ANALYSIS: Challenges and hopes of Ukraine's crisis of power (11/17/02)

ANALYSIS

Challenges and hopes of Ukraine's crisis of power

by Viktor Stepanenko
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Two recent political events have revealed that there is a deep crisis within the present system of political power in Ukraine.

After many failed attempts by lawmakers to vote efficiently at a plenary meeting of the Verkhovna Rada on October 24, Parliament Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn publicly admitted that the pro-presidential parliamentary majority is politically incapable. The next day, the latent governmental crisis took a new turn. Pro-Kuchma parliamentary groups proposed to the president four candidates for the post of prime minister: Prime Minister Anatolii Kinakh (backed by the Medvedchuk-Surkis economic-political group), First Deputy Prime Minister Oleh Dubyna (allegedly supported by President Leonid Kuchma), State Tax Administration head Mykola Azarov, and Donetsk Oblast Chairman Viktor Yanukovych, who is supported by Donetsk economic and political clans.

Why do the pro-presidential parties intend to change the government? The official reason voiced by these parties is their attempt to form a coalition government that would take political responsibility for the country.

But do the pro-presidential parties, which represent less than a quarter of Ukrainian voters, have a political and moral legitimacy to form a government? The present government already includes representatives of these pro-presidential political groups. Besides, no one can ensure that the next Cabinet, the ninth in independent Ukraine, will be better or more responsible than the present one or all the previous ones.

Many observers believe, however, that the real explanation for the current political rush toward forming a new Cabinet of Minister lies in the emerging context of the presidential elections that will take place at the end of 2004. President Leonid Kuchma has recently confirmed this belief, accusing the political opposition of initiating the presidential race almost two years before it should actually begin.

The governing clans clearly understand that they have to think seriously now about how to secure their economic and political leverage in Ukraine in the future. During the two years of the ongoing "Kuchmagate" scandal, their hopes of prolonging the "comfortable" rule of President Kuchma for one more presidential term have been completely buried. This can be seen as one of the real successes of Ukraine's democratic opposition.

Ukraine's ruling clans face an enormous challenge in determining a successor to the president. The current quest for the post of prime minister, which is widely believed to be the best springboard for a run for the presidency, indicates that nothing has been decided in this regard.

According to many observers, the absence of a real successor to the president among oligarchic groups and the fear that Viktor Yushchenko might become Ukraine's next president were the real motives behind President Kuchma's declared intention of reforming the system of power in Ukraine with the aim of diminishing the constitutional prerogatives of the head of state.

Ukraine's current political situation is characterized by a deep crisis that has infected all the branches of power. The governing elite cannot rule the country efficiently. However, new political leaders have not yet obtained sufficient support among the population in order to be able to replace the old leaders

According to a recent analysis by Oleksander Razumkov of the Center for Political and Economic Studies in Zerkalo Nedeli on October 26, the dominant part of the Ukrainian population is still a "silent majority" that is reluctant to participate in political activities, let alone political protests against the government. And public opinion in Ukraine, which mistrusts current political leaders in general, and Mr. Kuchma in particular, has not yet turned into a significant factor influencing political decision-making in the country.

Thus, there is a shaky balance of powers in Ukraine: "the rulers" cannot rule, and "the masses" do not want them to rule, but are still unprepared to change the situation. Such political deadlock is a characteristic of a revolutionary situation.

There are some signs of hope, however. This hope is connected to a recent decision by the Constitutional Court to recognize as constitutional a draft bill proposed by the opposition to introduce amendments to the Constitution. The draft seeks to increase the role of the Parliament by giving it the right to form the Cabinet of Ministers and to appoint key state officials, including the procurator general. The draft also provides for forming the parliamentary majority based on the results of parliamentary elections under a proportional election system and; it also specifies the rights of parliamentary opposition.

In fact, this draft, which was first proposed in February 2001, encompasses some of the political reforms later announced by the president in August. The near future should show whether the Kuchma-proposed political reform, which is broadly publicized in the state media, represents the true intentions of the head of state, or is merely an empty declaration.

Viktor Stepanenko is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and director of the Center for Public Policy Development.

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