ANALYSIS: Yuschenko rendered powerless (04/29/01)

ANALYSIS

Yuschenko rendered powerless

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine

PRAGUE - Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko is widely expected to lose a no-confidence vote this week in the Parliament. Last week, 290 lawmakers supported a motion to rate as unsatisfactory the performance of the Yuschenko Cabinet on Ukraine's "Reforms for Prosperity" socioeconomic program in 2000. The Verkhovna Rada needs 226 votes to pass a no-confidence vote in the Cabinet of Ministers and dismiss it.

Mr. Yuschenko's ouster is demanded by a rather unlikely alliance of the Communists with the so-called pro-presidential (and theoretically pro-governmental) center and right-of-center majority in the Verkhovna Rada.

True, some groups from the majority - both Rukh factions, the Fatherland Party, and the Reforms-Congress caucus - do not want to see Mr. Yuschenko dismissed. And the Socialist Party caucus led by Oleksander Moroz refused to vote on the appraisal of the Cabinet's performance in 2000, arguing that the current developments in the Parliament are a "Communist-oligarchic" plot to take over power in the country.

Until this week, President Leonid Kuchma had remained silent on the standoff between the government and the Parliament. Mr. Moroz of the Socialist Party made a strong point last week by saying that the standoff had been "artificially provoked" by President Kuchma in order to divert the public spotlight from his person and the audiotape scandal implicating him in the murder of journalist Heorhii Gongadze.

Indeed, the anti-presidential opposition, which not so long ago organized regular demonstrations demanding Mr. Kuchma's ouster, has recently began mustering public support for Mr. Yuschenko to prevent his dismissal (it reportedly has collected more than 3 million signatures in support of the prime minister). And, quite naturally, the Ukrainian media, both state- and privately owned, have almost completely switched to covering the conflict between Mr. Yuschenko and the parliamentary "oligarchs."

This week, however, President Kuchma seems to have changed his mind about the standoff. While in Vilnius on an official trip, the Ukrainian president noted that "the government's dismissal is not to Ukraine's benefit today." He said he is ready to contribute to reaching a compromise between the Parliament and the government, adding that "the situation is dependent on how this dialogue will be conducted by the government, including Mr. Yuschenko."

It remains to be seen whether President Kuchma's intentions are honest and whether he will be able to persuade the pro-presidential caucuses - most notably the Social Democratic Party (United) and the Labor Ukraine groups - not to back the Communist-sponsored no-confidence motion.

However, what seems to be already evident is the fact that Mr. Yuschenko - whom many see as a sure presidential candidate in the 2004 elections - will emerge politically weakened from the current standoff. If a compromise is found with the "oligarchic" caucuses - which demand no less than 10 portfolios for their people in the Cabinet - then Mr. Yuschenko's control of the government which was never large because of the president's exclusive power to nominate and dismiss ministers, will become reduced even further.

And, if the Parliament ousts him, Mr. Yuschenko will face the vague prospect of maintaining his current popularity without support from the state media at least until next year's legislative elections, when he may try his luck at winning a parliamentary seat and politically surviving until the presidential ballot.

It is hardly imaginable that Mr. Yuschenko would head the anti-presidential opposition following his possible ouster. Mr. Yuschenko has repeatedly demonstrated that he lacks the guts for determined, let alone extreme, actions. His preference to look for a middle ground between President Kuchma and the anti-Kuchma opposition has already implicated him in morally dubious situations, as when he signed a statement (along with President Kuchma and Parliament Chairman Ivan Pliusch) branding the opposition Forum for National Salvation as a group of political bankrupts and potential criminals. On the other hand, Mr. Yuschenko is aware that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are not ready to fill the ranks of the anti-Kuchma opposition and that this situation is not going to change any time soon.

As many times in the past, Mr. Kuchma once again appears to be sacrificing the prime minister in order to defuse his own political problems. This time, however, the situation is radically different than on previous occasions. The Parliament is poised to dismiss the head of government who is credited with achieving the first signs of economic growth since Ukraine gained independence in 1991. And, if Mr. Moroz's supposition about the "Communist-oligarchic" conspiracy in Ukraine is true, then President Kuchma is facing the risk of losing control not only over economic, but also over political developments in the country.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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