Various polls show Yushchenko's bloc in the lead
by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau
KYIV - Most Ukrainian pollsters released their final prognoses for the elections to the Verkhovna Rada on March 14, which showed that the Our Ukraine election bloc has continued to gather popularity among voters and slowly has moved away from its nearest competitor, the Communist Party of Ukraine.
While there still are two weeks left before the March 31 parliamentary elections, Ukrainian law demands that a polling blackout begin on March 16. The final surveys showed that six to 10 parties had a chance to gather at least 4 percent of the electoral vote and win seating allotments in the 450-member Verkhovna Rada. They also showed that, even with government and media resources at their disposal, the two most powerful political organizations, the For a United Ukraine Bloc and the Social Democratic Party (United), still have managed to obtain only between 5 and 8.5 percent electoral support.
One of the most respected polls, prepared by the Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies, found that 23.9 percent of 2,010 respondents questioned favored Our Ukraine.
The Communist Party came next in the poll at 16.8 percent, with the Social Democratic Party (United) following at 8 percent. After them came the For a United Ukraine bloc at 7 percent, the Green Party (Partia Zelenykh Ukrainy) at 5.5 percent and the Union of Women for the Future at 4.1 percent. The Razumkov Center poll, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent, showed that the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Democratic Party/Democratic Union, the Unity Bloc and the Yabluko Party still have a chance to surpass the 4 percent barrier.
Our Ukraine, led by ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, looked strongest in a poll conducted by the SOCIS Center for Political and Electoral Studies and commissioned by Democratic Initiatives, a Ukrainian civic organization. It showed Our Ukraine performing at an approval rating of 25.3 percent popular support. The Communist Party came in a distant second at 12.5 percent, followed by the For a United Ukraine bloc in third at 7 percent, Women for the Future next at 6.2 percent and the Social Democratic Party (United) at 5.7 percent.
The survey had a 3 percent margin of error, which means that the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc at 3.7 percent and the Green party at 3.1 percent also had a chance to break through.
A third poll, this one by the Center for Social Monitoring and the Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, gave an indication as to the rating tendencies of the various political organizations over the last several months. It determined that the popularity of the Our Ukraine Bloc had fallen from a peak rating of 25.2 percent at the end of February to 21.3 percent in the second week of March. However, the poll showed that the decline had occurred after Our Ukraine had watched its rating rise through the high teens into the twenties in the first part of this year.
Meanwhile the Communists, whose popularity had been declining for the last several months from a high of 18.1 percent in October of last year, saw a gain of several points from 11.9 percent in late February to 15.2 percent in early March.
The pro-presidential For a United Ukraine bloc also watched its fortunes improve in March. The bloc's rating climbed from a late February figure of 6.2 percent to 8.5 percent. Meanwhile the Social Democratic Party (United) has slowly moved up over the last months from a 4.4 percent rating at the beginning of the year to 7.8 percent in March.
According to the polls, the Ukrainian Parliament could lose two pro-leftist parties, which had been influential for nearly a decade but have seen their fortunes decline in the last two years. Today the Socialist Party of Ukraine, chaired by Oleksander Moroz, and the Progressive Socialist Party of Natalia Vitrenko (Natalia Vitrenko Bloc) are in danger of failing to gain 4 percent of the popular vote, which would exclude them from the Verkhovna Rada. In most polls they are hovering at between 2 and 4 percent.
A factor that could play to their benefit and strengthen the situation of the Communist Party as well, is the relatively large number of voters who are still undecided as to how they will vote on election day. In the Razumkov Center poll 12.5 percent of the respondents had yet to decide whom they would support. The SOCIS poll put that figure at 16.6 percent, while the Center for Social Monitoring/Ukrainian Institute for Social Research poll found 12.2 percent of respondents still undecided. Another poll, issued by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, had the number as high as 30 percent.
A political consensus exists that a good portion of the undecided voters are pro-leftist supporters who for historical and other reasons are leery of revealing their true intentions. Some political experts believe that if they come out of the political woodwork they could raise the final Communist tally to at least 25 percent.
However, the Razumkov Center survey suggested that a good portion of the Ukrainian populace would disagree with such an assertion. In one question the respondents were asked whether they believe their votes would affect the outcome of the March 31 tally. Fully 54 percent said that their vote did not matter, while just over 33 percent said they believe they could affect change.
In another poll the respondents were even more cynical. A survey by the Center for Political Analysis and Consultation revealed that 53.6 percent of Ukrainians believe the political playing field for these elections is not level, while 49.5 percent think that some sort of vote fraud will occur on March 31.
| Name of party or political bloc |
Approval rating of party/bloc % of those who will vote |
Approval rating of leader % of respondents | ||
|
February 1/30-2/6 |
February 2/9-2/27 |
March 2/28-3/6 |
March 2/28-3/6 |
| Our Ukraine bloc (Yushchenko) | 18.8 | 20.1 | 23.9 | 29.3 |
| Communist Party of Ukraine | 15.2 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 15.9 |
| Social Democratic Party (United) | 5.3 | 8 | 8 | 9.6 |
| For a United Ukraine | 3.9 | 6.5 | 7 | 4.4 |
| Women for the Future | 5.3 | 5 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Party of Greens of Ukraine | 6 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Natalia Vitrenko Bloc | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 7 |
| Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 9.5 |
| Socialist Party of Ukraine | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| Yabluko Party | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Unity Bloc | 1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| Democratic Party of Ukraine Bloc/ Democratic Union Party |
1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Other | 8.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | |
| Would vote against all parties/blocs | 6.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | |
| Difficult to answer | 18.5 | 15.4 | 12.5 | |
Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, March 17, 2002, No. 11, Vol. LXX
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