ANALYSIS

International conference underscores significance of global climate change

by Breffni O'Rourke
RFE/RL Newsline

An international conference in the Netherlands devoted to climate change could hardly have asked for more dramatic scenes to underscore the impact on mankind of unstable weather.

In the run-up to the November 2000 summit in the Hague, gales raced in from the Atlantic, bringing mountainous seas and tearing at Europe's western fringes. Flood waters engulfed wide areas of central and southern England, driving people from their homes. Meanwhile, other areas of the continent enjoyed unseasonable weather.

Not that this sequence of events is unique: November has always brought gales and rains, and sometimes sunshine. Rather, it is the changing combination of these phenomena in record or near-record doses that suggests the degree of climatic instability the world faces. Although there is no direct proof that any single weather disaster is the result of man-made global warming, the scientific community is increasingly convinced by indirect evidence of a linkage.

A new report, issued by British-led scientists and funded by the European Union, suggests that global warming will affect Central and Eastern Europe in a number of ways starting around 2020. It says experimental models predict that temperatures in Europe will warm at a rate between 0.1 degree Celsius per decade and 0.4 degree Fahrenheit per decade. This trend will be most marked in the northeast, including western Russia and Finland, and in the Mediterranean region.

This means the north and center of the continent, including the Baltic states and Ukraine, will experience milder winters and warmer though possibly wetter summers. This means northern plant and animal communities will come under increasing pressure as habitat conditions change. And agriculture will have to make adjustments.

One of the scientists contributing to the report, Helsinki-based Tim Carter, told RFE/RL that "it's quite possible that different types of crops could be grown in northern regions than are grown at present ... and there may also be over the longer term a shift in tree distribution, broadleaf trees replacing the current evergreens that are grown in northern parts towards the Arctic Circle. On the other hand, one might also expect new pests and diseases of these species also to move northwards, so it is not all positive."

Such rapid change would bring with it a need for the re-education of farmers and foresters, as well as much experimentation, some of it likely to be painful. And there might be other drawbacks. "Some of the crops that are grown in the northern and central regions of Eastern Europe, as the temperatures rise..., might actually experience a drop in crop yield," Mr. Carter said. "This is because crops such as wheat and barley will mature more rapidly, under a climate warming, which is detrimental to yield."

In the far south and southeast of Europe, the developments because of climate change are projected to be almost entirely negative. The report estimates that hotter summers will be more frequent, resulting in increased air pollution in cities. Water will be scarcer as rainfall decreases, while forest fires will be worse. And because of the excessive heat, seashores may lose much of their recreational appeal. Diseases could increase significantly, and agriculture could be severely affected. "Certainly the prospect of drying in the summer half of the year is likely to worsen the problems of soil impoverishment, desertification, salinization, particularly where irrigation is used," explained Mr. Carter.

It's not clear from the climate models used to compile the report just how severe these impacts would be on states north of the Mediterranean rim, such as Bulgaria. They, too, can be expected to suffer more extreme heat waves and consequently extra soil dehydration and associated problems. But some models indicate rainfall in the region may increase instead of decrease.

Therefore, it would seem that Romania, which lies still further north, could have a more moderate mix of extra summer heat and rainfall.

In any event, the editor of the British-organized report, Prof. Martin Parry, says it's essential for the EU to start incorporating estimates of climate change impacts into its regional and environmental policies, including agricultural policies.

Breffni O'Rourke is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Prague.

Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, January 7, 2001, No. 1, Vol. LXIX

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