ANALYSIS: Ukrainian society and 'Kuchmagate' two years after Gongadze murder (10/13/02)

ANALYSIS

Ukrainian society and 'Kuchmagate' two years after Gongadze murder

by Dr. Viktor Stepanenko
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

For the past two years, the unsolved murder of Internet journalist Heorhii Gongadze and the unanswered questions of "Kuchmagate" (the scandal connected with the publication of secret audiotapes made by former security officer Mykola Melnychenko in President Leonid Kuchma's office) have been two of the most serious topics in Ukrainian political life.

Kuchmagate has raised such fundamental issues of Ukraine's political transformation as the legal and moral legitimacy of the authorities, widespread corruption of the political and economic elite, and systematic persecutions of the political opposition and free media.

At the same time, the ongoing, latent political crisis in the country has also led to certain positive trends associated with the signs of emerging democratic activism. The opposition protest action "Arise, Ukraine!" is an example of this.

The authorities have so far managed to "marginalize" opposition activities and the mass political protests that resulted from Kuchmagate. In official media outlets, the large-scale political scandal and public reaction to it have often been presented as a routine criminal case and insidious intrigue by political opponents, who are often portrayed as "irresponsible adventurers, losers and marginal players." The remark by Internal Affairs Minister Yurii Smirnov at a recent news conference about "criminals and mentally ill people who are attracted by the upcoming protests" is fully in line with this manipulative strategy.

However, unresolved issues of the Kuchmagate scandal have also confirmed that Ukrainian society suffers from a lack of trustworthy moral authorities (both individuals and institutions) that advocate public interest in the search for truth in the Kuchmagate story. Kuchmagate has shown that private feelings and emotions still do not transform into public opinion, which is an important tool of civil society. Paraphrasing the Georgian philosopher Merab Mamardashvili, we can say that during Kuchmagate the Ukrainian public has demonstrated its inability to draw moral and political conclusions regarding complex issues. And public actions in the absence of developed public opinion have so far appeared to be inconsistent and irresolute.

However, it would not be fair to accuse the Ukrainian public of political passivity in fighting for their rights. One should take into account that the official propaganda machinery has contributed enormously to making the moral and rational choice of political positions a very complicated and nearly impossible issue for a majority of citizens.

According to a poll of a representative sample of 1,800 respondents by the National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology in March 2001, the more people were informed about Kuchmagate from various sources, the more they believed in the authenticity of the Melnychenko tapes.

Some international bodies have claimed that the portions of the tapes they reviewed were authentic, and Ukrainian authorities have acknowledged that their voices are on the tapes. Paradoxically, however, the main question raised by the scandal is not about the authenticity of Mr. Melnychenko's tapes as such, but rather about the possibility, even if hypothetical, of bringing a case allegedly involving the country's top officials to court in Ukraine.

This important point has not become a legal question in Ukraine. The reasons for this are the people's underdeveloped legal culture and the absence of a system of civic control over the authorities. It is noteworthy that the erstwhile intentions of some officials, including Verkhovna Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn, to protect their "honor and dignity" from "the lies on the tapes" have remained unfulfilled. And, newly appointed Ukrainian Procurator General Sviatoslav Piskun is still hesitating about whether to question Mr. Melnychenko directly.

An analysis of the March 2001 survey also reveals a clear correlation between the level of respondents' knowledge of Kuchmagate and their readiness to take part in the "For the Truth" protest campaign in 2001. Kuchmagate has confirmed the axiom that citizens' knowledge and free access to different sources of information increase their ability to make political decisions and develop their political culture.

Is the situation different today? What are the prospects for the "Arise, Ukraine!" protest campaign? As previous experience has shown, sociological measurement of the population's protest potential can hardly estimate all the complexity and unpredictability of future events. Statistical laws can be very unreliable for assessing a political crisis. Sociologists know about the so-called "shifted-involvement" phenomenon, when a seemingly inert civil society, which is concentrated during "calm" periods upon local community-oriented issues and initiatives, actively mobilizes itself during nationwide political crises of the kind Ukraine is experiencing now. The near future will show whether a weak, though slowly emerging, Ukrainian civil society can take another important step in its development.

Dr. Viktor Stepanenko is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and director of the Center for Public Policy Development.

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