Experts predict friction in new Verkhovna Rada (04/21/02)

Experts predict friction in new Verkhovna Rada

by Andrew Nynka

NEW YORK - Speaking in relative unison over the course of several days here, notable Ukrainian scholars and experts stressed their belief that the newly elected Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's national legislature, would be marked by friction, horse trading and paralysis following the March 31 parliamentary election in which no one group received an overwhelming majority of seats.

Even more so, many of the academics stressed that a sustainable union of several political blocs attempting to create a majority coalition within the Rada would not only prove a difficult task, but that the make-up of any possible coalition could be viewed as dynamic and unstable.

While experts regarded the direction the Verkhovna Rada would take over the next four years as uncertain, many Ukrainian political specialists agreed that the election itself was an extremely important step in springboarding possible presidential contenders into the national limelight prior to the 2004 race. They also observed that the election results lessened the possibility of presidential manipulation or changes in Ukraine's Constitution.

Until recently, anti-presidential forces asserted that Leonid Kuchma might seek to amend the Constitution of Ukraine in order to allow himself a possible third term or, with a strong pro-presidential parliamentary leaning in the Verkhovna Rada, could ensure his safe retirement without the threat of impeachment proceedings.

Speaking at the Ukrainian Institute of America here on April 10 and referring to President Kuchma's possible reaction to the election outcome, Prof. Paul d'Anieri of the University of Kansas called the president "frightened" and said that "any possible thoughts of constitutional change would not be able to carry the necessary majority [in the Verkhovna Rada]."

The academics also indicated that the election showed a shift in Ukrainian politics. Dr. Taras Kuzio of the University of Toronto said the use of current political positions to sway voters and numerous election violations by the party of power, For a United Ukraine, did not translate into a winning election strategy. "They may have money and control of certain media, however, it did not translate into votes," he said.

Referring to the success of former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine election bloc, Prof. d'Anieri said it is "a sign of his strength leading into the coming presidential elections." However, Prof. d'Anieri also stressed that the most influential institution in Ukraine is not the Parliament but the presidency. "And in that regard," said the scholar, "clearly Yushchenko has positioned himself well for the coming presidential election."

Dr. Kuzio, a prominent specialist on politics in Ukraine and a long-term election monitor, called the elections "the dirtiest yet," citing a "massive use of administrative resources" because "the people in power had far more to lose."

He noted a large contrast between the east and west of Ukraine, calling the Donbas and Luhansk regions "Ukraine's Jurassic Park" - a reference to the politically backward Soviet-style regime. Speaking at the UIA on April 10, Dr. Kuzio highlighted what he believed to be the transparency and relative fairness of the elections in the west versus "a massive intrusion of the executive into the elections" in the east of Ukraine.

In Eastern election districts, reports have indicated a strong government influence, with the party of power receiving nearly 100 percent of the vote in many prisons (an indication, many experts believe, of election fraud and vote rigging), as well as stories of mobile ballot boxes circulating through insane asylums.

Dr. Kuzio argued that, although deficiencies in implementing democratic principles into elections still exist, the vote was a final show of two things: the strengthening of Ukrainian statehood; and Communism's continued decline as an influential factor in Ukrainian politics.

He also added that the elections demonstrated the Ukrainian people's interest in statehood and that any interest in a Belarusian or Russian union is clearly a minority opinion. He went on to say that, though there may be strong opposition to the pro-presidential election bloc For a United Ukraine, "we must recognize that they are a force for statehood."

Prof. Alexander J. Motyl of Rutgers University, also at the UIA on April 10, countered Dr. Kuzio's view of Communism's decline in Ukrainian politics and said that Ukrainian politicians often change ideologies when threatened by extinction and for that reason Communists should not be disregarded in future elections or parliamentary politics.

Speaking at the seventh annual World Convention of the Association for the Study of Nationalities at Columbia University on April 12, Prof. Lowell W. Barrington of Marquette University said that, without a clear parliamentary majority, the number of possible coalitions capable of forming a majority would be numerous and would depend on the legislative issue at hand.

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