ANALYSIS: Is Ukraine now a buffer between NATO and Russia? (03/19/00)

ANALYSIS

Is Ukraine now a buffer between NATO and Russia?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Last week's session of the NATO-Ukraine Commission in Kyiv, in which NATO Secretary-General George Robertson and the alliance's 19 ambassadors participated, highlighted the importance that both sides attach to cooperation under the Special Partnership Charter. Mr. Robertson called the Kyiv session "historic," while President Leonid Kuchma declared in a letter to the meeting that "Ukraine is ready to deepen its relations with NATO - a cornerstone of the all-European security system."

Mr. Robertson stated unambiguously in Kyiv that the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO "is not on the agenda." However, this does not mean - as one Ukrainian newspaper commented - that the issue "will not appear on the agenda" in the future. For the time being, both sides are developing cooperation in military, technical, economic and environmental spheres. Since Ukraine gained independence in 1991, NATO has given some 500 research grants and stipends to Ukrainian scientists.

The NATO-Ukraine session in Kyiv did not yield any concrete results. NATO officials once again urged Ukraine to reform its armed forces. Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko told journalists that both sides reached an agreement regarding military reform in Ukraine, but some Ukrainian media skeptically commented that Prime Minister Yuschenko's statement was nothing more than official confirmation that Kyiv and Brussels have different views on how the Ukrainian army should be reformed.

However, on March 2 - as the NATO-Ukraine session continued - the Ukrainian Parliament ratified an agreement defining the status of NATO troops and servicemen from countries participating in the Partnership for Peace program in Ukraine, as well as the Open Skies Treaty, which allows its signatories to monitor each other's territory from the air. Both agreements give a boost to Ukraine's cooperation with the alliance and may also result in financial dividends for Kyiv. First, the Yavoriv military range (in Lviv Oblast) may become an international center for training peacekeeping troops under NATO patronage and may receive NATO funds. Second, the ratification of the Open Skies Treaty offers Ukraine the possibility to lease its surveillance plane AN-30B to those signatories that do not possess such an aircraft and cannot undertake such flights as are stipulated by the treaty.

These developments will not be overlooked by Russia, which under acting President Vladimir Putin has began to assert more decisively its dominant role in the area of "Russian national interests." The March 4 Kyiv-based Zerkalo Nedeli warned that Ukraine may soon find itself in a "buffer zone" between Russia and NATO in which it will be subject to conflicting interests and influences.

The newspaper also argues that by making advances to Ukraine, NATO is seeking to prevent the restoration of "an empire" following the demise of the USSR. On the other hand, Zerkalo Nedeli noted, Ukraine is "in the zone of Russia's strategic interests as well as in the zone of total Russian influence and control." So far, Kyiv has been able to navigate safely between these two poles.

The NATO-Ukraine meeting in Kyiv, according to the newspaper, demonstrated "unique and, most likely, purely Ukrainian flexibility in foreign policy." However, Zerkalo Nedeli said Ukraine should be prepared for a darker future as the "geopolitical rivalry" between NATO and Russia looms large on the horizon.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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