ANALYSIS: Ukrainian president reasserts control (06/10/01)

ANALYSIS

Ukrainian president reasserts control

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

The appointments made by Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma to the new Cabinet of Prime Minister Anatoliy Kinakh seemed to fully confirm the opinions of those observers of the Ukrainian political scene who have asserted that the ouster of Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko was orchestrated by Mr. Kuchma solely to defuse his own political problems.

President Kuchma made Mr. Kinakh's Cabinet almost a copy of his predecessor's by reappointing 11 Cabinet members who served under Mr. Yuschenko. "Only the prime minister was changed, while the government remained [the same]," Mr. Kuchma commented on the recent government reshuffle in Ukraine, speaking to journalists at last week's CIS summit in Miensk.

The issue of Mr. Yuschenko's ouster emerged some two months ago when the Ukrainian opposition - most notably the Forum for National Salvation and the group For the Truth - were staging regular and vigorous demonstrations in Kyiv, demanding the ouster of President Kuchma and top state officials over their alleged role in the murder of independent journalist Heorhii Gongadze. Those allegations seemed to be confirmed by secret audio recordings made by former presidential bodyguard Mykola Melnychenko in Mr. Kuchma's office and subsequently made public in Ukraine by Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz.

Even though not impressively large, those anti-Kuchma protests brought Ukraine's "tape scandal" into the spotlight of Ukrainian and world public opinion and did much damage to Kuchma's political stature.

Those who suspect President Kuchma and his administration of political plots assert that Mr. Kuchma ordered the arrest of former Vice Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and orchestrated the dismissal of Prime Minister Yuschenko in an attempt to gradually change the direction of opposition protest actions. And indeed, following Mr. Tymoshenko's arrest in mid-February and the inauguration of Mr. Yuschenko's dismissal process in the Parliament, opposition groups became involved in organizing actions in defense of these two politicians.

The opposition's drive to oust Kuchma, though not dropped altogether, had already become less energetic before April 26, when Mr. Yuschenko was voted out of his post. That drive subsided almost completely in May, when different opposition factions engaged in disputes over the expediency of holding an anti-Kuchma referendum.

Apparently, the Communists and the so-called oligarchic parties helped President Kuchma get rid of Prime Minister Yuschenko in exchange for some promised concessions. Many Ukrainian commentators maintained that Mr. Kuchma had agreed to introduce some "oligarchic" ministers in the new government.

If this theory holds water, then Mr. Kuchma must have immensely disappointed the oligarchs. There are only several vacancies left in the Kinakh Cabinet, and all of them are in relatively less important ministries.

It is also not clear what the Communists have gained by contributing to Mr. Yuschenko's ouster. Neither Mr. Kuchma nor Mr. Kinakh have promised to make an about-face change in Ukraine's economic or political course, as postulated in the Communist Party's program.

President Kuchma has managed to tighten his grip on the government following the "tape scandal" and Mr. Yuschenko's dismissal. Last week the president issued a decree introducing the posts of state secretaries and deputy state secretaries for the Cabinet of Ministers and individual ministries. The state secretaries are to be appointed for five-year terms.

President Kuchma's spokesman, Volodymyr Lytvyn, explained that the decree was necessitated by frequent Cabinet reshuffles which, he argued, threaten to "disorganize the executive branch" in the country's "period of transition and political restructuring." The state secretaries, not subordinated to the prime minister, are to deal with the day-to-day running of the government and provide continuity between consecutive Cabinets.

Many opposition politicians have voiced fears that President Kuchma's move indicates a further assault on democracy on his part. Ms. Tymoshenko said the introduction of state secretaries is "the logical transformation of the authoritarian [power] system into dictatorship."

Reforms and Order Party leader Viktor Pynzenyk said the decree is politically tantamount to "the liquidation of the institution of the Cabinet of Ministers, which is now becoming a window-dressing [body] since the entire power has been focused on the president."

And Kyiv-based political scientist Mykola Tomenko commented that many ministers from the previous Cabinet of Mr. Yuschenko retained their posts in that of Mr. Kinakh, but have "significantly lost their powers" to state secretaries. "Kinakh is becoming a sort of presidential representative or adviser to deal only with managing the regional system of power, some economic branches, and individual enterprises," Mr. Tomenko added.

With summer vacations close at hand, the Ukrainian opposition may face additional difficulties in mobilizing its adherents for anti-Kuchma protests on the scale they did in February and March. And, when a new period of political activity starts in September, most politicians and parties will probably be much more interested in ensuring their own political future in next year's legislative elections than in trying to threaten that of the president. Thus, even if morally damaged, President Kuchma seems to be politically secure at least until a new legislature is formed.

Perhaps the most bitter pill for the Forum for National Salvation in its anti-Kuchma campaign was how Mr. Yuschenko behaved following his ouster. He declined offers to join or even head the anti-Kuchma opposition and announced that he is going to form a "broad democratic coalition" to win in next year's parliamentary elections. But the first persons he consulted on the creation of such a coalition were Verkhovna Rada Chairman Ivan Pliusch and President Kuchma.

Some Ukrainian commentators are convinced that only one move by the opposition - a political alliance of Mr. Yuschenko (as candidate for the post of president), Mr. Tymoshenko (would-be prime minister), and Mr. Moroz (would-be chairman of Parliament) - could radically revamp the Ukrainian political scene and give democrats a fair chance to defeat both "the party of power" grouped around Kuchma and several oligarchic parties. But, at present, such an alliance seems to be the least likely political development of all.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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