ANALYSIS: Russia-Belarus union threatens stability across post-Soviet region (12/19/99)

ANALYSIS

Russia-Belarus union threatens stability across post-Soviet region

by Paul Goble
RFE/RL Newsline

PRAGUE - A new union treaty signed on December 8 by Belarus and the Russian Federation threatens the prospects for democracy in both countries, stability across the post-Soviet region, and relations between Moscow and the West.

The agreement, sought since 1996 by Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, allows each country to retain its sovereignty. But it calls for the establishment of a confederal government consisting of a supranational Supreme State Council and having a common currency, tax, and customs and border procedures.

While the two sides continue to disagree on the scope and speed of integration, there appears - in both Miensk and Moscow - to be more willingness now than at any time in the past to pursue the new union treaty. And that, in turn, suggests the new union could take on a life of its own, even if not all its provisions are implemented.

On the one hand, both Belarusians and Russians are likely to continue to struggle over the possibility of any integration of their two countries, a fight that is increasingly likely to define politics in these two countries. And on the other, leaders in other post-Soviet states as well as in the West seem certain to have to deal with the implications of this first step toward the tighter reintegration of some of the former Soviet republics.

Regardless of how that debate develops over the coming months, three things are already evident. First, this union accord in itself undermines the prospects for democracy in both Belarus and the Russian Federation. Not only is President Yeltsin likely to use it to keep himself in office beyond the year 2000, but the increasing authoritarianism of Belarus seems certain to spread eastward, a development that concerns at least some Russians.

Stanislau Shushkevich, the former chairman of the Belarusian Parliament, said recently that Russia is the "main guilty party" for the difficulties facing Belarus at present. Mr. Shushkevich says Russia's "imperial way of thinking" has united practically all political parties. And, he says its drive for integration with Belarus has enabled Belarusian authorities to "fool the voters."

Even more, the drive for reintegration has prompted Moscow to defend the Belarusian president's authoritarian actions. For example, Russia's human rights commissioner, Oleg Mironov, visited Miensk recently to contest Western findings of massive violations of human and civil rights in that country.

Mr. Mironov said his visit was intended to "dispel the myth" that Belarus violates human rights. He failed to acknowledge the Lukashenka regime's use of force to disperse anti-regime demonstrations, the disappearance of several leading opposition figures, and the regime's denouncement of Western institutions for criticizing what Miensk is doing.

As it defends Belarusian behavior against the West, Moscow will find it ever easier to sanction such behavior at home, particularly in the context of its own massive violations of human rights in the Chechen war and the Western criticism it has received for such violations.

Second, the new union treaty in itself destabilizes the post-Soviet region. This pact is openly revisionist in its treatment of the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, suggesting, as both Mr. Lukashenka and some Russian leaders have argued, that other former Soviet republics should join either a Slavic union or something even broader.

Some leaders may be attracted to this idea, others may be repelled, but all are certain to adjust their policies in response to this new treaty. That is especially true if Western governments take the position that this accord could be ratified "democratically." Up to now, Western countries have said that is a requirement, but they have not made clear how such a poll could take place under President Lukashenka's rule.

But there is another way in which this accord might destabilize the region. Several Russian analysts have already suggested that some regions within Russia - including Tatarstan - might ask to join the new union in order to get out from under Moscow's tutelage and boost their own status. Such a move could further threaten the integrity of the Russian Federation itself and would certainly elicit a sharp response from Moscow.

And third, the likelihood that this accord will exacerbate tensions across the former Soviet space will almost certainly contribute to increasing tensions between Moscow and the West - tensions that, as a result of Moscow's campaign in Chechnya, already are higher than at any point since the collapse of the USSR.

Consequently, this latest Lukashenka-Yeltsin agreement, even if it is never fully implemented, may mark a turning point in the history of the entire international system. That may be what the two signatories want, but it is certainly something that many others, including a large number of Belarusians and Russians, clearly fear.

Paul Goble is the publisher of RFE/RL Newsline.

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