EDITORIAL: A glimmer of hope (08/20/00)

EDITORIAL

A glimmer of hope

An informal and unscientific survey of Kyivans conducted by our Kyiv Press Bureau to determine the mood in the capital city on the eve of the ninth anniversary of Ukraine's independence shows that few people are happy with most facets of life in the country today and that most do not believe that a prosperous future is possible in the near term. They see little reason to celebrate independence this year and cannot fathom that next year's 10th anniversary jubilee will give them any more reason.

People are fed up with insincere political promises that have led to false expectations. They believe that nothing can change in the country until the economy begins to move. They want jobs and are impatient for a better life. And they don't see a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel.

Whether visible or not, however, a tiny incandescent stream of light has begun to emit from the black hole that has been the Ukrainian economy for nearly a decade now. It may only be a microscopic pinhole to most economists, but no one can deny that a breakthrough has occurred this year in the Ukrainian economy.

Initially, some economists were skeptical when the government announced that industrial growth had climbed by more than 10 percent in the first couple of months of this year and that the gross domestic product had exceeded expectations as well. They called the numbers a temporary blip on the economic radar screen that had resulted from a devaluation of the Ukrainian currency, the hryvnia, at the end of 1999.

But the numbers have remained steady, with GDP continuing to expand at a 5 percent clip through July and industrial output continuing to climb.

Economic indicators are blocks of numbers that do not put money in people's pockets or new clothes on their backs. The statistics do, however, give an indication of where an economy is headed. And the Ukrainian economy is heading upward.

Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko must receive much credit for the turnaround because he succeeded in convincing lawmakers that Ukraine needed a balanced budget and a strict fiscal policy. President Leonid Kuchma must also get a share of the credit. He chose Mr. Yuschenko to be his prime minister over bitter backroom protests by the president's cronies. He has stuck with Mr. Yuschenko, albeit in a rather lukewarm manner, while a concerted if quiet political campaign has mounted to remove the reformist prime minister, who is despised by the business clans that control the Ukrainian economy.

Meanwhile, the prime minister struggles to implement his agenda - one very much in line with recommendations from the West, which includes bureaucratic streamlining and a new tax code.

For people to readily acknowledge that the economy is moving forward they must feel it in their pocketbooks. That is yet to happen. Economic revitalization still has not gathered sufficient critical mass to make it felt on an everyday basis. Too many people remain unemployed, and no one is seriously talking about wage increases.

It is understandable that Ukrainians are leery of believing that there may be an economic future of some prosperity for them. After all, they have heard the fleeting promises of economic reform for several years now. In prior decades many wanted to believe the Communist slogans of coming future prosperity, only to be disillusioned. After the Communist hoax was finally debunked and the system thrown off, they took to heart the pronouncements that a free-market economy would finally bring prosperity and eagerly awaited the good life. Today they are still waiting, but with little real hope that it will soon arrive.

To be sure, Ukraine will not climb out of the decade-long muck into which its economy has sunk overnight, or even before next year's 10th anniversary of independence. Too much of the political and economic infrastructure continues to require either reconstruction or fine-tuning. Foreign investors still are leery of the Ukrainian market, even as they laud its potential. More administrative housecleaning needs to take place, and the tax system still needs an overhaul.

The institutionalized corruption and lack of political will that has characterized this country in the last nine years has exacted a heavy toll and will continue to do so.

But things are slowly beginning to change.

The recent improvement in the economy shows that perhaps the country is beginning to bounce back. Now a steady, if not spectacular, economic expansion may begin. We think that Ukrainians really do have reason to believe that tangible evidence of an invigorated economy will soon follow and that by this time next year, as the nation prepares for its 10th anniversary jubilee, there truly will be something to celebrate. Many may even have new jobs.

| Home Page |