ANALYSIS: Courting strategic partnership in Kyiv (05/07/00)

ANALYSIS

Courting strategic partnership in Kyiv

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine scored several impressive political victories in the past two weeks.

The major one was of course the overwhelming approval of all four questions in the April 16 constitutional referendum, which is widely expected to give him considerable additional levers of control over the Parliament as soon as the will of the people is reflected in appropriate constitutional amendments.

However, the two high-level visits to Kyiv shortly before and after the referendum - one by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright on April 14 and another by Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin on April 18 - turned out to be no lesser successes for the Ukrainian leader than the plebiscite.

Secretary Albright moved up her trip to Kyiv, which originally had been planned for April 20-21, thus giving rise to much speculation in the Ukrainian and Russian media that she wanted to be in Kyiv before President-elect Putin in order to prevent President Kuchma from making too many concessions to the Kremlin's energetic ruler.

In particular, those media suggested that Ms. Albright would persuade Mr. Kuchma to stop paying the Russian gas debt with strategic bombers and cruise missiles. Also, Ms. Albright reportedly informed Mr. Kuchma about Washington's concern that he continue the course of reform and keep reformist Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko in office as long as possible. In exchange for Mr. Kuchma's agreement, Ms. Albright reportedly pledged U.S. massive political and financial support to Kyiv.

Secretary Albright did not spare praise for President Kuchma and his renewed pledges to put Ukraine on a reform path. "I was very impressed by President Kuchma's dedication to this [reform] process and his desire to move the reform process forward, and by the work the prime minister is undertaking," she told journalists. Ukraine is expected to receive $219 million in U.S. aid this year.

Ms. Albright also said she was "heartened" when Mr. Kuchma reaffirmed his intention to close the Chornobyl nuclear power plant this year. And she expressed support for the constitutional referendum, which is, however, regarded by the Council of Europe as dangerous to Ukraine's fledgling democracy.

There was no mention, at least in official pronouncements, of what is believed to be a thorn in U.S.-Ukrainian relations, namely, Ukraine's pervasive corruption that hinders both the Ukrainian government and U.S. investors in promoting market reforms and generating economic growth in the country. The National Bank of Ukraine has recently been checked by international auditors in connection with the charges of misuse of International Monetary Fund loans. Some commentators concluded that the audit, whose results are purportedly known to Washington, is not expected to do much damage to Kyiv.

On the other hand, Mr. Putin's visit promised a lot of unpleasant moments for Mr. Kuchma. In contrast to lumpish and jovial Boris Yeltsin, who was guided primarily by Moscow's Soviet-era patronage in "no neckties" contacts with his "younger brother" from Kyiv, Mr. Putin is believed to be a cold pragmatist. Ukraine's gigantic gas debt to Russia was to be the main topic of the Kuchma-Putin talks in Kyiv. Some Russian and Ukrainian left-wing politicians expected that the Russian president-elect Putin would use economic leverage to persuade Mr. Kuchma into making some steps toward the "Slavic" union of Russia and Belarus.

However, Mr. Putin's visit turned out to be a reconnoitering rather than an attack. Officially it was said that both leaders discussed a variety of important bilateral issues, but no decision was taken and no document was signed. Mr. Putin's sharpest pronouncement with regard to Kyiv was at a news conference in Sevastopol, when he noted that Russia and Ukraine "should quit barter in mutual settlements and increase payments in cash to one another." Mr. Kuchma duly responded that "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" he will see to this problem.

Some Russian media speculated that Mr. Putin reiterated to Mr. Kuchma Russia's former demands that Ukraine pay its gas debt with shares in privatized companies.

But others suggested that this plan has already been dropped because of Kyiv's strong objection. A special bilateral commission has to work out a mutually acceptable solution to the Ukrainian gas debt dilemma by the end of May.

In other words, President Kuchma has demonstrated once again his unshakable position as the leader of a geostrategically important country that permanently balances on the verge of economic collapse but nevertheless successfully maneuvers its political course through the conflicting interests of Washington and Moscow. Taking into account the latest outburst of popular support for the president during Ukraine's constitutional referendum, Mr. Kuchma may be said to be one of the most successful politicians on the post-Soviet territory.

Will he ever be held accountable for Ukraine's disastrous economic performance? At present such a development does not seem too likely. The first thing President Kuchma did after the visits of Ms. Albright and Mr. Putin was to harshly criticize Mr. Yuschenko's government for a slow pace of reform.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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