ANALYSIS: Ukraine and Belarus are among leading arms-exporting states (09/09/01)

ANALYSIS

Ukraine and Belarus are among leading arms-exporting states

by Andrew F. Tully
RFE/RL Newsline

A U.S. analysis of international arms sales says the United States, Russia, and France are the three leading exporters of military hardware to developing countries. It also ranks Belarus and Ukraine within the top 10.

Experts say this is not surprising because Belarus and Ukraine still have the factories used to make the arms and other military equipment that were the hallmark of the Soviet economy before the breakup of the USSR.

The 83-page report is titled "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993 to 2000." It is prepared and updated each year by the U.S. Congressional Research Service. Like its other studies, the service distributes its documents only to members of Congress, who often share them with the news media.

The report focuses on the world's top three arms exporters. The United States it says, ranked first in agreements to sell arms during 2000. These contracts totaled $12.6 billion, or nearly 50 percent of all international arms contracts throughout the year. Russia was the second place country in this category, agreeing to sell $7.4 billion worth of arms, or just over 29 percent of the value of all such contracts. France was third, contracting to sell $2.1 billion worth of military hardware, or a bit more than 8 percent of the total.

The report often cites exports by only the leading seven countries: the United States, Russia, France, Britain, China, Germany and Italy. But more detailed tables deep within the report rank Belarus No. 8 in arms deliveries to developing nations in 2000, and Ukraine at No. 10. Both delivered military hardware valued at $200 million to their clients.

For the period from 1997 through 2000, Ukraine ranked eighth in such deliveries, with a total of $1.5 billion, and Belarus ranked ninth, with a total of $1.1 billion. The two former Soviet republics were not ranked for the period from 1993 through 1996 because their sales volumes were so low at that time.

Aside from the ethical questions of weapons proliferation, such international sales can be important to a nation's economy. But analysts interviewed by RFE/RL say their dependence on arms exports can be an indication that the economies of Belarus and Ukraine may be stagnating.

Richard Thornton, a professor of history and international affairs at George Washington University in Washington, told RFE/RL that the amount of military hardware that both Belarus and Ukraine delivered to foreign customers last year shows that their economies have not evolved properly from the Soviet era.

"Their economies remain very narrowly focused in the way that they were before communism collapsed. All of these were part of the Soviet economy then, and one of the fundamental reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union was the fact that they could not expand their domestic economic base in a way sufficient to account for consumer needs," Prof. Thornton explained.

He said the blame lies squarely with the leadership in both countries. Recalling that after World War II U.S. companies quickly shifted production from military hardware to consumer goods, Prof. Thornton says this refitting or "retooling" of factories has not yet happened in the manufacturing sectors of the Belarusian and Ukrainian economies.

"They've had a decade to undertake a retooling process, and I don't see it happening," he said.

According to Prof. Thornton, this stagnation is particularly puzzling given the amount of money that the International Monetary Fund and private Western industries have invested in the countries to help them broaden their economies. Now, he said, private investment has fallen off because Belarus and Ukraine have also failed to modernize their legal systems to ensure that investments are safeguarded and that contracts are upheld.

Anders Aslund, an economic analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a private Washington policy center, agreed that Belarus and Ukraine have until recently been slow to expand their economies. He said the government of Belarus has shed so little of its Soviet past that it is shunned by many other countries. In fact, in terms of arms sales, Mr. Aslund said the Belarusian government has no scruples about who its customers are for military hardware.

"Belarus is prepared to sell to whomever, and since that is almost an outcast state, they [Belarus] are probably the most dangerous ones from a U.S. foreign policy perspective," Mr. Aslund noted.

Mr. Aslund said the same was true for Ukraine until last year, when economic reforms were instituted by Viktor Yuschenko, Ukraine's prime minister at the time, and Yulia Tymoshenko, who controlled the country's energy sector.

The Yuschenko government since then lost a vote of confidence in Parliament, but Mr. Aslund said President Leonid Kuchma appears not to be abandoning Mr. Yuschenko's economic reforms. And, he added these reforms are likely to produce economic growth of at least 10 percent this year. He cited aggressive economic growth in such sectors as agriculture, land ownership and light industry, to name just three.

"There has been a massive structural change in the last one and a half years. Before that, it [Ukraine's economy] was extremely stagnant for a long time," Mr. Aslund stated.

As for Belarus, Mr. Aslund said the only hope is that the people vote President Alyaksandr Lukashenka out of office in the September 9 elections. He says he is slightly optimistic about the future of the country's economy, but only because Mr. Lukashenka's re-election is not assured.

Andrew F. Tully is a senior correspondent for RFE/RL.

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