime minister; and Semyon Sharetsky, chair of the Parliament of the 13th session, which was dissolved and revamped by the president following a controversial referendum in November 1996. By that same referendum, President Alyaksander Lukashenka had extended his mandate to November 2001 rather than July 1999.

Hitherto, the members of the old Parliament have rarely acted in unison. On December 29, 1998, the three opposition leaders sent a letter to Russian President Boris Yeltsin maintaining that to change the status of Belarus would be in violation of the 1994 Constitution, and would represent an occupation reminiscent of the Russian annexation of the three Baltic states in the summer of 1940. At the same time they appealed to all those opposed to the Lukashenka administration to join forces and renounce any infighting.

What are the prospects for success of this campaign? Previously the Lukashenka administration has treated the opposition contemptuously, secure in the knowledge that it has a strong mandate from the population. The power of the presidential administration has grown, the government controls the official press just as in the Soviet period, and the regime has frequently violated the most basic of human rights.

The opposition is basing its hopes on three issues. First, the constitutional crisis. Already a serious candidate has emerged to challenge Mr. Lukashenka for the presidency: Henadz Karpenka, chairman of the United Civic Party. Most political parties intend to boycott elections to the rump Parliament scheduled for April, and most will demand that President Lukashenka stand for re-election this year.

The second issue is the economic crisis. In the recent past, Belarus's weak economic position has been concealed by trade with Russia and overproduction of unwanted goods. Today there is an obvious gap between official statistics, which report an annual growth rate of over 10 percent last year, and the reality of food shortages and inflation at around 160 percent in 1998 - almost three times the 1997 rate. Warehouses are overstocked with unsold goods, and almost no private enterprise is thriving in Belarus. The president's frequent assertions that a state-run economy would shield the population from hardship have been shown to be false.

The third issue is the proposed merger with Russia. It can be regarded with some skepticism since a ratified Russia-Belarus Union is already in place. It was signed on April 2, 1997 - this day is now a national holiday in Belarus. The main difference between the current agreement and that of 1997 is the proposal to establish the Russian ruble as the common currency by the year 2000. Many oppositionists maintain that the merger will enable Mr. Lukashenka to make a bid for the Russian presidency and in this way to avoid the question of the 1999 presidential elections in Belarus. President Lukashenka has made common cause with some prominent provincial governors of Russia, while the merger is popular both among the Russian Communists and the maverick Krasnoyarsk governor, Aleksandr Lebed.

While Mr. Lukashenka has stressed the benefits of the merger for Belarusian security, the opposition clearly believes that the Belarusian public does not wish to relinquish the independence gained in 1991. Several states, including Ukraine and Georgia, have declared that they would not give up their independence in this way. Of the former Soviet republics, only Belarus is likely to rejoin Russia. But Belarus, with its population of 10.1 million, within Russia would be a border province with little clout because it lacks the natural resources of the Asian territories of Russia. Merger with Russia would lead to the assimilation and possible extinction of the Belarusian language and culture, an area that has not yet been the target of the pro-Soviet president.

The merger makes little economic sense for the Russians. The Belarusian currency is worthless, and Belarus requires increasing quantities of cheap oil and gas from Russia. Thus, the financially bankrupt would be hitched to the financially destitute.

The likelihood is that this new merger will be restricted to foreign policy and security issues. President Lukashenka will maintain Russia as a firm ally in the face of mounting opposition at home. In the past virtually all his major decisions have been directed toward the enhancement of his personal authority. The announced merger is an indication that he fears that very shortly he will face a major constitutional crisis. "People shouldn't be in a hurry to drive me out of Belarus," he commented.

They may not yet be ready for such a step, but they are becoming disgruntled.

Dr. David R. Marples is professor of history at the University of Alberta. This article appeared in the Edmonton Journal on January 13.

| Home Page |