ANALYSIS: Ukrainians say they live in crisis and poverty (04/08/01)

ANALYSIS

Ukrainians say they live in crisis and poverty

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

PRAGUE - In a poll conducted between March 2 and 13 by SOCIS and the Democratic Initiatives Fund among 1,200 people in all Ukrainian regions, 80 percent of respondents said Ukraine is in a political crisis, and 63 percent acknowledged that the authorities are facing opposition in the country.

Asked about consequences of the current opposition protests, 27 percent of respondents said everything will remain as it was before the protests, while 22 percent predicted a change of the president and the government.

Of those polled, 72 percent said Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction and only 11 percent were of the opposite opinion; 17 percent were not able to decide the answer to this question.

Iryna Bekeshkina, an expert of the Democratic Initiative Fund, said the poll revealed that "Tapegate" and the Gongadze case have seriously influenced the attitude of Ukrainians to the state leadership and institutions. Ms. Bekeshkina noted that over the past five months the "negative balance of trust" in President Leonid Kuchma (the difference between the percentages of those trusting and mistrusting him) increased by 8 percent.

According to the poll, only 10 percent of Ukrainians have full trust in Kuchma, while 56 percent fully mistrust him.

Among those who believe that the audiotapes provided by former bodyguard Mykola Melnychenko are authentic (meaning that they believe Mr. Kuchma ordered Mr. Gongadze's murder), the president's "balance of trust" is minus 61 percent, while among those who say Mr. Melnychenko's tapes are fake, the relevant figure is plus 2 percent.

Ms. Bekeshkina also noted that the "negative balance of trust" in regional authorities considerably decreased over the past five months: from minus 39 percent to minus 30 percent regarding local councils; and from minus 40 percent to minus 33 percent regarding local executive bodies. The central government also improved its rating, reducing its "negative balance of trust" from minus 37 percent to minus 34 percent. Among Ukrainian politicians, Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko has the best "balance of trust": plus 2 percent.

Sixty percent of respondents blamed Ukraine's problems on those who lead the nation. But the poll also revealed that only 16 percent are ready "to insistently and continuously stand for their positions."

Oleksander Stehnii, a SOCIS analyst, commented on this last figure: "It is possible to view [this figure] with some probability as an indicator of the readiness for collective social actions, but this figure in no way means that such an amount of people is ready to overthrow the authorities."

According to Mr. Stehnii, Ukrainians do not "sufficiently" trust any opposition leader, and such a situation breeds people's apathy and unwillingness to participate in protests against the authorities. He added that political apathy in Ukraine can also be explained by the fact that "the post-Soviet is mentally afraid of [social] disturbances."

The overwhelming majority of respondents - 86 percent - said they are poor: 38 percent defined their material status as "very low," 32 percent as "low" and 16 percent as "below average." Thirteen percent said their material status is "average," while 1 percent said it is "above average." The average monthly income of those polled was 126.4 hrv ($23.30), while official data for the year 2000 said this indicator amounted to 146 hrv.

The poll found that 66 percent of Ukrainians consider themselves to be believers, 25 percent non-believers, and 3 percent atheists. Six percent did not answer the question about faith.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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