Polls show Kuchma in slim lead over Progressive Socialist Vitrenko (08/08/99)

Polls show Kuchma in slim lead over Progressive Socialist Vitrenko

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - Pre-election surveys taken in mid-July show that President Leonid Kuchma continues to maintain only a slim lead over Progressive Socialist Natalia Vitrenko among Ukraine's voters, but that a majority of Ukrainians, nonetheless, believe the current president will be re-elected in October.

Two independent polling organizations, Democratic Initiatives and the Center for Social Monitoring of Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, both came up with similar results: that currently there are two front-runners locked in a near dead heat.

The Democratic Initiatives survey questioned 1,200 respondents on their presidential choices and political impressions, while the Center for Social Monitoring poll asked 2,013 people to respond.

Although Mr. Kuchma leads in both polls, in the Democratic Initiative survey he has a little more breathing room at the top, with a 24.3 percent to 17.4 percent lead over Ms. Vitrenko. In the Center for Social Monitoring poll Mr. Kuchma leads Ms. Vitrenko 18 percent to 15 percent, but experts consider the three-point difference a veritable tie because of the statistical margin of error (both polls had a 3 percent margin of error).

Only three of the nine registered contenders for the October 31 vote received double-digit support. Yurii Kostenko of the splinter Rukh, who trails the field, could not even manage to get 1 percent.

Even though the race appears tight in the early stages of the presidential campaign, there seems to be a majority opinion among Ukrainians that the current president will be the next president as well. The Center for Social Monitoring survey, in addition to polling voters on their choice for president, asked them who they thought would be elected in October. An overwhelming 52 percent of respondents pointed to President Kuchma. Communist Party candidate Petro Symonenko was way behind at 6 percent, followed by Ms. Vitrenko at 3 percent.

Mr. Symonenko, who has seen his ratings rise to the low teens in the last months, still remains in the third spot in the presidential surveys, but his is the most loyal following, according to the Democratic Initiative poll. Some 80 percent of those who chose him as their candidate said that they were sure of their support.

Supporters on the whole, were, less certain of their loyalty to President Kuchma, whose numbers have also been rising, and Ms. Vitrenko, who has dropped several points lately. Seventy percent of those who said they would vote for either of the two current front-runners said they were sure how they would vote.

Socialist candidate Oleksander Moroz and Yevhen Marchuk, who was nominated by a coalition of rightist parties, respectively fourth and fifth in the current ratings, can claim only around 50 percent of their supporters are loyal.

Nearly 80 percent of those who responded to the poll said they most likely would take part in the presidential vote. The number is unusually high for a democratic country, but somewhat lower than what Communist governments expected of their citizens. More than 76 percent of Ukraine's registered voters went to the polls in the 1998 Verkhovna Rada race.

The electorate's high degree of readiness to vote is somewhat perplexing because, at the same time, respondents indicated that they really don't believe this will be a clean election. Democratic Initiatives asked in its questionnaire to what degree the October presidential elections will be fair-handed. Only 4 percent of the respondents said the elections will proceed honestly, which is way down from the 1994 elections when 17 percent thought the race would be fair. The largest number of respondents, 42 percent, agreed that the 1999 results could be twisted.

VOTERS' PREFERENCES FOR PRESIDENT: OCTOBER 1998-JULY 1999

Candidate October
1998 December
1998 March
1999 June
1999 July
1999

Leonid Kuchma 6 8 11 19 18

Natalia Vitrenko 7 13 18 11 15

Petro Symonenko 8 9 5 10 12

Oleksander Moroz 8 9 8 6 7

Yevhen Marchuk 2 3 3 2 6

Oleksander Tkachenko 1 1 2 2 2

Hennadii Udovenko - (*) - 3 1 2

Others 16 17 4 1 1

Will not vote 14 9 7 14 10

Undecided 38 24 31 32 24

Poll results from the Center for Social Monitoring at the Institute of Civic Surveys at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

**VOTERS' PREFERENCES FOR PRESIDENT: OCTOBER 1998-JULY 1999**
Candidate	October 1998	December 1998	March 1999	June 1999	July 1999
Leonid Kuchma	6	8	11	19	18
Natalia Vitrenko	7	13	18	11	15
Petro Symonenko	8	9	5	10	12
Oleksander Moroz	8	9	8	6	7
Yevhen Marchuk	2	3	3	2	6
Oleksander Tkachenko	1	1	2	2	2
Hennadii Udovenko	- (*)	-	3	1	2
Others	16	17	4	1	1
Will not vote	14	9	7	14	10
Undecided	38	24	31	32	24

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