ANALYSIS: Yuschenko to make peace with oligarchs? (03/18/01)

ANALYSIS

Yuschenko to make peace with oligarchs?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

PRAGUE - Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko on March 10 met with the leadership of the parliamentary majority to discuss a "political accord" between the Cabinet of Ministers and the legislative majority in order to define mutual obligations and responsibilities of the government and its legislative support group. Interfax reported that the meeting resulted in a decision to set up a working group for drafting such an accord.

Oleksander Turchynov, leader of the Fatherland Party parliamentary caucus, commented after the meeting that he fully shares Mr. Yuschenko's conviction that his Cabinet works in a businesslike way. Mr. Turchynov said the recently voiced signals about a crisis in the Yuschenko Cabinet are only an attempt by some political forces to divert public attention from the political crisis in the country and transform it into a Cabinet problem.

Mr. Turchynov added that no lawmaker proposed any personnel changes in the Cabinet during the meeting with the prime minister. The Fatherland Party parliamentary caucus is against the signing of a joint accord by the government and the parliamentary majority, and is opting for a series of accords between the Cabinet and each separate pro-government parliamentary group.

Yurii Kostenko, leader of the Ukrainian National Rukh, told Interfax that the only possible non-leftist pro-government majority is the one existing at the present moment. Mr. Kostenko added that any attempt at changing the current composition of the parliamentary majority will put an end to the reform efforts of the Ukrainian Parliament.

Mr. Kostenko seemed to be commenting on last month's ultimatum by Verkhovna Rada First Vice-Chairman Viktor Medvedchuk, who said that, unless Mr. Yuschenko forms a coalition Cabinet, "the reformist parliamentary majority will create a new coalition government with a new prime minister."

For some political observers of the Ukrainian political scene, Mr. Medvedchuk's statement clearly signaled the beginning of a major campaign by Ukrainian oligarchs to rearrange the country's top echelons of power.

The testing day for Mr. Yuschenko will be April 10, when he is expected to deliver a report to the Parliament on the performance of his Cabinet. Some political analysts say the Verkhovna Rada is very likely to dismiss Mr. Yuschenko under the pretext of his alleged failure to fulfill the government program approved by lawmakers a year ago.

Mr. Yuschenko may be voted out jointly by the Communists - whose representative will subsequently head the legislature - and some oligarchic caucuses that want Mr. Medvedchuk (or some other oligarch) to head the government.

There are three major oligarchic parties (each having its own parliamentary representation) in Ukraine: the Social Democratic Party (United), led by oligarchs Viktor Medvedchuk and Hryhoriy Surkis; the Democratic Union led by Oleksander Volkov; and the Labor Ukraine Party, led by Serhii Tyhypko, Viktor Pynchuk and Andriy Derkach. They may have keen interests in unseating Mr. Yuschenko for at least two reasons.

First, Mr. Yuschenko, assisted by former Vice Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, has managed to shift a majority of payments in Ukraine's economy from shady barter schemes to transparent cash settlements, thus depriving Ukrainian oligarchs of considerable profits.

Second, Ukraine is to hold parliamentary elections next year, and oligarchs may simply want to have their own people in the government at administrative levers of control over the situation in the country, which would better position their parties for the upcoming election campaign.

As of now, President Leonid Kuchma seems to be in full control of the situation in the country, but it is also obvious to everyone that he is currently more concerned with what takes place on Kyiv's streets and squares than about developments in parliamentary lobbies and government offices. Taking advantage of the president's political troubles, the oligarchs - who so far have influenced developments in Ukraine from behind Mr. Kuchma's back - now appear to be prepared to take the reins of power directly in their own hands.

Prime Minister Yuschenko's immediate and defiant reaction to the oligarchs' move indicated that he is aware of the looming political takeover in Ukraine. On February 28 he commented on Mr. Medvedchuk's threat that "the government will never participate in a dialogue of ultimatums with any political force." Mr. Yuschenko added that Mr. Medvedchuk's statement is "a prologue for destabilizing the situation in Ukraine" and "an attempt to change Ukraine's future."

Speaking on behalf of his Cabinet, which discussed the domestic political situation during a closed-door session, he noted, "We are convinced that this is a purely clannish approach toward organizing Ukrainian politics."

Last week, however, Mr. Yuschenko proposed that talks be held between the government and the parliamentary majority on signing a political accord that could regulate mutual relations. Some see this proposal as an indication that in the meantime the prime minister had tried unsuccessfully to get support from President Kuchma to strengthen the Cabinet's stand against the oligarchs.

True, Mr. Kuchma publicly declared that he is not going to dismiss the Yuschenko Cabinet, but he added that the government should be efficient and depend more on the parliamentary majority. Mr. Yuschenko apparently treated this pronouncement as less than comforting, and made an attempt at concluding a separate peace agreement with the oligarchs.

It may sound paradoxical to many, but the question of whether President Kuchma survives the current political unrest in Ukraine seems to be of secondary importance in comparison with the question of Prime Minister Yuschenko's survival. Mr. Yuschenko's possible ouster in April may not only disrupt the current positive economic trends in the country, along with the government's reformist course, but also make a much more gloomy prospect a reality.

Ukraine could soon find itself left to the full discretion of those who contributed enormously over the past 10 years to its plunge into all-encompassing corruption, economic inefficiency and abject poverty.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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