The Kuchma victory: analysis of a mandate (11/21/99)

The Kuchma victory: analysis of a mandate

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - With more than 56 percent of Ukrainians supporting his re-election, President Leonid Kuchma has the mandate, even if a muddled one, to be able to move quickly on economic, administrative and parliamentary reforms, according to experts. However, he will be able to do so only if he can build a centrist majority coalition in the country's Parliament.

During his campaign, Mr. Kuchma emphasized the stability, though not prosperity, he had brought to the country and ran on a platform of continued democratization and economic reforms. His platform was characterized by a central plank that emphasized the threat of a red revanche and a return to a dark Soviet past if he was not re-elected.

Although Mr. Kuchma's first term was shaky, filled with inconsistent policies and stalled reform, along with well-documented allegations of corruption, voters decided that he was better than the alternative.

The president, after his lop-sided, runoff victory against Communist Party candidate Petro Symonenko, said that economic and administrative reforms are at the top of the agenda for his next term.

"We need to speed up the process of reforms a few notches to proceed more quickly," said President Kuchma after preliminary results showed he had won. He said that accelerating reforms would be "the main thing" on which he would concentrate.

The president declined to explain how reforms would be quickened, which members of his administration have said would be outlined in a 100-day plan they are developing for the first months of the president's new term. But, according to Mr. Kuchma's closest aides, the president will attack politically sensitive issues he had avoided as too risky before his huge election victory. They said he finally will implement long-delayed administrative streamlining, overhaul the privatization process and formalize a referendum on parliamentary reform.

Dmytro Tabachnyk, one of the president's campaign chiefs and architect of his election victory, said the mandate handed the president gives him the authority to move forward aggressively.

"I believe that now he will be forceful in making changes in three areas," explained Mr. Tabachnyk, "strengthening the legislative foundation to stimulate reform, proceeding with intensive administrative reform and curtailing the bureaucratic apparatus, and enhancing the climate for strategic investments."

Mr. Tabachnyk said his analysis of the vote shows that Ukrainian voters expressed their strong support for continued integration into European structures and for deepening economic reforms.

During his campaign President Kuchma adopted an idea proposed by regional leaders, who at times have felt impotent in central government affairs, for a bicameral Parliament that would include a Senate consisting of regional representatives.

The president has said the controversial plan should be brought before Ukrainian citizens in a popular referendum. Critics say it will only extend presidential influence over the legislative branch.

The referendum proposal, which needs signatures of support from 3 million Ukrainians in order to move forward, would also include a question on the removal of criminal immunity for national deputies.

A referendum committee organized by regional leaders has already begun the task of collecting the signatures.

Even with the "can do" post-election euphoria that has enveloped Mr. Kuchma and his administration, political analysts believe that first the president must organize a majority centrist coalition in the Verkhovna Rada to have any chance of achieving real reforms.

The president has called the formation of a majority coalition among national deputies a primary political objective for the near term. Were such a coalition to form, Mr. Kuchma has said he would allow it to influence the appointment of the prime minister and the Cabinet.

While explaining that it is unclear whether the president can put together a majority coalition, Mykhailo Pohrebynskyi, a leading political analyst in Kyiv, said that, if he does succeed, it would be "a monumental stage in the development of a politically responsible government."

"Cooperation between the Verkhovna Rada and government would undoubtedly lead to a gradual betterment in the investment climate and the economy," said Mr. Pohrebynskyi.

If Mr. Kuchma fails to build a parliamentary majority, then Mr. Pohrebynskyi believes the president might move to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada although he admitted that to do so would be difficult.

"Then there would be rule by presidential decree, which could look decisive and progressive, but would surely kill the legislative system, which depends upon elected, representative decision-makers," he added.

Another noted political analyst, Mykola Tomenko, said the president must be careful how he approaches the issue of a second chamber for the Parliament. Moving too quickly to a political referendum on a proposed bicameral legislature could further bungle the president's relations with national deputies and cause a continuation of the paralysis that has characterized ties between the legislative and the executive branches during Mr. Kuchma's first term.

"Right now there can't be any serious promise of change. Kuchma must first make a political decision about whether he can afford a serious confrontation with the Verkhovna Rada over the referendum, or whether it is more important to develop a majority coalition and a new government," explained Mr. Tomenko.

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