ANALYSIS: Putin compounds a demographic disaster (11/26/00)

ANALYSIS

Putin compounds a demographic disaster

by Paul Goble
RFE/RL Newsline

Russian President Vladimir Putin's suggestion that increased immigration from former Soviet republics could help solve Russia's demographic crisis may trigger new problems in both those countries and Russia itself, as well as in relations between the two.

Speaking in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk on November 17, Mr. Putin said that "we could have a perfect opportunity to attract labor resources from the former USSR through immigration." Moscow, he added, would have to rigidly control where such migrants settled, noting that "in our country, the immigrants settle on the Black Sea coast and live in Sochi," while in reality such people are most needed in Siberia and other regions.

And while President Putin was not specific, he almost certainly hopes that this immigration will consist primarily of some of the more than 20 million ethnic Russians who remain in the 11 former Soviet republics and three Baltic states rather than of non-Russians from these countries.

But regardless of whether that is the case - although Mr. Putin's remarks elsewhere strongly suggest that it is - his proposal now highlights both the seriousness of Russia's demographic situation and the political risks he is willing to run to try to address it.

The extent of Russia's demographic debacle was outlined the same day by Russian Labor and Social Development Minister Aleksandr Pochinok, who told the State Duma that the country's demographic situation now threatens not only economic progress but also national security. The population of the country, he said, has fallen by 6 million since 1992 and could sink another 7.2 million by 2015 if current trends continue. In such an event, Mr. Pochinok added, Russia would fall from the seventh largest country in the world in terms of population to the 14th.

Mr. Pochinok also noted that the extremely high death rate and low birth rate in Russia are "incomparable" with the demographic situation elsewhere in Europe, and he noted that in the last year average male life expectancy in Russia fell below the pension age "for the first time ever." This means that Russia may soon face not unemployment, but a lack of workers for the economy, he argued, adding that such a shortfall would represent an additional restriction on Moscow's ability to maintain a sizeable military force.

Mr. Pochinok told the Duma that the Russian government has "worked out" a demographic policy for the future to change these negative trends, but he gave few details. Consequently, President Putin's remarks on the same day take on greater importance as a clue to future Russian policy.

But to the extent they do, the president's words point to serious problems ahead across the region. The non-Russian countries could be the most affected. If a large number of ethnic Russians in these countries - almost all of whom are citizens of the states in which they live - were to respond, their economies would be negatively affected and ethnic tensions exacerbated, possibly leading some to view ethnic Russian communities there as disloyal.

And if a large number of their own co-ethnics were to move to Russia, something Mr. Putin does not appear to want, that, too, could hurt the economies of these states, especially given Moscow's exit from the visa-free regime of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

But Russia, too, could face numerous problems. Since 1991 Moscow has generally discouraged any Russian return, not only because of the lack of housing and jobs for such immigrants but also out of a desire to use its "compatriots" as a political lever in these states.

If sizeable numbers of ethnic Russians were to return, that would put a large burden on the country's housing stock and challenge the government's ability to ensure that the immigrants went where Moscow would like them to go.

But if sizeable numbers of non-ethnic Russians were to enter the country, that would almost certainly exacerbate ethnic tensions in Russia itself and possibly lead to a new outburst of extremist nationalism.

Russian politicians such as Vladimir Zhirinovskii and Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov have played on the anger many Russians feel toward "persons of Caucasus nationality." Opinion polls show that relatively few Russians would welcome even more such "gastarbeiter" (guest workers) in their midst. And because of the consequences such immigration would have in both the non- Russian countries and in Russia itself, such a policy almost certainly would cast a shadow on relations between Moscow and the 14 other states involved.

For most of the last decade, both Russian and non-Russian leaders generally have sought to promote the integration of all those living on the territories of their countries as the best means of preserving both internal stability and ethnic accord. But because the situation in Russia has become so grave, President Putin now appears prepared to move in a very different direction - one that could add a political dimension to that demographic disaster.

Paul Goble is the publisher of RFE/RL Newsline.

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