ANALYSIS: Tkachenko: an undiscovered planet (02/21/99)

ANALYSIS

Tkachenko: an undiscovered planet

by Vasyl Zorya
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

More and more frequently two individuals are being named as possible candidates to whom President Leonid Kuchma will give his endorsement in the event that he decides not to run for a second term in the fall of 1999. Besides Valerii Pustovoitenko, Ukraine's prime minister, the other candidate mentioned as a potential recipient of the president's support is Oleksander Tkachenko, the representative of "agrarian socialism" and chairman of the Verkhovna Rada.

After his official visit to Belarus, Mr. Tkachenko once again denied he is running in the upcoming presidential election. However, political observers include the his name on the list of highly probable candidates, not believing that he will remain in his current post for the full four-year term. Despite protestations, most experts see his Belarusian visit as the beginning of his election campaign.

The Parliament's ambitious leader doesn't hide his sympathy for the Belarusian president's experience. In Kyiv he has been nicknamed "Local Lukashenka." Like President Alyaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus, the Verkhovna Rada chairman is one of the most quoted politicians in the press. His manner of speech is simple; he doesn't pay attention to anyone.

About Mr. Pustovoitenko, he said, "It would be much better if, instead of spending time abroad in search of Western investments, he would look for Ukrainian markets."

About the chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine, he said: "I laughed when I heard that Mr. Yuschenko was awarded the title 'Best Banker.'"

About his colleagues, he said: "I don't think that even 5 percent of the members of Parliament understand what the economy is all about."

About himself: "I am not a star, but for sure I am an undiscovered planet."

People love populist claims. So Mr. Tkachenko's proposal to send humanitarian aid to Iraq after the U.S and Great Britain bombed the country was supported in Parliament. When the Rada chairman made unsubstantiated claims that National Deputy Roman Zvarych was a CIA agent, people had no doubts; on the contrary, it seemed quite understandable.

The chairman of the Parliament is the embodiment of a leader who is going to move "onward, to the past" - toward integration with the former USSR.

Following President Lukashenka's example, Mr. Tkachenko led the Verkhovna Rada's official delegation to Moscow. Addressing the Russian Parliament, the Rada chairman spoke about possibilities of creating a mutual economical space, adopting a common currency and a general concept of mutual defense, and even creating a joint naval fleet.

Ten Ukrainian political parties said they were insulted by Mr. Tkachenko's speech and demanded his resignation. Even the president's representative in the Verkhovna Rada distanced himself from the unconstitutional proposals of the Parliament leader. However, it should be noted that it was the parliamentary factions that support the president that helped Mr. Tkachenko be elected chairman, while Rukh's representatives categorically voted against him.

Polls indicate that President Kuchma's popularity has been significantly declining for some time. The economic situation in the country is getting worse, and sociologists have doubts that Mr. Kuchma's rating will rise. The most popular candidates for the office following the president are four representatives of left wing: Oleksander Moroz, Natalia Vitrenko, Petro Symonenko and Mr. Tkachenko.

Analysts predict that President Kuchma will compete with a representative of the left forces - if he runs. Even if he does run, the president's chances are not very good and that is why some members of his loyal "party of power," the National Democratic Party, have asked him to think about a successor.

At the same time, the president's circle continues to try to persuade Mr. Kuchma to run for a second term. Chances for a representative of the current administration to be elected still are high, despite the situation in the country - especially if the administration uses its powers to control the presidential campaigns.

According to information from the president's office, Mr. Kuchma personally is not much interested in retaining his title as head of state. President Kuchma understands it's possible to be elected - much easier than to push through reforms. The president vacillates: maybe he should designate a successor, for whom there will be an open road to victory and access to maximum opportunities for financial and moral support from his administration.

It could be advantageous for the president to give his support to Mr. Tkachenko, who has a high chance of winning. Mr. Tkachenko already successfully unites his official position as chairman of the Parliament while at the same time retaining membership in the opposition. As a leader of the Peasants Party and as a former member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Mr. Tkachenko can count on significant support from both the left and the countryside.

Presidential support for a Tkachenko candidacy would seriously disorient the communist movement in Ukraine, or even split it. It would undermine Mr. Moroz's authority, weakening the strongest candidate of the left. Mr. Kuchma is interested in that happening, and Mr. Tkachenko has become a close confidant of the president's.

And, if Mr. Tkachenko does emerge victorious in the presidential elections, he could guarantee a secure future for Mr. Kuchma, which is very important to the president who is already being accused of indulging relentless corruption.

A dialogue between the president and the chairman has begun. One indicator is the government's decision to cancel the $57.8 million debt owed the government by the organization "Land and People," of which, until recently, Mr. Tkachenko was the president.

Vasyl Zorya has 15 years' experience in the media covering Ukrainian political and economic life. For last three years he served as press officer for the Embassy of Ukraine in Washington.

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