FACES AND PLACES: New Europe, old Soviets (02/23/03)

FACES AND PLACES

by Myron B. Kuropas

New Europe, old Soviets

While Belgium, France and Germany are fast receding into the internationally irrelevant column, a new Europe is emerging that promises to bring new vigor, understanding and clarity to a weary continent too long dominated by the weak, the lame and the indifferent.

Eight Western European countries have pledged their support of security ties with the U.S. while 10 East European countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonian, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia - the so-called "Vilnius Ten," have decided to join the pro-America club.

"This is only the beginning," Estonia's former prime minister, Mart Laar, declared. "Central Europeans and others won't stand French-style anti-Americanism."

The statement issued by the Vilnius Ten was unambiguous and concise. "Our countries understand the dangers posed by tyranny and the special responsibility of democracies to defend our shared values."

And where is Ukraine in this picture? Leonid Kuchma has just been elected chair of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a kind of mini-Soviet Union with ambitions to become a maxi-Soviet Union. If you hear a loud sucking sound, it's Ukraine being pulled into Russian President Vladimir's Putin's big black hole.

Who are Ukraine's new partners on the international stage? First and foremost there is "Big Brother" Russia, always concerned about "Little Brother" Ukraine. Russia will never be whole again without Ukraine, say Russian leaders. Can closer ties with Russia lead to greater democratization in Ukraine? Hardly. According to Russian Duma member Gregory Yavlinsky: "What we have in Russia today is artificial, sham democracy."

Another charter member of the CIS is Belarus, headed by Alyaksandr Lukashenka since 1994. A model Soviet-style leader, President Lukashenka was supposed to step down after new elections in 1999, but a rigged referendum allowed him to cancel the elections and remain in power. Opposition to Mr. Lukashenka has decreased, especially since opposition leaders in Belarus have a way of disappearing. After curtailing and bullying campaigning by opposition parities, President Lukashenka was re-elected in 2001.

Armenia, headed by Robert Kocharian, also is a CIS member. While not quite as ruthless as Mr. Lukashenka, President Kocharian's style of government remains largely authoritarian.

Then there is Kyrgyzstan, headed by Askar Akayev, a Communist-era apparatchik re-elected in 2000 by a large margin amid allegations of voter fraud.

Tajikistan's president is Imomali Rakhmonov, another Soviet-style leader. Following independence, the Tajiks experienced a civil war as the Communist-dominated government fought off both Islamic fundamentalists and forces organized by a democratic opposition. The fall of the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan brought some respite from Islamist raids.

Azerbaijan, headed by Haydar Aliyev, is perhaps the most progressive of the former Soviet republics. Its pro-Western stance combined with careful management of its resources has made Azerbaijan one of the most attractive of the oil-rich Caspian republics for foreign investors. Even the International Monetary Fund has given high marks to a republic that some believe has accomplished one of the most successful economic transformations ever.

With 60 percent of its foreign trade dependent on Russia, Moldova, headed by Vladimir Voronin, is firmly in Russia's grip. The Communist Party of Moldova overwhelmingly dominated the parliamentary elections of 2001. Today Moldova is considered the poorest country in Europe.

Though President Eduard Shevardnadze continues to be viewed favorably in the West, Georgia is plagued by unemployment, cronyism and corruption. International observers monitoring the 2000 presidential elections noticed widespread irregularities.

The most totalitarian of the former Soviet republics is Turkmenistan, whose leader, Sapamurad Niyazov, was voted president-for-life by his rubber-stamp Parliament in 1999. The personality cult that President Niyazov has instituted in his nation is breath-taking. Cities, an after-shave, even a meteor now bear his name. Statues of the leader have popped up like mushrooms throughout the republic. Even the months of the year have been renamed by order of the president. April, for example, was named after his mother.

Kazakstan is a mixed success story. Its rich oil and mineral resources and a liberalized economy that encourages Western investment, provides Kazakstan with the potential for becoming one of Central Asia's richest countries. Unfortunately, Kazakstan's president is Nursultan Nazarbayev, a man who has led the republic since Soviet times. In 2002 he interfered with the independent media, arrested opposition leaders and made it virtually impossible for new political parties to emerge.

What has Ukraine to gain from its move into a new neighborhood? Little. What has Mr. Kuchma to gain? Much. He himself has indicated that he feels more comfortable with his old Soviet-era buddies than he does with Western leaders who are always making demands on him, such as economic reform, a transparent political and economic system, a free press and a clampdown on corruption. With a little over a year left in office, Mr. Kuchma doesn't need the grief that continued association with Western ideals presents. Ukraine's anti-Western oligarchs support him, and his financial future is secure. His son-in-law has been named one of the 10 richest men in all of Europe.

With no real incentive to change, President Kuchma can ride out the remaining months of his tenure by playing the Russia card and cultivating the oligarchs who made him what he is. Mr. Kuchma's comments about his desire to improve relations with the U.S. are just so much blather.

It is important to note, however, that the Ukrainian Parliament has never ratified the CIS charter so, technically, Ukraine is not a member. At the same, moreover, Mr. Kuchma's opposition has not been cowed. Demonstrations are promised for the near future. And Ukrainians as a whole are still largely pro-Western. Dr. Taras Kuzio informs us that a recent poll conducted by the Washington-based Pew Research Center found that Ukrainians held more favorable views of Americans than did Poles, Bulgarians, Czechs, Russians and Slovaks.

A truly free, open and productive Ukraine is a work in progress. Mr. Kuchma, the oligarchs who support him and Mr. Putin have plans for Ukraine's 2004 elections that will strengthen their power base. Let's hope the opposition also has plans.

Myron Kuropas' e-mail address is: [email protected].

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