ANALYSIS: Half of Ukrainians see no opposition leader (06/17/01)

ANALYSIS

Half of Ukrainians see no opposition leader

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

A poll of 1,000 people in all regions of Ukraine conducted on April 25 through May 5 by the GfK-USM polling center found that 49 percent of respondents could not identify any opposition leader in Ukraine.

Interfax reported on May 21 that, of those polled, 15 percent said former Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is such a leader, 12 percent pointed to Communist Party head Petro Symonenko, 11 percent to Socialist Party head Oleksander Moroz, and 5 percent to lawmaker Taras Chornovil.

"The population reacted appropriately to the situation within the National Salvation Forum. ... The fact that half of the forum opposes the idea of a nationwide referendum [seeking President Leonid Kuchma's ouster], while the Socialists and the Fatherland Party [of Ms. Tymoshenko] support it, confirms that relations within the opposition are complicated." This is the view of Mykola Tomenko, director of the Institute of Politics, which ordered the poll.

The same poll found that if presidential elections had been held at the time it was taken, caretaker Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko would have obtained 24 percent of the vote; Mr. Symonenko, 10 percent; Leonid Kuchma, 6 percent; and Progressive Socialist Party leader Natalia Vitrenko, 5 percent. Other politicians would have gotten less than 5 percent of the vote; 10 percent of voters would have voted against all candidates, 19 percent were unable to decide on their preference, while 15 percent said they would not have taken part in the elections.

Meanwhile, Mr. Yuschenko most recently puzzled Ukrainian commentators by meeting Verkhovna Rada Chairman Ivan Pliusch, with whom he discussed the creation of a "broad democratic coalition" in order to win next year's presidential elections. Mr. Yuschenko earlier rejected suggestions that, following his ouster from the post of prime minister, he join and even head the anti-Kuchma opposition, which is represented mainly by the Forum for National Salvation.

Even more puzzling was President Kuchma's statement that he wants Mr. Yuschenko "to stay in politics."

The Kyiv-based Zerkalo Nedeli speculated on May 26 that Mr. Yuschenko could build his coalition in alliance with Mr. Pliusch and Kyiv Mayor Oleksander Omelchenko, and obtain support from trade unions, youth organizations, and some parties that so far have not decided on their political alliances for next year's parliamentary elections.

Zerkalo suggested that Mr. Kuchma might be personally interested in the emergence of Mr. Yuschenko's non-leftist bloc as a balance to the left wing and the so-called oligarchic parties, which now reportedly threaten the president's political position.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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