ANALYSIS: Will Lukashenka outplay opposition once again? (07/09/00)

ANALYSIS

Will Lukashenka outplay opposition once again?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

PRAGUE - On November 24, 1996, a constitutional referendum initiated by President Alyaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus submitted to popular vote a radically rewritten Constitution broadly expanding his powers at the expense of those of the legislative branch.

The new basic law abolished the country's former Parliament - the 260-seat Supreme Soviet - and introduced a bicameral legislature consisting of a 110-seat Chamber of Representatives (the lower house) and a 64-seat Council of the Republic (the upper house). This legislature has been deprived not only of the possibility to effectively act as a check on the government but also of the right to draw up its own budget.

The 1996 plebiscite took place amid egregious violations of constitutional norms and procedures, and its results are widely believed to have been rigged. Before the referendum the opposition in the Supreme Soviet had initiated procedures for impeaching President Lukashenka, and his days in office appeared to be numbered.

What saved him at the very last moment was a "conciliatory mission" undertaken by Moscow. A group of top officials led by then Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin arrived in Miensk and persuaded the opposition not to impeach Mr. Lukashenka in exchange for the Belarusian president's pledge that the referendum would be of a consultative nature only. The opposition and Mr. Lukashenka struck a deal to that effect, but following the referendum that overwhelmingly endorsed the new Constitution Mr. Lukashenka enforced the results of the vote by decree.

The new Constitution prolonged President Lukashenka's term in office for two another years, until 2001. Since the 1996 referendum, Mr. Lukashenka has consolidated his power and turned Belarus, as the U.S. Congress's May 3 resolution put it, into "an authoritarian police state where human rights are routinely violated." With Moscow's political and economic support, President Lukashenka has appeared to ignore Western criticism. But, while he has managed to marginalize the opposition at home, he has failed to undermine the oppositionists' standing abroad.

This fall Belarus will hold elections to the Chamber of Representatives, a body that in the past four years has turned the concept of Belarusian parliamentarism into a caricature. Since last fall, the Belarusian opposition has been trying - with the help of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and other European organizations - to organize a dialogue with the authorities in order to hold fair, democratic parliamentary elections and overcome the country's international isolation. The OSCE says it will recognize the Belarusian ballot only if the authorities amend the country's electoral code, give the opposition access to the state-controlled media, expand the powers of the current legislature and stop political persecution.

Following Vladimir Putin's election as president of Russia, Mr. Lukashenka's political position has dramatically weakened. As long as the politically - and physically - feeble Boris Yeltsin remained in power, Mr. Lukashenka could harbor hopes to continue to push his integration policies ahead and eventually succeed Mr. Yeltsin as head of a Belarusian-Russian unified state. Following Mr. Putin's installation in the Kremlin, however, such a turn of events seems unlikely. Now the most pressing issue confronting President Lukashenka appears to be how to keep power in Miensk and avoid the incorporation of Belarus into the Russian Federation as the latter's 90th subject.

Holding free and fair elections in Belarus could give President Lukashenka the democratic mandate that he so obviously lacks, as well as improve his political position both at home and abroad. It is likely that these considerations have forced Mr. Lukashenka to launch a so-called "sociopolitical dialogue" in Belarus.

Two months ago the authorities brought together some 100 public associations and organizations in a bid to present the gathering to the OSCE as a forum for discussing the upcoming elections. The Belarusian opposition, however, refused to participate in that forum, which it says lacks the leverage to change Belarus legislation and is only Mr. Lukashenka's attempt at outplaying the opposition - and the international community - once again.

So far, the OSCE's Miensk mission appears to have abided by the position defined by the OSCE's Istanbul summit in November 1999: The constitutional crisis in Belarus can be overcome only by a "significant dialogue" that will lead to free, democratic elections. The current "sociopolitical dialogue" by no means corresponds to that definition, even though President Lukashenka has promised to take the legislative initiative and submit to the Chamber of Representatives some amendments to the electoral code. At the same time, he appears willing neither to discuss the expansion of powers of the current legislature nor give the opposition access to the media he controls. As a result, his declared intention to hold transparent and democratic elections sounds like an empty promise.

By August at the latest, the OSCE is expected to make a decision on whether to send observers to Belarus elections this fall. Sending observers to elections will not automatically mean that the OSCE recognizes the ballot as democratic. But such a step usually indicates that there are prerequisites for holding democratic elections.

No such prerequisites have been in evidence in Belarus. Nor is there any real chance that in the next two months President Lukashenka will take radical steps to comply with the OSCE demands. As a result, it would seem that the OSCE decision on whether to send its observers to Belarus is a foregone conclusion.

However, given Mr. Lukashenka's talent for political maneuvering, it cannot be ruled out that he will outplay the opposition once again - this time with the OSCE performing a "conciliatory mission" in Belarus.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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