Former U.S. envoy to Ukraine sees 2004 elections as pivotal (04/13/03)

Former U.S. envoy to Ukraine sees 2004 elections as pivotal

by Yaro Bihun
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

WASHINGTON - William Green Miller, who was the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1993 to 1998, hopes to see momentous political, economic and societal changes in Ukraine in the near future - provided the democratic forces headed by Viktor Yushchenko can dislodge the "party of power" in the 2004 presidential election.

And if the results of last year's parliamentary elections, recent polls and the present mood of the electorate provide any indication, the former prime minister is in a strong position to do just that.

Ambassador Miller, now a senior policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, spoke about next year's election during a discussion of the possibilities of democratic reform in Ukraine at the Kennan Institute here on March 31.

He said he expects the oligarch-based "party of power" will try to undercut Mr. Yushchenko's popularity and viability as the leading candidate by spreading rumors and disinformation, applying government pressure and harassing his supporters, denying him access to the mass media and using various other means used in past elections. But Ambassador Miller said he doubts it will work this time and suggested that it is in the interest of the West to be concerned and vigilant about how this plays out.

"This is a very critically important election for democratic governance in the former Soviet Union," he stressed. "It could be a disaster, but it seems to me that the path of building towards a democratic society is the more likely one, and we should do everything we can as friends of Ukraine - and certainly as governments - to assist in assuring that the election will be as open, transparent, free and fair as possible."

Mr. Miller says there was a "sea change" in Ukraine's political life in the 2002 election to the Verkhovna Rada, in which the opposition coalition received a majority of the popular vote. And despite the coalition's failure to win control of the Rada - because it was disorganized in the face of some very adept pressure tactics by the "party of power" - the changes at the electoral grass roots cannot be denied, he said.

"Most astute Ukrainian politicians recognize that popular sentiment has changed profoundly, and that the 2004 presidential elections will be the first elections in which the people as a whole will vote for what they think best serves their own interests," he said.

Mr. Miller noted that in previous presidential elections, Leonid Kravchuk and then Leonid Kuchma were elected - even though their own political parties never got more than 6 percent of the vote - because the electorate at large saw them as the best guarantors of Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, the priority considerations at that time.

This enabled their oligarch-based parties to take over the government from the previously almighty and now disarmed Communist Party and preside over the privatization of the country's resources, ensuring that the lion's share went to the few in power in what became something less than an equitable and truly democratic society.

The public saw what was happening, Ambassador Miller said, but until recently it went along, accepting the old dictum, "We have what we have," popularized by President Kravchuk.

The West - the United States, Europe and the international financial institutions - were not innocent bystanders in this process; they let it get out of hand, he said.

"They didn't think through how Ukraine's Soviet structures could be transformed into a democratic society. The whole idea of privatization seemed to be driven by 'de-Sovietization,' a desire to dismantle the Soviet system and a belief that a free market would result in democratic government," Ambassador Miller said.

"That has proven not to be the case, and it has had tragic consequences," he continued. "There has been a great skewing of the economy and the social demography of the economy. It is not a broadly based economic society. It could have been. It is not."

There is widespread corruption, and the people recognize it. "They can smell it," he said. "They know who is corrupt, and they see it affecting their lives."

Ambassador Miller said the resulting sense of injustice and the growing power of electoral freedom are now key and have become the driving force in the political arena today.

Until now, the political structures were strong enough to maintain power despite any dissatisfaction and opposition. But in the coming 2004 presidential election, he said, with no one even close to Viktor Yushchenko in popularity, the earlier levels of machinations used by the party in power will not suffice.

The electorate remembers that Prime Minister Yushchenko's government "was the only one that delivered," paying workers' back wages and pensions. If Mr. Yushchenko can convince them that he can once again deliver what they seek, he will win in 2004, Mr. Miller stated.

It is still not clear what kind of society is now emerging in Ukraine and what kind of political economy will evolve there, the former ambassador to Ukraine said. Until now, in the national debate such issues were considered "theoretical" and kept at the bottom of the political agenda. Only now are they are coming to the fore, he commented.

Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine coalition is well positioned to take Ukraine in a new direction, Mr. Miller said.

"I think it's a healthy coalition; it's broadly based; it really does extend throughout the spectrum of social thinking, economic thought and political thought." At times, it includes the Communists and, on the other end of the spectrum, the entrepreneurs and even some oligarchs, he added.

"I think it can work because I saw it work in 1996. The debate and the conclusion of the Constitution was proof that very, very different ideas about how society should be organized and governed were bridged by a document that for Ukrainians is an important understanding of what they think is possible," he said. "I think what's been missing has been a leadership that believes in the Constitution."

Ambassador Miller said he expects to see a unified democratic party coalescing after the 2004 victory in the presidential election, and it will be formed not only from the top-down but from the grass-roots level up as well. Then, for the first time, he said, Ukraine will have leaders who believe in the "noble aspirations" enshrined in the 1996 Constitution of Ukraine.

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