How many Ukrainians are there in the U.S.? First estimates for the year 2000
by Oleh Wolowyna
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly
Many persons have been anxiously awaiting the 2000 U.S. Census results on the number of Ukrainians in the United States. Unfortunately, the census figures on ancestry will not be available until the later part of the year 2002.
However, the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey provides estimates on the number of persons by ancestry in the United States, including Ukrainians. (As this is likely to be a source of confusion, it is important to stress that the recently released data on ancestry are not 2000 Census data but survey data, and they have strong limitations which will be discussed below.)
According to the survey, the total number of Ukrainians in 2000 was 862,416, a 16.4 percent increase from the 1990 census estimate of 740,803. In 1990 the number of persons who declared Ukrainian as their first (or only) ancestry was 514,085, or 69.4 percent of the total; in 2000 this percentage increased to 72.2 percent (the absolute number was 622,491). Thus, not only the number of Ukrainians in the United States increased since 1990, but also the proportion of persons with Ukrainian as their first (or only) ancestry has increased.
The increase in the number of Ukrainians is due to two factors. First, there has been a relatively large immigration from Ukraine and other Eastern European countries during the last decade. Second, the independence of Ukraine is likely to have influenced some persons for the first time to declare "Ukrainian" as their ancestry, while previously they probably reported a different ancestry (or ancestries).
The relative increase in the total number of Ukrainians in the United States between 1990 and 2000 is actually higher. If we assume no in- or out-migration and no assimilation, the 740,800 Ukrainians in 1990 would become 739,000 in 2000, as this group has more deaths than births. If we further assume a conservative 10 percent loss due to assimilation, the expected number of Ukrainians would be 665,000. If we compare this estimate with the 862,416 estimate for 2000, the actual increase is 30 percent. This increase is due to the two factors mentioned above.
But, in order to measure the relative weight of these two factors, we need to wait for the more detailed 2000 Census data, and to analyze out-migration statistics from Ukraine and in-migration statistics in the United States.
It is important to define precisely the concept of "Ukrainian" in this context. Both the 1990 and 2000 censuses, as well as the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey, asked the question "What is this person's ancestry?"
In order to measure the effects of intermarriage in American society, more than one answer was allowed (for example, Ukrainian and Polish, or German and Latvian). If more than two answers were provided, only the first two answers were coded. Thus, all persons who answered that "Ukrainian" was their first or second ancestry were counted as "Ukrainian."
The concept of "Ukrainian" used here is based on self-reporting, and respondents had total freedom to report any ancestry(ies) they wished.
It is also important to reiterate that these are not 2000 Census data, but data from a survey that was conducted during the year 2000. The survey is based on a national sample of 700,000 people and was conducted in 1,023 out of the 3,286 counties in the United States. This means that the survey interviewed persons in only about a third of all the counties in the United States, and the total number of households interviewed was about 0.6 percent of all the households in the country. Thus, the data are subject to sampling error, which can be substantial for small numbers. For larger numbers the sampling error is not very big, but for small values it can be quite big.
For example, the survey estimate of Ukrainians in Florida in 2000 was 37,584, and the sampling error range is between 31,621 and 43,547. In other words, the correct number of Ukrainians in Florida can vary between 31,600 and 43,500. In the case of North Carolina, the estimated number of Ukrainians is 6,335, and the sampling error range is between 3,886 and 8,784. This is a very large margin of error, as the correct number of Ukrainians in North Carolina can be anywhere between 3,900 and 8,800. Thus, these survey results should be taken as preliminary estimates until more precise census data become available some time next year. Therefore, the smaller estimates need to be used with great caution.
It should also be pointed out that the question on ancestry, as well as the question on language spoken at home and many other questions in the census were asked in the so-called "long form," which was distributed to approximately one in six households. Thus, the census data also has sampling error but, given the large sample used in the census, the sampling error is much smaller and the census numbers are much more reliable.
In order to put the number of Ukrainians in perspective, we can compare their number with the number of selected Eastern European ancestry groups. The largest Eastern European ancestry group in 2000 is Polish, with 9 million persons; it is followed by Russian with 3 million, Hungarian with 1.5 million and Czech with 1.4 million. The other Eastern European ancestry groups are smaller than the Ukrainian group. Carpatho-Rusyns are listed as a separate ancestry group with 10,200.
The survey data provide estimates for ancestry groups for the United States and by state, and numbers for each ancestry are reported by first and second ancestry (results for major cities will be made available in the near future). Here we present some figures by state, and make some comparisons with 1990 census data.
Table 1 presents the 10 states with the largest numbers of Ukrainians in the year 2000. A total of 137,000 Ukrainians (or 16 percent of all Ukrainians in the U.S.) live in New York state, followed by 126,000 in Pennsylvania (or 14.6 percent). The other states in descending order are New Jersey, California, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Washington and Connecticut.
