On the campaign trail: Stryi's national deputy seeks re-election (03/31/02)

On the campaign trail: Stryi's national deputy seeks re-election

by Stephen Bandera

STRYI, Ukraine - At the outset of the campaign, Ihor Ostash and his election team set a goal: to visit every single city, town and village in electoral district No. 127. The 200-square-kilometer district's heart is the western Ukrainian city of Stryi (population: 70,000), whose claim to recent historical fame is that the blue-and-yellow was first raised here, back in 1990.

Mr. Ostash is the two-term, incumbent national deputy from the district. He is also the chairman of the influential Foreign Affairs Committee in the Verkhovna Rada and the vice-president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Mr. Ostash's high-profile international activities are both assets and liabilities for his re-election bid.

His opponents charge that Mr. Ostash spends too much time abroad, and thus is unable to devote time and energy to issues that affect the everyday lives of his constituents. This allegation, together with the general "mood for change" among the population, and a dismal 2001 harvest in the Lviv Oblast (the worst among all oblasts), in theory should not bode well for the incumbent.

Western Ukraine, however, is a highly politicized place. During the town hall meetings, the most frequently asked questions focus on lost savings in Soviet and Ukrainian banks, pensions and payments to Ostarbeiters and creation of jobs. In every village, once Mr. Ostash addresses these issues, an elder will inevitably stand up and angrily ask "Why do you let those Commies speak Russian in Parliament?" Independence, statehood, the language issue and the "national idea" are very important in the relatively poorer regions of Western Ukraine.

Another Mr. Ostash asset is the fact that he is endorsed by the Nasha Ukrayina bloc, led by former Prime Minister Victor Yushchenko. The NU bloc's popularity ratings are consistently in the 65-70 percent range in Striy, occasionally losing ground to the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, whose party list includes the fiery lady and a splash of nationalists.

Mr. Ostash's personal ratings trailed those of the Our Ukraine bloc, prior to Mr. Yushchenko's visit to Stryi in the last two weeks of the campaign. The visit gave Mr. Ostash a boost, both on the emotional level, as well as in the ratings. After hearing Mr. Yushchenko speak, and seeing him embrace Mr. Ostash, one candidate withdrew from the race, publicly endorsing Mr. Ostash.

That leaves 14 candidates vying for the Stryi seat. Mr. Ostash's main opponent is Vitalii Antonov, a slick, young businessman who owns a network of gas stations throughout western Ukraine, by virtue of his control over Halnaftohaz, a regional oil and gas company with backing from Yukos, the second largest oil company in Russia.

Mr. Antonov's candidacy is endorsed by the For a United Ukraine bloc, a combination of pro-presidential "parties of power" who have the weighty administrative resources at their disposal. "Adminresurs," refers to the levers of power, including organizational and financial resources, available to the vertical national-to-local governmental network of the president's administration.

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Antonov has been throwing around money, cars and computers to hospitals, schools, charities and churches. His generosity, although legally questionable, has been gratefully accepted by most recipients. Some influential local leaders have joined the Antonov campaign, because he is a successful, fresh face, who has financial resources the other candidates can only dream of. Mr. Antonov's campaign literature is full-color and looks expensive. His smiling, Ken-doll face adorns every second storefront in Stryi.

Yet the connection between Mr. Antonov and For a United Ukraine is absent from the propaganda. Acknowledging Mr. Yushchenko's popularity, the Antonov campaign team has deliberately distanced the candidate from the "parties of power," and is trying to jump on the Yushchenko bandwagon by associating the successful, young businessman with the successful, young banker that is Mr. Yushchenko. "We studied at the same university," Antonov told an audience of potential voters. "I will work with Mr. Yushchenko and support his course." Mr. Antonov also claims the support of the local organization of Mr. Ostash's own Reforms and Order Party - a member of the Our Ukraine bloc.

Mr. Antonov faces some hurdles of his own. First, he is an ethnic Russian (although his Ukrainian language skills are impeccable), whose parents arrived in Stryi in the 1950s, when the Soviet Union deliberately settled western Ukraine with ethnic Russians and other non-native groups in an effort to control the independence-minded population. Secondly, the local population was not impressed with flashy advertising in 1998. In those elections, Mr. Ostash's main opponent was Bohdan Puzhak, also a successful businessman with lots of nice posters. In those elections, Mr. Ostash beat Mr. Puzhak by 4 percent in a field of 18 candidates. Mr. Ostash won with nearly 43,000 votes, while Mr. Puzhak secured just over 37,000.

According to the conservative estimates of Mr. Ostash's own public opinion polls, he leads Mr. Antonov by some 10 to 15 percent. With less than ten days to go in the election campaign, some 10 percent of voters still were undecided - thus, the lead was far from comfortable.

A local journalist, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, notes some differences between the 2002 and 1998 campaigns. First off, Mr. Antonov is spending far more money than Mr. Puzhak did in 1998. Secondly, it seems Mr. Ostash is spending less. "Money is playing too important a role in these elections," the journalist said, "Ostash may be spending too little, too late. When Mr. Antonov began his campaign in December, the consensus was that his chances were minimal. Now it's anyone's race - Stryi has never seen this kind of public relations."

The journalist's demand for anonymity also is telling - Mr. Antonov has practically bought out all the local newspaper, radio and TV outlets. "He pays us, we print it," the journalist explained. When asked why he prefers to remain anonymous, the journalist explained that he is not sure what will be after election day.

Mr. Antonov's campaign has resorted also to tactics such as sending a group of four teenagers to sabotage Mr. Ostash's town hall meetings. They follow him around from village to village, and begin catcalling when Mr. Ostash starts his talk. In most of the villages the locals chase them out themselves, but the atmosphere remains tense and confrontational throughout the meetings.

Mr. Ostash's campaign is further complicated by the appearance of a "twin" on the election ballot - Ivan Ostash. This "political technology" has been imported from Russia, and is intended to confuse voters, particularly the elderly, and split votes between the "twins." Mr. Ostash's people see Mr. Antonov behind the scheme; Mr. Antonov charges that Mr. Ostash is trying to draw attention to himself. As it turns out, Antonov and the other Mr. Ostash studied together at Professional Technical Institute No.8.

Voters are further confused by both candidates claiming to be responsible for the single largest investment in Stryi by the German firm Leoni AG. The investment of 80 million DM that will create over 5,400 jobs has become a central issue in the campaign. In reality, both Mr. Ostash and the members of For a United Ukraine lobbied for the building of a state-of-the-art automotive wiring factory.

It is too soon to call a clear winner in district No. 127. The results will answer some interesting questions: Can an ethnic Russian win a seat in Western Ukraine? Have the priorities for the electorate there changed from "national idea" issues to be more about money?

Thus far, one thing is clear: the campaign in district No. 127 has proven President Leonid Kuchma's pre-campaign prediction that these elections will be a very dirty affair, to be very true.

Stephen Bandera is the editor of RCC Political Review, a free e-publication from Romyr Consultants Corp., produced in Kyiv.

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