ANALYSIS: Can newly appointed defense minister jump-start Ukraine's military reform? (07/13/03)

ANALYSIS

Can newly appointed defense minister jump-start Ukraine's military reform?

by Askold Krushelnycky
RFE/RL Newsline

The recent ouster of Ukraine's Defense Minister Volodymyr Shkidchenko was not unexpected. President Leonid Kuchma had upbraided him several times recently for failing to initiate reforms to modernize the country's huge but inefficient army. Mr. Kuchma had also blamed Gen. Shkidchenko for what he said was evidence of widespread corruption seen during a surprise visit to Ukrainian military units in Crimea. There also has been speculation that Minister Shkidchenko was removed because his political enemies thought he was too pro-Western.

President Kuchma accepted Minister Shkidchenko's resignation and on June 25 appointed the secretary of the National Defense and Security Council, Yevhen Marchuk, as Ukraine's new defense minister.

Leonid Poliakov is the military programs director at the independent Razumkov Center think tank in Kyiv. Mr. Poliakov said he believes Gen. Shkidchenko did not have - or chose not to exercise - the political skills to defend himself. "Gen. Shkidchenko stood out by his professionalism and decency," Mr. Poliakov told RFE/RL. "Therefore, I think that the main reason for the changes is political. I'm not sure about the exact reason for the change, but it seemed inevitable it would happen sooner or later because it was difficult for a military personage like Mr. Shkidchenko to remain in the political role of minister of defense. He tried to avoid politics, but the defense minister is a political role and sooner or later he was going to be sacrificed."

Mr. Kuchma says Mr. Marchuk's tasks are to bring the army under civilian control and to transform Europe's second-largest military force (after Germany) into a much smaller and more modern volunteer force. Presently, the Ukrainian army is made up mainly of poorly motivated and badly paid conscripts. They live in shoddy barracks where they are often bullied and where even proper food is lacking.

Politicians and soldiers agree the Ukrainian military is grossly under-funded, which has led to poor training and sloppy standards blamed for a string of fatal accidents in recent years. These accidents include a stray missile that exploded in an apartment block in the capital, and another missile error that destroyed a Russian civilian airliner, killing 78 people. Last year, 80 spectators died when a military plane crashed at an air show in Lviv.

In contrast to his predecessor, the man now responsible for restoring the military's reputation and introducing radical reforms has proven himself to be - since Ukraine's independence in 1991 - one of the country's most ambitious and skillful politicians.

The 62-year-old Mr. Marchuk has displayed not only an ability to adapt to different circumstances but extensive political survival skills, as well. Mr. Marchuk spent most of his career working for the Soviet secret police, the KGB, which he joined in 1963 after graduating from a pedagogical institute. In 1990 he became first deputy chairman of the KGB in Ukraine. From November 1991 to July 1994, Mr. Marchuk worked as the head of the newly formed Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), where he achieved the rank of general.

But the world of politics beckoned in 1994. He served as prime minister from June 1995 to May 1996, when he was fired by President Kuchma.

Mr. Marchuk ran for president against Mr. Kuchma in 1999. On the eve of the first round of elections, he spoke on RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, condemning President Kuchma and warning of disaster for Ukraine if Mr. Kuchma won. But after Mr. Marchuk failed to gain enough votes to proceed into the second round, he switched his support to President Kuchma, who was re-elected. Mr. Kuchma appointed Marchuk as secretary of the National Defense and Security Council in November 1999.

Mr. Poliakov of the Razumkov think-tank said that, at first glance, Mr. Marchuk's background suits his new job. "Mr. Marchuk, Gen. Marchuk, is an experienced and intelligent man. In principle, if other factors didn't intervene, he'd be a good candidate for the post of defense minister," he said.

But Mr. Poliakov said Mr. Marchuk is not affiliated with any powerful political grouping in the Verkhovna Rada and that, without political support, he will be unable to get the large financial resources needed to bring about significant reforms in the army. Mr. Poliakov said this lack of support in Parliament may doom Mr. Marchuk.

"They [Parliament] determine financial questions and enact the relevant legislation, and if there isn't going to be support from Parliament, then what happened earlier - when the president announced reform programs which were not backed by financial resources - will continue. And if that continues, it will be difficult to introduce any radical changes. There might be some changes that don't require much cash, but it's impossible to build a modern army without big investments," Mr. Poliakov explained.

But Mr. Marchuk is not without political clout. He controls one of Ukraine's largest newspapers, Den, and is rumored to have influence over many leading politicians because of what he knows about them from intelligence files.

Mr. Marchuk has been one of the main proponents of Ukraine's entry into NATO since President Kuchma last year announced his country's intention to join the military alliance. Mr. Marchuk's appointment has been welcomed by NATO, where he is known as an erudite and well-informed member of Ukraine's political elite. However, Ukraine has not gotten far in its efforts to join NATO, due mainly to President Kuchma's battles against allegations of corruption, abuse of human rights and an offer to sell weapons to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Mr. Poliakov said other issues also make Ukraine unattractive to NATO at the moment. "It's not just a question of individuals or the issue of selling weapons to Iraq. The problem is that it's impossible to separate the military sphere from the political and economic aspects of entry into NATO because political and economic issues are the most important in this respect. And here [in Ukraine], we have dishonest elections, the abuse of power by officials and problems in the justice and law enforcement systems. So I'd say that although it's a military alliance, when NATO sees how we behave, especially in the military sphere, then there obviously isn't much trust toward such a country," he said.

Mr. Marchuk, who is fluent in English and German, seems at ease when dealing with international issues and has demonstrated that he is realistic about Ukraine's chances of joining NATO. He says it will take at least eight to 10 years and that Ukraine must double the amount it spends on the military before entry can conceivably occur.

Askold Krushelnycky is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Prague.

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