Mykola Ryabchuk speaks on Ukraine's future and political forces (06/06/99)

Mykola Ryabchuk speaks on Ukraine's future and political forces

by Andrij Kudla Wynnyckyj
Toronto Press Bureau

TORONTO - Literary critic, editor and political commentator Mykola Ryabchuk was in Toronto in March during his five-month visit to North America this spring that included a stint as a visiting research fellow at the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies in Washington.

Mr. Ryabchuk, who is the deputy editor of Krytyka, the Kyiv-based journal modeled on The New York Review of Books, as well as a columnist for the newspaper Den and a research fellow at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, gave two presentations in Toronto, the first on March 19 titled "A Future Ukraine: One Nation, Two Languages, Three Cultures?" at the University of Toronto Center for Russian and East European Studies (a presentation that he also delivered at the Kennan Institute; see the edited text above this article) and the second presentation on March 21 titled "Ukraine on the Eve of Elections: Between Bad and Worse?" that was hosted by the Ukrainian Research and Documentation Center.

The principal theme of the first presentation was that the primary antagonism in Ukraine is not ethnic but linguistic - between those who are Ukrainophones and those who are Russophones, a group that includes many ethnic Ukrainians. Furthermore, Mr. Ryabchuk suggested that at present, despite persistent efforts by Western commentators that claim otherwise, this linguistic antagonism does not create tremendous fault lines in the fabric of the nascent state and that economic concerns are paramount.

Furthermore, he indicated that virtual unanimity has been shown in polls on the troubles in the Crimean peninsula, with easily 90 percent of the population - again across ethnic and regional lines - in favor of strong measures to preserve the Ukrainian state's territorial integrity.

Ukrainian's low social status

Mr. Ryabchuk said that few people in Ukraine use Ukrainian, despite the fact that most can, because the language has low social (and former colonial) status.

"Not only [President Leonid] Kuchma, but also [former President Leonid] Kravchuk, speaks to his family members in Russian," he suggested.

Aside from official use, he noted: "Ukrainian is used only in family settings and in the countryside, where the fault can be tolerated, and at the Writers' Union building, an intellectual ghetto dominated by odd regional fixations."

Mr. Ryabchuk also contended that although Ukrainian is the state language, a Ukrainian-influenced Russian form of the language - the "Third Culture" referenced in the presentation's title - is most frequently used as soon as the microphones are turned off. The result is that there is a de facto cultural/linguistic trifurcation of the society.

Possible outcomes

Tailoring his address to his Canadian audience, Mr. Ryabchuk stated that while it is tempting to apply the Canadian model - "adopt official bilingualism and grope for peace" - to the Ukrainian experience, he believes this solution is applicable to Ukraine only in terms of the possible future rather than the present situation.

The Krytyka editor opined that in Ukraine "the question is, who will be Québec?" He stated there are two possible and entirely polar outcomes.

If Ukrainianization succeeds, then Russophone Russians would become a true minority, concentrated in the south central regions. Mr. Ryabchuk contended there is a strong likelihood this Russian enclave would easily maintain significant control of large sectors of Ukraine's economy and thus would enjoy sufficient political influence to ensure that its rights as a minority are respected.

However, if Russification by default proceeds, the scholar said Ukrainophone Ukrainians could well become a minority in their own country, concentrated in western Ukraine. Given that this minority status would be unacceptable to nationally conscious Ukrainians, Mr. Ryabchuk warned, this outcome has the potential for great political instability.

Mechanics of Ukrainian politics

The visiting scholar's second address, "Ukraine on the Eve of Elections: Between Bad and Worse?" focused on the sociological background of the forces that the various potential presidential candidates represent, and the mechanics of maintaining political power in Ukraine.

Mr. Ryabchuk said Ukraine is an odd democracy because, while the minority suffers, as it does in most countries, the majority suffers as well. He noted that because each administration's policies since 1991 have aimed only to redress specific grievances - merely reacting to demands from miners, nationalists, minorities, socialists or others - they have not been geared to bringing positive benefits to anyone.

In terms of civic consciousness, Mr. Ryabchuk stated that the general population is still showing signs of Soviet upbringing: they see social conflict as the unwanted residue of class war, as the seeds of chaos, and thus are terribly frightened of any confrontation.

Since there are no adequate civic institutions devoted to conflict resolution (such as a justice system that citizens can trust), the current regime is free to foster the above-mentioned notions, and present itself as the guarantor of stability even as it exploits social divisions.

That said, Mr. Ryabchuk pointedly reminded his audience that, for all their faults, Ukraine has never had rulers who were as well disposed to its population as the current crop. As yet, they have not mounted any direct assaults on the citizenry, or on the country's language or culture, as previous regimes have for centuries.

Without wishing to make a commitment to a particular presidential candidate, Mr. Ryabchuk said the worst outcome would be a maintenance of the status quo. "If Mr. Kuchma were returned to office, this would simply send a signal to the apparat that its approach is correct," he said.

The political commentator averred that Ukraine's Communists present very little threat. He said they make motions towards Moscow out of nostalgia for the USSR rather than for a "reunification" with Russia. Suggesting that any efforts to reconstitute the defunct Soviet Union are doomed, Mr. Ryabchuk quipped that supporters of such notions are "the kind of people who constantly step on the same rake and repeatedly get smacked in the face for their pains."

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