ANALYSIS: Yuschenko's bloc and others (07/29/01)

ANALYSIS

Yuschenko's bloc and others

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

On July 15, from atop Mount Hoverla in the Carpathian Mountains, former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko announced the formation of an electoral bloc named Nasha Ukraina (Our Ukraine) and called on pro-reformist, democratically minded and nationally conscious forces to join it.

Some 2,000 members of Ukraine's two Rukhs and the Reform and Order Party, as well as journalists, climbed Ukraine's highest peak to mark the 11th anniversary of Ukraine's sovereignty and listen to Mr. Yuschenko's announcement.

That announcement had been impatiently awaited in Ukraine since April 26, when Mr. Yuschenko was voted out of his post as prime minister jointly by the Communists and oligarchical groups in the Verhovna Rada. Shortly after the vote of no confidence, Mr. Yuschenko addressed his supporters outside the parliamentary building, pledging to return to politics soon.

Noting that he wants Our Ukraine to win next year's parliamentary elections and form a government, Mr. Yuschenko said the bloc and its manifesto are to be forged this fall. He named no specific forces during his July 15 pronouncement, but it is already clear that Our Ukraine will include the National Rukh of Ukraine (Hennadii Udovenko's wing), the Ukrainian National Rukh (Yurii Kostenko's wing), and the Reform and Order Party of Viktor Pynzenyk. It is most likely that the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists also will join Our Ukraine.

Mr. Yuschenko is Ukraine's most popular and most trusted politician. A recent poll by the GfK-USM polling center found that if a presidential election had been held in July, Mr. Yuschenko would have obtained 32.4 percent of the vote. The same poll found that Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko would have been backed by 17.4 percent of voters, and incumbent President Leonid Kuchma by 10.2 percent. It is no wonder that the bloc headed by the former prime minister is expected to win a significant parliamentary representation.

It is difficult to make any predictions regarding Our Ukraine's election chances some eight months before the election date, but it is already clear that Mr. Yuschenko must look for more allies in order to build a force that would be able to control the future Parliament. As of now, he may be sure of voters' support in western Ukraine, where both Rukhs have most of their adherents. But in Ukraine the political climate is defined not by the traditionally nationalist western areas of the country, but by the heavily populated and industrialized east. As of now, Mr. Yuschenko appears to have little leverage, if any, in the east. There is a danger that his personal popularity may not help Our Ukraine's candidates in eastern constituencies.

Mr. Yuschenko has apparently decided not to confront President Kuchma directly; he rejected suggestions to join and head the anti-Kuchma opposition grouped in the Forum for National Salvation and the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement. Therefore, the forum's recently created election committee - the Fatherland Party, Sobor Party, Social Democratic Party, Conservative Republican Party and Republican Party - will most likely compete for parliamentary seats with Mr. Yuschenko's people.

True, Yulia Tymoshenko, a former close associate of Mr. Yuschenko in his Cabinet and currently the head of the forum's election committee, said her bloc is going to propose "peaceful co-existence or cooperation" to Mr. Yuschenko. But it is difficult to see how such a goal can be achieved in practice, especially as both Our Ukraine and the Forum for National Salvation heavily rely on voter support in western Ukraine.

Following in Mr. Yuschenko's and Ms. Tymoshenko's footsteps, other groups also have announced their political alliances for the 2002 ballot. Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz said his party will make an election alliance with the All-Ukrainian Party of Working People, the Social Democratic Party, the Party for the Protection of Agrarian Interests and the Greens of the 21st Century.

The pro-Kuchma parties - the Agrarian Party, the National Democratic Party, Party of the Regions and Labor Ukraine Party - signed a declaration to create a joint election bloc.

Ivan Chyzh, the leader of the All-Ukrainian Association of Leftist "Justice" (and a former associate of Mr. Moroz), announced that he is currently negotiating the construction of a "very original and very powerful" election bloc.

Furthermore, two pro-Russian parties are working to create a separate coalition named the Russian Bloc for the 2002 parliamentary elections.

One should also remember the powerful Communist Party of Ukraine, which has voter approval of not below 20 percent. And there are two influential oligarchical parties, the Social Democratic Party (United) and the Democratic Union, which, according to popular opinion, possess big administrative, financial and media leverage in Ukrainian politics.

Thus, Mr. Yuschenko faces an uphill task in building and promoting his bloc in Ukraine's political arena. The initial conditions for his initiative are auspicious. According to some analysts, Our Ukraine can currently count on some 23 percent support among the electorate, which means that the planned bloc is already the country's most popular political force.

But the election campaign has not yet started. And this also means that Mr. Yuschenko's rivals have not yet started to work toward undermining his political clout.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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