ANALYSIS: Zerkalo Nedeli debunks Ukrainian diplomacy myths (08/01/99)

ANALYSIS

Zerkalo Nedeli debunks Ukrainian diplomacy myths

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

PRAGUE - The July 17 issue of "Zerkalo Nedeli," a Kyiv-based Russian-language weekly, published a lengthy article by Sergei Goncharenko under the headline "Ukrainian Diplomacy Myths." The article is an attack on Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk, who, according to the author, "has exerted no influence on the adoption of [international] decisions that were important for Ukraine."

Mr. Goncharenko reviews a dozen "Ukrainian diplomacy myths" that, in his opinion, are groundlessly nurtured by Mr. Tarasyuk and his ministry. Among those dozen are the following.

THE ODESA-BRODY PIPELINE PROJECT: Mr. Goncharenko argues that the construction of an oil pipeline linking the Ukrainian port of Odesa with Poland via Brody, a town in western Ukraine, some 50 kilometers away from the Ukrainian-Polish border, is a "strategic mistake." The authorities have hailed that project as an attempt to "diversify oil sources."

Under "pressure" from the U.S., Mr. Goncharenko asserts, Caspian Sea oil will most likely be transported via Turkey, not Ukraine. Besides, Ukraine has no tankers to ship Caspian oil from Georgia to Odesa and no money to continue the construction of the pipeline.

A promising oil supplier is Kazakstan, which still doubts the advantages offered by the Turkish route for Caspian oil. However, the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry, according to Mr. Goncharenko, does nothing to forge an oil supply deal with Kazakstan to make the Odesa-Brody pipeline project realistic. Mr. Tarasyuk gives priority to developing Ukraine's relations within GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova).
GUUAM: There are no economic benefits for Ukraine from the GUUAM association, according to Mr. Goncharenko. Its members are economically weak partners that have no influence in international financial organizations and, apart from Uzbekistan, are themselves dependent on foreign assistance. Ukraine's trade turnover with GUUAM sank by 26 percent in 1998, more than with the CIS as a whole (a 23 percent drop last year). In addition, the share of GUUAM in Ukraine's trade with the CIS is rather negligible: 0.8 percent from January to May 1999.

By promoting GUUAM, Ukraine contradicts its repeatedly declared stance that "bilateral relations between CIS states are more effective than multilateral," Mr. Goncharenko notes. In his opinion, Ukraine's developing multilateral ties with former Soviet republics is a "return to common sense," but this practice should be extended to the entire CIS, not only GUUAM.
POLAND AS STRATEGIC PARTNER FOR UKRAINE: It is a delusion that Poland is important in helping Ukraine to develop ties with the West, says Mr. Goncharenko. In particular, it is not Poland but the European Union's "senior" members that will decide whether to close the border with Ukraine after Poland joins the EU.

On the other hand, if Ukraine manages to improve its economy, resolve unemployment problems and reduce crime by the time Poland enters the EU, the West may leave the border "transparent or half-transparent," Mr. Goncharenko asserts. The Ukrainian market is more important for Poland than the Polish market for Ukraine, Mr. Goncharenko notes.

His conclusion: "Unfortunately, we have already convinced the Poles of our inferiority. They have begun to speak increasingly frequently about Poland's special role in promoting Western values in Ukraine, about assisting us in building democracy, about supporting Ukraine in international organizations. ... Poland itself has not yet managed to stand firmly on its feet, its voice is not heeded by influential organizations, the country has no potential for investing in our economy."
FOREIGN POLICY AS SUPPORT FOR THE ECONOMY: While appointing Mr. Tarasyuk as foreign affairs minister in April 1998, President Leonid Kuchma instructed him to boost the promotion of Ukrainian economic interests abroad. In 1997, when the Foreign Affairs Ministry was headed by Hennadii Udovenko, Ukraine's foreign trade turnover totaled $31.4 billion (exports stood at $14.2 billion). In 1998, when Mr. Udovenko was replaced by Mr. Tarasyuk, foreign trade turnover was $27.3 billion (exports $12.6 billion).

Mr. Goncharenko argues that the 13 percent decrease in last year's trade turnover (11 percent in exports) cannot be explained - contrary to what Mr. Tarasyuk says - solely by the difficult economic situation in Ukraine and the crisis in Russia. Ukraine's GDP in 1998 decreased only by 1.7 percent. Besides, most of Ukraine's trade partners reported economic growth last year. Therefore, according to Zerkalo Nedeli, reasons for the worsened performance of Ukraine's foreign trade companies should also be sought in the poor performance of Mr. Tarasyuk's ministry.
UKRAINE'S NATO BID: According to Mr. Goncharenko, President Kuchma's position is that "there are no political, economic, military or social prerequisites in Ukraine for serious talks on the country's entry to NATO within the next 10 to 15 years." But Mr. Tarasyuk has learned to play "a game of different interpretation of words ... depending on his audience."

Mr. Goncharenko recalls two recent conflicting statements by Mr. Tarasyuk on Ukraine's stance regarding NATO. One of those statements was directed to the domestic audience: "The issue of Ukraine's joining NATO is not on the agenda [of Ukraine's foreign policy]." The other to the U.S. audience: "The main task for me as foreign minister is the integration [of Ukraine] into Euro-Atlantic economic and defense structures."

The article stresses that similar statements by Mr. Tarasyuk have repeatedly caused embarrassment on the part of Ukraine's top leadership, including President Kuchma. In May 1998, the Russian State Duma even postponed the ratification of the Russian-Ukrainian treaty following one of Mr. Tarasyuk's statements on Ukraine's NATO bid.

Mr. Goncharenko concludes that Mr. Tarasyuk is not a professional and pragmatic politician in the government and suggests that President Kuchma should dismiss him in order to improve his chances of re-election in October.

Minister Tarasyuk on July 20 commented on the Zerkalo Nedeli article by saying that "it was paid for by someone and its content does not correspond to reality," according to UNIAN. He added that he has no intention of resigning from his post.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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