Several changes have occurred in this ranking since 1990. Pennsylvania, which ranked first in 1990, dropped to second place in 2000 and was replaced by New York, which now has the largest number of Ukrainians. Also, Illinois and Ohio switched places, with Illinois having more Ukrainians than Ohio in 2000. The big surprise is Washington, which increased its number of Ukrainians from 10,800 in 1990 to 36,600 in 2000, and as a result displaced Connecticut from ninth to 10th place.
The 10 top states comprise 77 percent of all Ukrainians in the United States, which shows that Ukrainians are still highly concentrated in a few states.
As mentioned above, 72.2 percent of all Ukrainians reported "Ukrainian" as their first (or only ancestry). As can be observed in Table 1, in the top 10 states this percentage varies between 66.3 percent for Connecticut and 72.5 percent for New York, and the majority of the other states fall within this range.
The most surprising exception is Washington, with 95 percent with "Ukrainian" as the first (or only) ancestry. One possible explanation for this is that a large proportion of Ukrainians in Washington state are recent immigrants from Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union. This merits further investigation once the 2000 Census data become available.
If we rank the states by the growth of the Ukrainian group between 1990 and 2000, Washington had by far the largest increase with 238.5 percent. Four states - Tennessee, South Dakota, Montana and Iowa - had increases between 150 percent and 190 percent during the last decade; the states of Utah, South Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana and Oregon show an increase in the 59 percent to 81.55 ranges. However, the number of Ukrainians in these states is quite small, and these numbers are not reliable, due to the large sampling errors of the 2000 estimates. It is likely that most of these states have experienced a significant influx of Ukrainians from other states or from abroad, but it is impossible to measure this increase with an acceptable degree of confidence.
These results, although preliminary, seem to indicate that the geographical dispersion of Ukrainians detected during the 1980-1990 decade is continuing, but its impact at the aggregated level is modest. The top 10 states with the largest numbers of Ukrainians remain the same (with one exception); this indicates that the majority of Ukrainians still live in the states of their original settlement. The only exceptions are Florida and Washington. While the growth of Ukrainians in Florida has been taking place mostly during the last two decades, the growth in Washington has occurred in the last decade.
Besides the problem with sampling error discussed above, the survey data are quite limited, as they provide only the number of Ukrainians by state and for cities with more than 250,000 inhabitants, and the only detail available is data by first and second ancestry.
The only national and fairly reliable source of data on all Ukrainians in the United States is the census. Once these data become available sometime next year, we will have at our disposal a wealth of data on demographic, socio-economic, household and housing characteristics of all persons who declared "Ukrainian" as their ancestry. An in-depth analysis of this data can provide us with a detailed picture of the status of the whole group and its potential, both at the national and local levels.
These figures can be used for political campaigns, planning of fund-raising activities, membership drives for professional and other organizations, estimation of potential readers of Ukrainian publications or of children for Saturday schools, demand for social services for senior citizens, etc. Also, the 2000 Census will provide some insight on the level and characteristics of recent immigrants from Ukraine and other former republics of the Soviet Union.
As similar data are available for 1980 and 1990, one can explore in detail issues related to language assimilation, intermarriage, social mobility, etc. Based on these analyses, projections can be made about the future size of the group, its composition by age and sex, as well as the potential number of Ukrainian speakers.
In this era of information and technology, organizations and social groups that do not use objective information for their decision-making put themselves at a great disadvantage.
Oleh Wolowyna is president of Informed Decisions Inc. based in Chapel Hill, N.C. A demographer, he has written previously for The Ukrainian Weekly about the U.S. Census and Ukrainians in the United States.
| Area | Total Ukrainians |
Year 2000 | |||
| 2000 | 1990 | % of Total | Cumulative % | % 1st Ancestry | |
| United States | 862,416 | 740,803 | NA | NA | 72 |
| New York | 137,264 | 121,113 | 16 | 16 | 72 |
| Pennsylvania | 125,990 | 129,753 | 15 | 31 | 67 |
| New Jersey | 84,790 | 73,935 | 10 | 40 | 66 |
| California | 82,974 | 56,211 | 10 | 50 | 79 |
| Michigan | 46,870 | 43,914 | 5 | 55 | 68 |
| Illinois | 45,259 | 38,414 | 5 | 61 | 82 |
| Ohio | 44,949 | 43,569 | 5 | 66 | 67 |
| Florida | 37,584 | 33,792 | 4 | 70 | 67 |
| Washington | 36,603 | 10,814 | 4 | 74 | 95 |
| Connecticut | 20,705 | 23,711 | 2 | 77 | 66 |
Sources: 1990, US 1990 Census; 2000, Census 2000 Supplementary Survey.
Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, September 9, 2001, No. 36, Vol. LXIX
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