ANALYSIS: Leonid Kuchma and the left: the presidential elections of 1999 (08/08/99)

ANALYSIS

Leonid Kuchma and the left: the presidential elections of 1999

by David R. Marples and Serhy Yekelchyk

On October 31, residents of Ukraine will go to the polls to elect their third president of an independent state. They do so aware that their country is at a precarious stage in its history: financially almost bankrupt, torn between its close friendship with the West and the growing bond between its neighbors Russia and Belarus, the new president faces choices that will determine Ukraine's path in the new millennium.

To date, the list of candidates suggests that the race will go to a second round between incumbent Leonid Kuchma and an opponent from the camp of the hard left, either a Communist or Socialist who will seek to tighten Ukraine's links with its former Soviet partners. Six candidates have a realistic chance of victory.

Mr. Kuchma, who turns 61 in August, came to office in July 1994 after a narrow victory over incumbent Leonid Kravchuk. Although Mr. Kuchma's electoral promises included the elevation of Russian as a second state language and closer ties with Russia, these goals were promptly abandoned once victory was attained. Instead, Mr. Kuchma has followed his predecessor's policies of closer integration with the countries of the European Union, virtual abandonment of the CIS, combined with a gradual and cautious economic reform program that has been slowed further by a recalcitrant Parliament.

Lately, Mr. Kuchma has strayed from the democratic path, clamping down on the opposition and allowing the development of a personality cult by his entourage. The New York-based Committee for the Protection of Journalists has listed him among the top 10 enemies of the press. Recently he has also met with Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin, events described by official media as the start of a new period of Russian-Ukrainian cooperation. His policies appear to have come full circle.

Until recently, the only female candidate in the race, Natalia Vitrenko, was leading Mr. Kuchma in the polls. A 47-year-old former professor of economics, Ms. Vitrenko combines a populist approach with Stalinist politics. She is the chair of the Progressive Socialist Party (a group purged by the Socialist Party of Ukraine for its alleged extremism) and refers to herself as a "true Marxist." Her campaign has suffered somewhat from limited access to the national media, but she would present a formidable opponent were she to progress to the second round.

Ms. Vitrenko's former boss is also running. Oleksander Moroz, a 55-year-old former party apparatchik from the Kyiv region, familiar to Ukrainians as the longtime chairman of the Parliament. Mr. Moroz, the leader of the Socialist Party of Ukraine, had anticipated that he would be a compromise candidate for both the Socialist and Communist parties, thereby uniting the left. However, Petro Symonenko, the 47-year old Communist Party boss, has also elected to run, likely brimming with confidence after the success of his party in the 1998 parliamentary elections, in which it obtained 122 seats in the legislature. Of the two, Mr. Moroz is clearly more moderate, pro-Western and charismatic, supporting a market economy "with government regulations," whereas Mr. Symonenko advocates at least a partial return to a command economy.

Oleksander Tkachenko, an agricultural specialist from Cherkasy region, represents the "dark horse" in these elections. Like Ms. Vitrenko, he is a populist, but he is a more seasoned campaigner, who was appointed chairman of the Parliament after a lengthy battle in July 1998. This position has elevated 60-year-old Tkachenko to a position of unlikely prominence. He can be described as a plain-talking Brezhnevite, somewhat reminiscent of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the virtual dictator of Belarus. Like Mr. Lukashenka, he has concentrated his campaign on the village, opposes land reform, is strongly anti-NATO in foreign policy and an avid supporter of the Russia-Belarus Union.

The last major candidate is Yevhen Marchuk, the former head of the Ukrainian security service and the leader of the Social Democratic Party. Mr. Marchuk is the only candidate other than Mr. Kuchma who is pro-Western and liberal, but his policies are notably vague. Though he portrays himself as a fighter against corruption, he and his associates have grown wealthy in recent years, and his party has a reputation as a club for rich Komsomol officials-turned-businessmen.

As the campaign enters its crucial period, the president's tactics are increasingly heavy-handed. Mr. Kuchma insists that a change of president would be catastrophic for the progress of reforms and democratization. He has also installed a loyal chairman to head of the Donetsk Oblast assembly and limited the amount of television airtime that his challengers can access.

It is unlikely that the president can win an outright victory in the first round. Even the most optimistic polls at present suggest that he will attain only 25 percent of the votes. The key question is who from the left camp will oppose him in the second round. Mr. Kuchma would prefer that his opponent be a hardliner, such as Mr. Symonenko. Mr. Tkachenko or Ms. Vitrenko, however, would present a frightening prospect of revanchist politics returning to Ukraine, closer links with Russia and the CIS, antagonism toward NATO and the West (including financial institutions such as the IMF), and state intervention in the economy. A leftist president could act quickly and decisively with the support of a left-leaning Parliament.

Under these circumstances a victory for the incumbent president would seem the best result from the Western perspective, Mr. Kuchma's lamentable tactics notwithstanding.

David Marples is a professor of history and acting director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta. Serhy Yekelchyk holds a candidate of sciences degree from Kyiv State University and is a Ph.D. candidate in history of the University of Alberta.

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