Reports note low risk of Y2K disruptions throughout Ukraine (11/28/99)

Reports note low risk of Y2K disruptions throughout Ukraine

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - Countering claims in the international press offered by many a computer specialist that Ukraine could suffer from major power disruptions and face huge problems at its nuclear facilities after January 1, a recently issued U.S. government-funded study has found that Ukraine's energy sector is at low risk of experiencing any major Y2K disruptions following the New Year.

The risk assessment report, prepared by computer and energy Y2K experts from Southern California Edison, the huge power-generating conglomerate, along with the Bonneville Power Administration and the CANUS corporation, states that "the Ukrainian power grid will not collapse and heating steam will not be lost" when the new millennium dawns.

After analyzing information gathered from Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, the Nuclear Power Plant-Operations Support Institute and a host of private and government technology centers, as well as the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which has a substantial presence in Ukraine and funded the report, the project members visited 15 facilities associated with power generation and distribution around the cities of Kyiv, Lviv and Zaporizhia.

The report, released in early November, states that where problems may emerge failure could result in limited service to people - what it calls "degraded system performance" - but that many of the problems should be resolved by manual operation. The report emphasizes that, as in other countries, the seriousness of a situation that could have been catastrophic if not remedied in time, was determined to be manageable simply because there are far fewer computers affected by the date rollover to the year 2000 than previously thought.

"It was found that in Ukraine less than 1 percent were found to be date sensitive, with about the same percentage having Y2K issues - an unexpected but beneficial finding," according to the report.

The report also noted that where potential problems exist, Y2K counter-programs have been effective and that the training of Y2K personnel "was found to be very good."

However, there still are holes in contingency planning, although sufficient time exists to implement them as well, it was reported.

One particular concern, which the assessment emphasizes, is Ukraine's lack of a comprehensive country-wide plan for resource reallocation, communications and emergency response should a worst-case scenario develop. It suggests that Ukraine should construct a comprehensive emergency plan, if only because it is tightly tied to Russia's electrical network, and Moscow has said that it could shut down energy going to Ukraine if it determines the country is not Y2K ready.

The bottom line, according to the study, is that at worst Ukraine could experience some regional electric outages until nuclear power plants restart, two to three days after the New Year. No problems with heat and gas availability are foreseen.

The year 2000 computer problem, known simply as Y2K or the millennium bug, is a programming deficiency found particularly in older computer software programmed to read years by the last two digits. Most computer experts believe that when the year 2000 arrives those computers not properly adjusted will read it as 1900, which may cause them to simply shutdown or react in other unexpected ways.

Many specialists derided Ukraine for being slow to respond to international pleas to review the computer systems that run its nuclear and hydroelectric power-generating stations, even as the Ukrainian government had given assurances that it would undertake the requested testing and meet international standards. Ukraine has been generally grouped with Russia, China and Indonesia as places where the millennium bug will hit hardest.

Whereas most countries had been attacking the computer problems for about two years, the Ukrainian government Y2K task force organized by Prime Minister Valerii Pustovoitenko and currently headed by First Vice Prime Minister Anatolii Kinakh, was formed only on February 16. Its secretary, Volodymyr Furashev, admitted on November 19 at a roundtable on the subject that Ukraine had been late getting started, but added that now the problems had been resolved "in a substantial way."

The members of the roundtable, which included representatives from the energy, finance, transportation and communications ministries, all reported that they had achieved or were well on their way to Y2K compliance, and those that were not would be by the new year. Ukraine's civil defense authorities said they had contingency plans in place in case computer failures caused extensive problems around the country.

With its own reports concluding that the Y2K problem will minimally impact Ukraine, the U.S. government has decided, nonetheless, that it is better to be safe than sorry, and has authorized the departure from Ukraine of its government employees, including Embassy personnel and their families, on a voluntary basis. Of the more than 100 countries in which the United States has a diplomatic presence, Ukraine is one of only four where the U.S. government will cover transportation costs for employees wishing to leave the country during the holiday season. The other countries are Russia, Belarus and Moldova.

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine declined to comment on the decision, and State Department officials did not return The Weekly's inquiry.

The psychological impact of the many negative scenarios described by U.S. government officials and experts in the last months - most of them now deemed unlikely - may be one reason that U.S. officials have decided to allow their workers to leave.

As late as October 13, Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's national intelligence officer for science and technology, told a Senate Y2K panel that Ukraine was one of several countries that still were vulnerable to serious millennium bug disruptions, according to an Associated Press report. Explaining that longer-term problems could develop after the onset of the new year, Mr. Gershwin said that European markets could be affected by severe gas shortages in Russia or Ukraine.

Neither the official U.S. government report not the Ukrainian government Y2K commission mentioned any such threats in their findings.

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