Ukraine reacts to Putin election (04/02/00)

Ukraine reacts to Putin election

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - According to political leaders and analysts here, the election of Vladimir Putin as the new president of Russia will not radically change the way Russia looks at its southern neighbor, but it will force Ukraine to take a more measured and realistic stand in its dealings with Moscow and to view relations as it would with any other economic trading partner.

The way in which the two countries view each other has gradually changed as the fact of their permanent separation has sunk in, but Ukraine continued to hold special status in the halls of the Kremlin during the Yeltsin era. Although Russia has put up several blockades on trade, especially for Ukrainian sugar and alcohol, Kyiv has benefited from lenient terms for Russian oil and gas that have assured supplies but led to large debts. As a result of the election of Mr. Putin that may soon end.

The pragmatic-minded and results-oriented Mr. Putin will demand that Ukraine pay as it goes in trade, explained Mykhailo Pohrebynsky, director of the Kyiv Center of Political Research and Conflict Studies. "These will now be relations of full-fledged partners with no allowance for special status or Slavic friendship," said Mr. Pohrebynskyi.

He said that what is most important for Ukraine is to complete its own internal governmental and administrative restructuring and to stop looking for favors from Moscow.

"If this works out, I believe Ukraine will find that Mr. Putin is a worthy partner. If this fails and Ukraine continues not to pay for oil and gas, and does not pursue the necessary structural reforms, it will be left in a very, very difficult position," said Mr. Pohrebynskyi.

Many in the West are concerned about just what type of leader Mr. Putin will be: whether he will guide the county through the conclusion of the reform process that was begun but never completed by his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, or swerve to the right and make himself a strong man in the long tradition of Russian leaders.

The ex-KGB official has said in public statements that he wants a strong Russia and the authority to do what is needed to get to that result. At the same time, however, he has emphasized that he will stay the course of democratic and economic reforms.

Historically, because a strong Russia has meant a weak or non-existent Ukraine, many here are worried that Mr. Putin's election and any attempt by him to return Russia to its historic legacy could mean the beginning of subtle attempts to affect Ukraine's sovereignty and independence.

A former Ukrainian president, however, said that Ukraine should not fear Mr. Putin and that Ukraine-Russia relations "will not radically change."

Leonid Kravchuk, elected president several months after an unsuccessful putsch in Moscow led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, said that relations between the two countries are sufficiently deep, so that any major shake-ups would threaten not only the strategic interests of Ukraine, but of Russia as well. That, he explained, would be counterproductive for Mr. Putin.

Mr. Kravchuk also said he believes that the ties between Moscow and Kyiv had reached such dimensions that Mr. Putin alone could not alter them dramatically. "The personality of one man is simply unable to radically change something in this situation," explained Mr. Kravchuk.

He said, he expected that Mr. Putin would pursue a tougher, more pragmatic policy vis-à-vis Ukraine, and that some Ukrainians may view new policies as chilling relations, but that in the long run this would be good for Ukraine.

"The time has come for Ukraine to stop being a beggar," explained Mr. Kravchuk. "It should base the development of relations with other countries, first and foremost with Russia, its nearest and largest neighbor and partner, on a foundation of real trade and mutually beneficial economic relations."

The Ukrainian government has maintained, since Mr. Putin rose to the presidency with the resignation of Mr. Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, that it will be able to work with the new Russian president and that it sees no threat from his leadership.

The day after his formal election, President Leonid Kuchma sent a telegram to the Kremlin congratulating Mr. Putin and expressing hope for the "further strengthening and development of relations of the strategic partnership between our countries, the effective realization of bilateral documents signed recently and the resolution of the accumulated problems in our cooperation."

Interfax-Ukraine reported that in a telephone conversation on March 28 President Kuchma extended an invitation to President-elect Putin to visit Kyiv.

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