ROUGH DRAFT: Optimism, but not celebration (04/16/00)

ROUGH DRAFT

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

Optimism, but not celebration

There is much reason today for optimism that Ukraine will soon begin to look like a European country and that it, mercifully, has finally found and embarked on the road to free markets and transparent government. Those who have sat on Ukraine's sidelines for the last nine years, acknowledging each small economic or political success, have every right to applaud and wish Ukraine well - but only a bit, because all is not rosy.

There are preliminary indications that Ukrainians will soon be able to share in the prosperity and a comfortable standard of living that Europe has seen for decades. Reform is taking place in the Cabinet of Ministers and in the presidential administration, where administrative bodies are being re-organized and streamlined, and the number of workers reduced.

The economy is showing signs of life. In the first two months of 2000 economic indicators swung upward for the first time in 10 years, rising by around 3 percent. Industrial production in the first quarter is up by 9 percent - and that includes all the various sectors of the economy, except for energy.

The government has set about straightening the much-manipulated and corrupted energy sector as well, with a plan for restructuring and privatization that it says will increase the transparency of operations significantly and even the playing field with Russia, its largest energy trading partner.

Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko has shown that he is not only a financier but a politician as well - and that he has the political ability and the determination to overcome opposition. The Verkhovna Rada's approval of the Cabinet of Ministers economic reform program, dubbed "Reforms for Prosperity," was no small feat, given that it was opposed by two of the most powerful political deal-makers in Ukraine today.

The two, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Viktor Medvedchuk and head of the Regional Rebirth Party Oleksander Volkov, are formidable foes who have the ear of President Leonid Kuchma. The president, by throwing his support behind his prime minister's program, neutralized the influence of the two politicians - who may be Ukraine's most potent oligarchs.

Mr. Yuschenko also receives high marks for his choice of Yulia Tymoshenko as the vice prime minister of energy, an appointment that originally was questioned by many here because of Ms. Tymoshenko's personal business dealings in oil and gas, as well as her past political relationship with Pavlo Lazarenko. Today the move is considered by some to be a stroke of political genius because it shifted the balance of power in the energy sector away from businessmen associated with Mr. Medvedchuk and his business partner Hryhorii Surkis and other oligarchs. Mr. Surkis, who has considerable business holdings, including the Dynamo Soccer Club, is believed to have filled the space in the energy sector vacated by Mr. Lazarenko after he fled to the United States.

By bringing Ms. Tymoshenko, whose business and administrative abilities have never been questioned, back into the field, which she dominated with Mr. Lazarenko as chairman of United Energy Systems and knows intricately, Mr. Yuschenko found a political partner who understands what is needed to balance the power of the various oligarchies that control the oil and gas trade in Ukraine.

But not everything is hunky dory, even if there is now a glimmer of hope that some of the poverty that has permeated Ukraine eventually will begin to subside. Major fundamental problems still abound in the way the government views and practices democracy. Although no one likes a pessimist during a victory celebration, it must be said that the flaws are deep, and nothing is being done to fix them.

Central to any true democracy are individual freedoms, and no country, regardless of the amount of prosperity, the frequency of elections or the percentage of people who vote in them, can call itself a democracy if all of these freedoms are not strictly upheld by the government. Today the Ukrainian government takes lightly or blatantly disregards at least two of them.

The presidential administration and the government have, thus far, not addressed major concerns about freedom of speech and choice. In addition, the government continues to employ tactics to intimidate people to achieve the results it desires.

The way the presidential elections were conducted here last year received much criticism from human rights bodies, such as the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which condemned the way the government utilized its vast resources and far-reaching abilities to intimidate voters.

That is all well-documented for history. The OSCE said in its final report, in which it refrained from calling the elections tainted, albeit barely, that it hopes Ukraine will clean up its election process in the future.

Now a new vote is at hand - the national referendum on proposals for constitutional changes - and again the government has stuck its paw into the jar searching for the honey. There have been reports that in Kyiv teachers are turning to parents of students, extolling them to vote in the April 16 election, and that school directors have been told that their future depends on the voter turnout.

If it's happening in the schools, undoubtedly it is also happening in the higher educational institutions and the factories, as was documented by various international observers during the presidential elections.

The government is using all possible means to get the vote out because at least 50 percent of registered voters must go to the polls for the referendum to be valid. Few here doubt that three of the four proposals will pass. More think that on a sunny, spring Sunday a majority of voters may opt to do something other than vote, thus nullifying the results.

The government also continues to keep Ukraine on shaky democratic ground with its continued attempts to control the press and media outlets. Earlier this year, Silski Visti, a newspaper that supported Oleksander Moroz in the first round of elections, became another in a long line of newspapers forced to shut down, if only temporarily, on trumped up charges of tax evasion. More recently, some television newsroom editors have groused over a suggestion by the presidential administration that they submit daily lists of news stories planned for evening news broadcasts.

Now, in what may be the latest setback for press freedoms, the publisher of the English-language Kyiv Post, a U.S. citizen, was denied entry into Ukraine on April 12. Although neither Foreign Affairs Ministry nor customs officials have explained the reason for the refusal, a press release issued by the Kyiv Post stated that its publisher, Jed Sunden, was black-listed by high government officials on October 31, 1999. The Post has a history of editorial commentaries critical of the presidential administration.

While the latest scenes in Ukraine's struggle to transform itself into a European country play out, and as voters prepare to vote in a national referendum that could further increase presidential powers and mute the legislative branch, the people must consider where they are headed. Ukraine will not be a part of Europe until the government and the president understand that economic indicators and business profits are not the only building blocks of a modern state. They must begin to open up government and make primary the will of the people - not the ambitions of a few, even if the control they seek is of a benevolent nature.

Ukraine will not be a part of Europe no matter how strong the economy becomes until the government stops playing with the people's right to express their thoughts and to choose how to vote. Until this happens, those who are observing Ukraine's move towards Europe must temper their applause, for we are celebrating a shallow victory.

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