EDITORIAL: Yanukovych takes the reins (11/24/02)

EDITORIAL

Yanukovych takes the reins

Verkhovna Rada Second Vice-Chairman Oleksander Zinchenko was absolutely correct when he told a press conference on November 18 that prime minister-designate Viktor Yanukovych, who would be confirmed by the Parliament three days later, should not be unfairly labeled because in his youth he had been convicted of robbery and assault.

He was right in stating that: "You have to consider his age at the time and the fact that he had been an orphan since the age of 4." In addition, Mr. Zinchenko very properly queried whether a person has the right to make up for past mistakes with current deeds? The obvious answer to that is, of course.

With that established, let us move to a much later period of Mr. Yanukovych's activities - to consider whether it is possible that the chairman of the Donetsk Oblast, a post to which Mr. Yanukovych was appointed in May 1997, had such a charismatic, pervasive and convincing hold over the electorate of the Donbas region that he managed to bring a full-scale turnaround and overwhelming support for the pro-presidential forces in the March parliamentary elections using only fair and transparent democratic methods?

What had previously been a Communist stronghold lost its red coloration so suddenly and with so little prior warning that few believe the elections in Donetsk were even close to free and fair. The region, after all, has seen little economic improvement or any sort of change to suggest that the tide had turned against the Communists who won it handily both in the 1999 presidential race and in the 1998 parliamentary elections. It remains relatively poor, with tiny, odd specks of prosperity scattered about - most notably in the Donetsk city center and the areas where the political and economic clan that rules the region has its bases.

While Mr. Yanukovych cannot be charged with unlawful activity in the March elections until there is concrete proof that he violated specific laws, there are few here who believe he is a reformist democrat. This bull of a man, noted for his straightforward and intimidating manner, is a political manager of the old Soviet school. He believes in getting things done. As he explained in a speech to the Verkhovna Rada just prior to his confirmation vote on November 21, democracy is not an end in itself, but simply a way to achieve results.

"Democracy is an effective management technique, not a tool that results in the weakening of state power," explained Mr. Yanukovych.

The Donetsk Oblast chairman has seen his stock rise quickly as Ukraine has continued to descend into a mire of controversy and political instability. In Ukraine's Parliament, many see his ascending star as a counterbalance to the power currently wielded by President Kuchma's chief of staff, Viktor Medvedchuk. As they explain it, the president has always felt better when he has had the two strongest elements in Ukraine's galaxy of competing oligarchic political and business interests under his control. He is most comfortable when they are in juxtaposition to one another with him as the middleman. You could call it a variation on the Machiavellian philosophy of "divide and conquer."

Others believe the president has decided to mold the 51-year-old Mr. Yanukovych, who has been associated with Mr. Kuchma since he himself was prime minister in 1992, as his successor. These political observers explain that Mr. Kuchma has decided that this longtime political ally is the one person he can fully trust to ensure him a peaceful retirement, much as Russian President Boris Yeltsin picked Vladimir Putin to give him peace of mind in his golden years.

There is also a third school of thought that suggests that the president has decided there is no talking with Mr. Yushchenko about assuming any sort of leading position in government because the former prime minister's close ties to the West, where the president has been effectively isolated, make him untrustworthy. For this reason, any chance that Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Yanukovych might find a political consensus for a new parliamentary majority had to be destroyed by giving the latter the reins of government and the former a swift kick.

At this juncture, it is difficult to determine what the new prime minister, Ukraine's 10th in the last 12 years, will become - another Pavlo Lazarenko, with whom comparisons already have been made, or a reformer in the mold of Mr. Yushchenko, with whom he nearly formed a political partnership. Yet, it is not too early to consider that Mr. Yanukovych's murky record on free and fair elections and his close ties to mysterious businessman Renat Akhmetov, the 36-year-old billionaire who has acted as a Wizard of Oz-like figure in the resurgence of the so-called "Donetsk Clan," make him another in a line of Ukrainian political leaders whose motives and aspirations are open to question. Current indications are that he will not make a serious attempt to bring consensus to Ukrainian politics and, more importantly, will not promote transparent economic reform.

We state this with full understanding that the indiscretions of youth can be forgiven, but with concern that the indiscretions of adulthood cannot. Furthermore, what is good for Mr. Kuchma, is not necessarily good for Ukraine.

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