ANALYSIS: Kuchma's Independence Day speech presents new political reform plan (09/07/03)

ANALYSIS

Kuchma's Independence Day speech presents new political reform plan

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Speaking to the nation on August 23, the eve of Ukraine's Independence Day, President Leonid Kuchma said he is ready to support a new constitutional reform plan that was agreed upon with the opposition during consultations earlier this month.

"Despite certain drawbacks, I believe this draft law has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, as I think it will almost certainly be supported by a constitutional majority [300 votes in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada]," he said.

The previous day, Ukrainian media reported that Mr. Kuchma withdrew the political reform draft bill he submitted to the parliament in June.

The Ukrainian president did not reveal any details regarding the new plan for overhauling the constitutional system in the country. He asserted only that "a parliamentary-presidential form of rule is best suited to the political psychology and the political archetype of our people." And he noted that future presidents should "guarantee civil rights and represent the state on the international arena."

But some details were supplied last week by Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz and Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko, who reportedly held several meetings with presidential administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk in August to discuss the new political-reform draft.

Mr. Moroz said the new plan suggests that Parliament confirm the prime minister and all Cabinet ministers. The prime minister will propose all Cabinet members, except for the defense minister and the foreign affairs minister, both of whom are to be nominated by the president. The president is to appoint the procurator-general, who must subsequently be approved by the Verkhovna Rada. The president and the Parliament are to appoint the Constitutional Court and the National Council for Broadcasting on a parity basis. The president is to have the right to veto parliamentary bills.

Mr. Moroz also divulged that a key innovation is the presidential administration's proposal that the Verkhovna Rada elect the president. He said he opposes this scheme and opts for a direct presidential ballot.

Meanwhile, Mr. Symonenko said the Communists want the current election law to apply to the 2004 presidential election, but are in favor of reducing the president's mandate from five to two years. Mr. Symonenko added that a new Parliament, if elected under a fully proportional system, could elect a new president for a full term in 2006.

What is also important, is that the new constitutional reform draft reportedly drops President Kuchma's previous proposal that presidential, parliamentary and local elections be held in the same year. This proposal was widely seen by the opposition and political analysts as a legalistic ruse intended to prolong Mr. Kuchma's remaining time in power by two or three years.

The new plan seemingly does not provide a political role for Mr. Kuchma after his second presidential term ends in November 2004. But some Ukrainian analysts suggest that if President Kuchma rejects the future of a political pensioner, he can try to seek the post of prime minister, whom the new plan makes the central political figure in the country. And some speculate that he even could seek the post of president in 2006, following a two-year break.

The Constitution of Ukraine in its current wording prohibits one person from serving more than two consecutive presidential terms, but it does not restrict the number of presidential terms for the same person.

It is apparent that the new political reform plan - at least in the intention of the presidential administration - aims at preventing Our Ukraine leader Viktor Yushchenko, the country's most popular politician, from becoming the president in 2004. Jointly, the pro-presidential majority, the Socialists, and the Communists can muster the 300 votes required to push constitutional reform through Parliament. If the Verkhovna Rada approves the plan with the stipulation that the president is to be elected by Parliament, Mr. Yushchenko seems to have no chance of being elected.

On the other hand, if the "Symonenko option" - electing the president in a direct ballot in 2004 for two years - prevails, Yushchenko might become an "interim" president, but with essentially curtailed prerogatives, if compared with those of Mr. Kuchma.

Even if this new plan eventually collapses, as have several former attempts on the part of President Kuchma to revamp the constitutional system, its launching nonetheless seems to be a political master stroke on the part of the authorities. Some Ukrainian commentators suggest that Medvedchuk is the originator of this plan and the main driving force behind it.

First, the plan placed in the same "working team" presidential aide Mr. Medvedchuk with Messrs. Moroz and Symonenko, both of whom not so long ago were involved in a fierce campaign intended to oust President Kuchma. The presidential administration seems to have managed to drive a significant wedge between Mr. Yushchenko on one side and Messrs. Moroz and Symonenko on the other, thus creating additional obstacles to any future alliance of these three.

Second, the unexpected alliance of the pro-presidential centrists with the not-so-long-ago anti-presidential leftists creates brighter prospects for Mr. Kuchma himself to avoid political and/or legal responsibility for his deeds after the end of his political career.

Third, the plan also seems to play into the hands of Medvedchuk, who stands no real chance of being elected president either by direct ballot of by Parliament, but may well apply after the end of Mr. Kuchma's tenure for other important political jobs - for instance, as leader of a parliamentary majority or Parliament chairman.

No doubt, this new plan also presents a serious dilemma to Mr. Yushchenko about what to do now. Mr. Yushchenko said last week that a presidential model of government for today's Ukraine is more efficient that a parliamentary-presidential one - which is no surprise, given his presidential ambitions. The real problem, however, is whether he will now be able to convince other important political players that he is right. One such player is Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych who, according to Ukrainian observers, is harboring strong presidential ambitions and, therefore, is not likely to seek the post of a figurehead in 2004.

On top of everything else, President Kuchma's latest constitutional reform proposal is set to dominate the political agenda in Ukraine after the summer vacation, involving both the pro-presidential and opposition forces in the Verkhovna Rada in a predictably ferocious battle over the redistribution of political power. "Almost half of [Ukraine's] GDP is produced in the shadows," Mr. Kuchma lamented in his Independence Day speech. But his political-reform plan will hardly contribute to changing this lamentable situation. As many times in the past, during the upcoming political season the problem of socioeconomic power in Ukraine will almost certainly be left in the shadows.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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