Kuzio speaks in New Jersey on Ukraine's course and its future
by Roma Hadzewycz
EAST HANOVER, N.J. - Dr. Taras Kuzio, whose analyses of political developments in Ukraine are published by a variety of news media and scholarly sources, including Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (a source extensively used by The Ukrainian Weekly), spoke on the topic "Whither Ukraine? West or East? Democratic or Authoritarian?" on February 1 here at the Ramada Hotel.
The presentation was sponsored by the Ukrainian American Professionals and Businesspersons Association of New York and New Jersey, whose president, Leonard Mazur, introduced the guest speaker, noting that he is the author of countless articles and several books about contemporary Ukraine.
Dr. Kuzio, who is originally from England, is a resident fellow at the Center for Russian and East European Studies and adjunct professor of the department of political science at the University of Toronto. He also happens to teach Canada's only political science course on post-Soviet Ukraine.
Dr. Kuzio's talk covered topics ranging from foreign affairs and political culture to corruption and Ukraine's presidential elections in 2004.
Speaking of the oftentimes puzzling foreign policy pursued by Ukraine, he cited the old joke that Kyiv's policy is seasonal: in the winter it is pro-Russian due to the country's need for energy resources; and in the spring it is pro-Western.
He went on to note that the political spectrum in Ukraine also is confusing. The names of parties, he pointed out, rarely have anything to do with their ideology; for example, Social Democrats are hardly social democrats, and Greens do not promote environmental interests.
On the issue of corruption, Dr. Kuzio said Ukraine actually has great anti-corruption laws. The problem is that there is no rule of law so these laws are not enforced. In fact, he continued, corruption is allowed for those who are loyal to the administration. Those who fall out of line learn all too quickly that "Ukraine is a blackmail state," he said. That is why, he said, friends of the presidential administration tend to do well in business.
Speaking of a post-Kuchma Ukraine, the analyst said that a Yeltsin-Putin type of succession as occurred in Russia is not possible in Ukraine under the current circumstances. Fully 70 percent of the public, he explained, believe President Leonid Kuchma should resign. Indeed, the president is so unpopular that "anyone designated by Kuchma as his successor finds his political career ending."
At the same time, President Kuchma "is hedging his bets," seeking some sort of immunity once he is out of office and "cementing his closeness with Russia" to that end. Dr. Kuzio said he believes that is one reason Mr. Kuchma took on the role of chairman of the CIS Council of Heads of State - even though he himself had said that the Commonwealth of Independent States is a joke.
As far as political culture is concerned, Dr. Kuzio described Ukraine as a mixture of Eurasian and East-Central European cultures and, thus, in many ways it is the scene of a "clash of civilizations" to use the term coined by Samuel Huntington. Ukraine today is the site of a battle of East-Central European tendencies versus what the speaker called "neo-Soviet" culture. Thus, he concluded, "the issue today is what kind of Ukraine is being built."
At the conclusion of his remarks, Dr. Kuzio answered questions on diverse topics posed by members of the overflow audience in attendance.
Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, February 23, 2003, No. 8, Vol. LXXI
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