EDITORIAL: A close final race (11/07/99)

EDITORIAL

A close final race

"It is the rare bird that will reach the center of the Dnipro ..." - Mykola Hohol

The wide Dnipro became ever-so-slightly wider on October 31 as the votes for president of Ukraine broke down into pro-Kuchma and pro-Symonenko, with the Dnipro once again as the major divide between the regions, and sentiments, of Ukraine. Central and western regions went for Kuchma (and Moroz), while eastern regions went for Symonenko (and Vitrenko).

The river that got its name from the Scythians that once lived on Ukraine's territory, has been the natural forger of Ukraine's political destiny for centuries. Different foreign rulers controlled opposite banks, different world views were developed. The political divides that have been forced down from the top have sunk into the souls of the people, who now, in turn, vote from the bottom up to sustain these differences. Naysayers consistently predict that these differences will explode into conflict, but these are people who don't understand the one element now common to all Ukrainians - their fundamental aversion to violence. The vote has quickly become accepted as the vehicle for change.

Sending different messages to different people while convincing everyone that you are not lying is the art and trick of democratic politics. However, in Ukraine, despite attempts to overcome differences, the geographic breakdown, which follows former colonial patterns of control, is almost predictable.

The world view and the message to voters in western and central Ukraine is simple: despite economic hardships and corruption, Kuchma has maintained stability and unity, has forged a relatively successful foreign policy, does not appear to be hostile and even seems to reach out towards the West, and has kept Russian imperialists and communists (in the mind of these voters, one and the same evil) at bay. Western and central voters dread the thought of an untested Symonenko mucking up the gains in nationhood and international status that are so important to them. Though they may not believe that independence and nationhood had to come at the price of economic hardship, they also understand that basically they have what they want and won't risk losing it. Symonenko's anti-NATO, anti-West, pro-Russian positions terrify them and they voted for Kuchma out of dread. They disagree with Symonenko's statement, "the dictatorship of the proletariat will be better than the dictatorship of the mafia, which is what we have now." They may dislike Kuchma, but not as much as they fear Symonenko.

Voters in the eastern regions feel no great allegiance to the West, or even western Ukraine. They may not like really like Symonenko, but they really hate Kuchma. Nationhood and international status aren't nearly as important as the alleviation of economic hardship. As far as they're concerned, the purpose of government is to take care of its people, including sharing what little wealth there is, and not pocketing it all themselves. They also have a point.

In order to gain needed percentage points, political analysts predict that Kuchma needs to convince voters who stayed home in western and central regions to come out and vote for him and to convince at least some eastern voters that they will get their due. Symonenko needs to take all of the votes that went to Moroz and Vitrenko, and then some. And whereas Kuchma will make overtures to the east, Symonenko has made no overtures to the center and west. All predict a close final race.

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